CCO trade ideas
Uranium - Light at the end of the tunnel?I don´t think there is a sector that is more hated than uranium. Everything looks very bleak. This is a true contrarian bet.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
CCJ - Long term Elliott Wave using Truncated 5thIf we accept that the Primary 5th wave was truncated by a black swan event, then we have a possibly correction that ended at Y. Shows potential to bottom out near $8.00.
5 to A
28.16
B to C
18.35
Nov 2016 Wave C has a length of at least 61.8% of wave A ( Oct 15.26% '11), gives 8.17 target. Actual 7.40
w1-3 = $53.96
w5 = $32.89
W5 often equals 62% of w1-3, which gives $33.45 projected move. Actual move = $33
If wave 3 indeed shows a nearly vertical rise or decline, then draw a trend line connecting wave 2 and 4 and draw a parallel line from wave 1.
This parallel line will cut through wave 3 and will target wave 5
Further supporting evidence - Truncated 5ths are usually associated with black swan events.
W to X is a bit weird?
CAMECO LONG position breakout falling wedge consolidation soonForever low
Strong impulse
Wedge consolidation , Reversed head and shouldes formation
Next impulse expected soon
Cameco: How low can it go? PART2My previous post getting too cluttered now...
Still looking to buy CCJ
CCJ wave e circle complete or near completionOnce wave e circle (green scale) is complete price should continue to 1 (red scale), then expect a correction, three waves down or five wave sideways.
CCJ Bullish SwingGood gap yesterday. Thought I had published this already but just noticed I did not. Didn't necessarily expect it to trigger today like it did. Should still be able to get entered in tomorrow. I expect a little bit more of a retest of the support line.
Ultimate target is 13.32
Cameco LONG and 600% profit! Or everyone forgot about nucleus...10 years down...
Nuclear energy now is not fashionable.
The nuclear industry is now not popular.
Everyone forgot about it...
A good opportunity to buy cheap $11, cheap leader. With the goal $66 and earn 600%, probably will $8, good chance 825% $14 key level. Secured OVER $14 then $66 in your pocket:)
The idea is not canceled! No stops! It is not trade, it is the possession!
Enterprise Value/EBITDA 9.20
Debt/EBITDA 1.4
Not too cheap, but the company will increase EBITDA and will be growing!
Important remind: Stock - is not a line in the terminal, but a share in a real company! There will always be people who will want this share to increase!
CCO, uranium premium choice for 2017I am in one of the biggest uranium producer in Canada.
With development of central around the world this year, demand should be on the rise.
Half position in with confirmation above downtrend channel
CCJ is it worth? 5th time hitting resistance on the 1 week chart
nice consolidation on the 4 hour chart
As always nice risk to reward
