MX trade ideas
Methanex Corporation (MEOH)Methanex Soars: How Strategic Moves and Methanol Demand Surge Propel MEOH to New Heights!
Introduction:
Methanex Corporation, the world's largest methanol producer, has shown remarkable resilience and strategic savvy in a challenging market environment. Despite a slight dip in revenue and earnings per share in Q4 2023, the company's shares have risen by 13.3% over the last six months, outpacing both the industry and broader market indices. This analysis delves into the factors behind Methanex's performance, highlighting its recent financial results, growth drivers, and future prospects.
Revenue and Profit Forecasts:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Methanex reported revenue of $922 million, a 6.5% year-over-year decline, with earnings per share (EPS) falling to $0.52 from $0.73 in the previous year. Despite this, the company's performance exceeded Wall Street's expectations, with a significant EPS surprise of +85.71% over the consensus estimate. This performance underscores Methanex's ability to navigate market volatilities effectively.
Growth Drivers:
Several key factors have contributed to Methanex's robust performance:
- Increased Methanol Demand: Particularly from China, fueled by growth in fuel applications and Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) operations.
- Strategic Project Advancements: The Geismar 3 project is a highlight, expected to enhance Methanex's asset portfolio and cash generation capabilities.
- Financial Strength and Flexibility: Methanex's solid liquidity position and strong cash flow generation are pivotal in funding its strategic growth initiatives and returning value to shareholders through dividends.
Recent Financial Performance:
Methanex's financial health is reflected in its ability to surpass earnings expectations consistently, with an impressive average earnings surprise of 53.4% over the past four quarters. This trend is supported by an upward revision in the 2023 earnings consensus estimate, indicating analyst confidence in Methanex's continued performance.
Technical and Market Outlook:
The stock's positive trajectory over the past six months, despite broader industry challenges, speaks volumes about Methanex's market position and investor confidence. With strategic initiatives like the Geismar 3 project on track and a strong focus on meeting the surging global demand for methanol, Methanex is well-positioned for sustained growth.
Conclusion:
Methanex Corporation stands out as a resilient and strategically focused player in the methanol industry. Its ability to exceed financial expectations, coupled with strong growth drivers and a commitment to shareholder value, makes MEOH a compelling case for investors looking for stability and growth in the materials sector. As Methanex continues to navigate market challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities, it remains a notable company to watch in the coming months.
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NOT TRADING ADVICE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
MEOH Train is Leaving the StationWeekly Chart:
Very recognizable Major Trendline drawn frpm point 1 to point 2. and broke down on COVID19 declines:
Besides the Major Up Trend, note that the price broke up the Down Trendline (the White one) of the Down Secondary Trend:
Daily Chart:
The Orange Trendline - Major UP Trendline
The White Trendline - Secondary DOWN Trendline
The Yellow Trendline - Minor UP Trendline
We Have Very Buliish phenomenon here:
1. Note The Strong Accumilation which strated after COVID19 Bottom on March, Followed by HUGE Volume :
2. The Recent Minor Moves emphasizing the Strong Bullish hands behind the move:
-The return of the price above the Major UP Trendline, and New Solid Higher Bottom established on that line.
-Strong Breakout of the Secondary Down Trendline - Which Calling for the end of that trend, and continuation of the Major Up Trend.
-Successive Higher Bottoms and Higher Highs.
3. Moving Average Long Signal:
-The MA50 Crossed MA200 and signaling change of the trend to the upper side.
The Next test for the trend is waiting on 30.34 Resistance level.
But as i see it, the Trustful power of the buyers prove itself to take the price much further ahead.
A Very Solid Take Profit point will be 41 - note the change of rules from support to resistance.
In any case of Scenario change, 30.34 should be an exit point.
Good Luck!
MX - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about Methanex Corp and its current landscape.
Methanex Corp is the largest producer and supplier of methanol worldwide that has an exciting landscape ahead, as the demand of China it's likely to continue to grow, combined with the cheaper Natural Gas which makes methanol more price competitive, and the most recent China endeavor on the sector into the U.S it's set to fail. These events might attract more attention and interest to the Methanex business.
In terms of pricing, a gallon of methanol costs $1.13, cheaper than gasoline that costs $2.609. The price has been so competitive due to the lower prices of natural gas, which its the base to produce the methanol, this competitive price of methanol has the potential to reshape the fuel demand as its adoption can be essential to overcome the rising prices of Crude Oil.
Despite that, the demand from China it's likely to continue to grow as have been doing for almost a decade now, as hopes from China to have more independence on its methanol supply needs have been frustrated by a Federal Lawsuit filed yesterday. The Lawsuit aims to stop Northwest Innovation Works a U.S. company owned by the Chinese government, to build a $2 billion methanol refinery on Washington. The initiative to stop the venture was started by several groups of Environmental Activists and will most likely bury the project and let China more depending, on Methanex Corp supply which might be positive for the company future results and growth.
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Disclaimer: All content of Golden Dragon has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
Solid Daily Oversold Buy Methanex is in a strong monthly uptrend but recently dipped oversold on the daily time-frame and flashed a buy signal. Adding to the bullishness, the recent daily range-expansion sell bar on 1/16 failed to meet its downside target. The chemical company has a FCF yield of 12%+, and the stop level is 1.5x daily ATR.
If you're interested in the methodology used above, stop by the Key Hidden Levels chat room. Posts are for my personal notes only