USDTRY-NEUTRAL I am just making it a habit to place fresh chart. The view same, and likely will remain the same until we see real action.
Remain SHORT medium-term 13.50-13.75 and add on way up if seen. Objective eventually 10.50 - 9.0000.
TRYUSD trade ideas
USDTRY- 14Feb2022USDTRY- 14Feb2022
On the weekly, this week will be the 7th week that USDTRY is consolidating sideways. If it fails to breakout higher either this week or next, we could expect it to drop back to 20EMA at 20.32
On the H4, price seems to have broken above the upper trendline wedge. As long as price can stay above this upper trendline, it is likely to once again bounce higher to retest the pivot at 13.620 level.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY 4 hour chartThis is a test chart for my modified predictive indicator.
The stops and trade entry points on the chart are for hypothetical and practice trading.
Down flag on long termDown flag on long term
So usdtry most likely will go up more and more unless break down trend of flag by closing one day candle
Silent Before the Perfect StormUSDTRY is as stable as rock!
-The war in Ukraine? who care!
- FED Taper?? who cares!!
- Growing budget deficit?? who the f. cares?
USDTRY will skyrocket soon. I believe CBT and state banks will be able to stabilize it until autumn, then boom boom boom...
USDTRY-NEUTRAL with SELL biasNo change in view. I am just posting the chart to keep it a daily habit, but no doubt, not much new to tell.
medium-term SELL 13.50-14.50-15.50 for move to 10.50 and finally 9.0000.
USDTRY- 11Feb2022USDTRY- 11Feb2022
On the H4, price is pulling back after testing the 13.62 pivot few days back. It's market structure has changed to lower highs and lower lows with Stochastic having room for slight further downside before support.
On the H1, price have closed below all 3 MAs, we could expect it to have a short-term pull back to interim support at 13.3250.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY-NEUTRAL - LONG TERM SELLDaily am repeating the same story, but at least we got a fresh chart to view.
No change in view, and yes, as some have noted, they are keeping the currency pair within a narrow band.
I guess until such time the market has enough of it and will devise then the next move.
Medium-term we remain SHORT for a move to 10.50-9.00 which not everyone accepts as a possibility. The monthly chart is OVEBROUGHT and quite extreme, so we still need to reduce this pressure and that is why it is very possible to see this low.
USDTRY- 10Feb2022USDTRY- 10Feb2022
On the H4, price is pulling back after testing the 13.62 pivot few days back. Overall, USDTRY is still on an uptrend in the larger timeframe. If price close below the 13.50 area, we could expect USDTRY to have a short-term pull back.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USD/TRY: the instrument develops flat dynamicsCurrent trend
The US dollar shows ambiguous trading dynamics against the Turkish lira, remaining around the level of 13.500 for quite a long time.
Activity on the instrument remains quite low, as trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions before the publication of important macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the US next Thursday. Analysts' forecasts suggest further growth of indicators, which is likely to become an additional argument for the US Federal Reserve in favor of a more active increase in interest rates. At the moment, market participants are arguing about the level of their adjustments at the next meeting of the regulator: whether the increase will be 50 basis points or limited to a weaker 25 basis points and how many rate hikes will be implemented in 2022.
As for the positions of the Turkish currency, it still depends on the rhetoric of the country's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who insists on further continuation of the loose monetary policy. Since September, Turkey's central bank has cut interest rates by 500 basis points, while policymakers in other developing countries are adjusting them upward to keep inflation from picking up. In January, the growth of consumer prices in the country was recorded around 48.7%. However, at a meeting on January 20, the regulator left the current monetary policy parameters unchanged and the rate itself at 14%. Experts believe that the current position of the authorities makes the national currency the most vulnerable, and it is likely to continue to decline against the backdrop of the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate hike cycle.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands move flat. The price range practically does not change but corresponds to the current trend of the instrument. The MACD indicator decreases, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached 80 and reversed into a downwards plane, which, however, correlates with the real dynamics of the instrument slightly.
Resistance levels: 13.661, 13.851, 13.939.
