Solfun. Troll's growth: fundamentals versus technical analysis500% in one day — and not a single clue on the chart
The Troll token gained more than 500% in one day. Such movements are not uncommon for the Solana memetoken market, but this case is indicative. If someone had tried to predict the growth using technical analysis, they would have been left with nothing:
there were no patterns on the chart;
there was no break in the structure;
the indicators were silent
The reason is simple — most new tokens on Solana don't even have a trading history to build technical analysis on. In addition, the average meme token rarely lasts more than a week, and a significant portion of projects turn out to be scams.
In the case of Troll, the impetus was not the chart at all, but a Twitter post from the Pump.fun account mentioning the token. It was this factor that triggered a wave of purchases, which led to a 750% increase at its peak.
When the chart is silent, fundamentals speak
In the world of memecoins, fundamental analysis is a quick snapshot of key metrics that can be checked in the first minutes of a token's existence:
supply distribution;
the share of bots among holders;
activity on social networks;
the presence of suspicious large addresses.
If you answer each of these metrics for yourself, you can already form a basic understanding: is the token worth paying attention to, or is it better to pass it by?
You can either collect all the necessary data yourself or switch to automation by using a cumulative integral indicator that combines all of this into a single number — the token's reliability percentage.
This percentage is a key metric that many traders rely on when making decisions. It is formed from a whole set of factors:
uniformity of token distribution;
degree of decentralization;
real audience activity;
abnormal transactions;
dynamics of interest on social networks.
This is the percentage that many traders look at first: if it is below 20% , the project is immediately rejected.
Automation instead of manual analysis
Collecting such data manually takes too long. By the time a trader checks the distribution of supply, holders, and activity on social media, the desired deal may already be gone. Therefore, the market has gradually shifted to automation.
There are now many browser extensions that analyze tokens and indicate the final reliability percentage instead of the trader.
In my case, SolFun is just one such tool, a standard within the Solana ecosystem. The extension is built directly into the Pump.fun interface, works in real time, and aggregates key metrics into one convenient indicator.
In the case of Troll, SolFun showed 61% reliability — a high level for a new token amid a flood of daily scam projects.
Conclusion
The story with Troll is just an illustration of a general pattern in the Solana memetoken market: technical analysis is often useless. What matters here is the speed of obtaining information and the ability to quickly filter the flow of projects. Either manual work or connecting automation in the form of SolFun and other extensions.
The speed of analysis is especially important in an environment where every extra hour can cost you a missed deal.
