AAPL Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16AAPL Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesized analysis of the AAPL data and the five model reports:
──────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI Report – Observes a slightly recovered 5‐minute bounce but a generally volatile, declining daily trend. – Notes bearish technicals (price below EMAs, RSI recovering from oversold levels but MACD still below signal) and mixed sentiment (max pain at $202.50 with heavy put volume). – Recommends a trade on the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and proximity (–2.60% from current price).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Highlights AAPL trading below key EMAs with persistent bearish momentum on both short and daily timeframes and a downtrend of –17% over 30 days. – Points out oversold conditions on the 5‑minute chart with continuing bearish pressure on the daily charts, alongside caution from negative news. – Chooses the $190 PUT as the best blend of risk and reward given its liquidity and technical setup.
• Gemini/Google Report – Emphasizes AAPL’s price below intraday and daily EMAs, with the short-term bounce near the lower Bollinger Band offering a minor contradiction. – Underlines strong bearish sentiment supported by high VIX and negative news, while noting resistance at the call side. – Recommends a bearish pick – the $187.50 PUT – though with a similar rationale as the others (i.e. trading just out‐of‐the‐money to capture a move).
• Llama/Meta Report – Notes bearish indicators including price under moving averages, low RSI, and MACD below the signal line. – Recognizes key support and resistance levels (supports near $194 and resistance near $197) and the opposing pressure suggested by max pain. – Ends up favoring a moderately bearish setup with the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and risk profile.
• DeepSeek Report – Reviews the technical and sentiment picture and concludes a moderately bearish position, underscored by negative news and broad put interest. – Emphasizes that a break from near-term support (around $194) could steer the price toward the $190 area. – Also recommends the $190 PUT, noting that its setup offers a reasonable risk/reward profile.
────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: – All reports agree that AAPL is trading in a bearish environment overall, with price below key moving averages and a downtrend on daily charts. – There is a common focus on the options chain, where puts at or below $190 are highly liquid and carry significant open interest. – Every model, despite minor nuances, leans toward buying a naked PUT as the trade idea for this weekly options expiry. – All analysts recommend an entry at market open.
• Disagreement: – One model (Gemini/Google) slightly deviates by suggesting a $187.50 PUT as an alternative to $190, while the majority favor the $190 strike. – The exact profit target and stop‐loss levels differ somewhat between models, but all align on the general risk controls and short-term nature due to weekly expiration.
────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED TRADE
Overall Market Direction: • Consensus is moderately bearish. Despite a brief short-term bounce noted on the intraday charts, the dominant trend and negative news sentiment favor further downside.
Recommended Trade: • Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked PUT option on AAPL • Expiration: Weekly (April 17, 2025) • Strike and Price: The $190 PUT (with an Ask around $0.83; it is about 2.60% below the current price) • Strategy Rationale: – This strike is liquid (high volume and open interest) and is supported by the bearish bias from momentum indicators and negative sentiment. – Although the premium of ~$0.83 is a bit above the preferred $0.30–$0.60 band, it is justified by the sharper risk/reward setup in this environment. • Entry Timing: At market open • Proposed Risk/Reward: – Profit Target: Approximately a 50% gain on the premium (target near $1.25) – Stop-Loss: Approximately a 50% loss on the premium (stop-loss near $0.42) • Confidence Level: 70% • Key Risks and Considerations: – A brief intraday bounce (short-term oversold recovery) could push prices above support, triggering the stop-loss. – Any unexpected news or a reversal in overall market sentiment may rapidly alter the risk profile given the short-dated expiration. – Monitor price action closely at open, as weekly options are particularly sensitive to early volatility.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "AAPL", "direction": "put", "strike": 190.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.25, "stop_loss": 0.42, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.83, "entry_timing": "open" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