Support levels: 13.526, 13.428, 13.343, 13.260.
USDTRY- NEUTRAL without a view :)No changes at all. Steady as it goes without much motion.
I see the medium-term as a SELL INTO RALLY between 13.50-14.50-15.50 and 16.50 for eventual move to 10.50 - 9.0000.
USDTRY-NEUTRAL Clearly no movement till now within the known range.
Just focus on medium-term SELL only at different levels and add to it feels best strategy for this moment. SELL levels are 13.50-14.25-15.50 and 16.50. Eventually a return back to 10.50 medium-term before we will review and see what happens next.
USDTRY- 08Feb2022USDTRY- 08Feb2022
On the H4, price is approaching the crucial level at 13.62 once more. If the price close above it could potentially swing towards 1st Resistance at 14.225.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY- NEUTRALITY REMAINSNothing to add or to say.
If medium-term player SELL for 11.80 - 10.50 only... on upside 13.89 is key now.
Stay out of it, unless medium-term or long-term player for now.
USDTRY Consolidation Will Likely End, Followed By A Gap UpTrade Idea
Looking into the USDTRY the chart looks to be ready to start a breakout in the upward direction. The main indicator here is the Bond Rate (Turkey), which is much lower than 1. Typically, when the indicator is below 1, USDTRY moves up substantially.
Economics:
Turkey itself is a Country with huge inflation issues, and other economic crisis so in short, it shouldn't be surprising to see the market gap the USDTRY up.
Profit
USDTRY I believe has one of the highest potential gains in the current market. I believe a 10% move up on the USDTRY is going to happen, a 10% gap up without leverage is insane. Given how volatile the market is I wouldn't be surprised to see USDTRY push Alltime Highs sooner or later.
USDTRY- 07Feb2022USDTRY- 07Feb2022
On the weekly, this week is the 6th week USDTRY is consolidating sideways.
On the H4, price have bounce back above all 3 MAs.13.62 remains the crucial pivot where if the price close above it could potentially swing towards 1st Resistance at 14.225.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY 4 Hour ChartThis is a test chart for my modified predictive indicator.
The red arrows are stops.
High and Low points can occur on the white vertical line (Daily Swing Prediction line) or within three candles on either side of a white vertical line
The trade is entered when a candle crosses the White vertical line (Daily Swing Prediction line) and there is a change in candle color. After the candle color change the first candle to be completely captured by the 4 MA is the trade entry candle.
The trade is exited when a candle crosses the White vertical line (Daily Swing Prediction line) and there is a change in candle color. After the color change the first candle to be completely captured by the 4 MA is the trade exit candle.
USDTRY- 04Feb2022USDTRY- 04Feb2022
On the H4, price have bounce back above all 3 MAs.13.62 remains the crucial pivot where if the price close above it could potentially swing towards 1st Resistance at 14.225.
This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
USDTRY- SELL strategyThe daily chart is a RANGE only with resistance 13.85 and if broken for any meaningful upwards move.
The weekly chart is MID WAY and we have FIB. supports and resistances to play with (as shown).
Judging MONTHLY CHART and WEEKLY CHART it feels we should be on SELL side, even if it moves little higher, these are ADDING levels only. I suggest SELL 13.50-15.50 range for a corrective move to 10.50. The MONTHLY chart has had no correction really, and the RSI of 86.0 is very overbought, and usually we need the RSI to go back to 60.0 or lower to relieve the pressure.
the market is for that reason still LONG USD and an objective of 10.50 or lower 9.50 is still very much on the cards from a medium-term prespective. short-term we have no specific direction for now.
around 14.3Turkey in financial crisis.
if usd/lira cross 14.3, nothing can hinder it from 22 target rate.
political disaster of President will cause huge inflation result in turkey economy.
USDTRY 6H (it try to break the resistance)Us Dollar vs Turkish lira, now it look to the new direction by breaking 13.82 will be upward.
But under 13.00 will be downward ....
Upward: above 13.30
Tp.: 13.60 & 14.20 & 15.5
Sl.: 13.30
