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TSLA trade ideas

TESLA is up 47X vs the SPX. Can it do another 6.9X?An extraordinary unicorn enterprise, or a collection of companies and intellectual properties, led by the most prominent CEO in the history of public companies. TESLA and ELON are impossible to overlook, and this chart has kept many observers on the sidelines for over 14 years. In the initial 6 to 9 years, Wall Street analysts and commentators failed to grasp the bigger picture, focusing excessively on the balance sheet and evaluating the company merely as an automaker. They completely missed the groundbreaking technologies being developed and advanced. Today, we stand on the brink of fully autonomous vehicles becoming commonplace, artificial intelligence integrating into our everyday lives, and affordable space exploration becoming a reality, not to mention the myriad of other innovative technologies emerging from this remarkable company. Individuals often enjoy predicting market peaks and labeling stocks as overvalued. However, this chart comparing Tesla to the S&P 500 indicates that the stock may be gearing up for another surge to new heights. Picture 10 million robotaxis cruising through our streets. Envision a fleet of vehicles that not only generates income but also undergoes upgrade cycles, in contrast to traditional cars that face maintenance cycles, and are bogged down by Human operator's. This development is poised to significantly transform the self-hailing ride-sharing market and the food delivery sector, potentially eliminating the role of human drivers. In fact, Uber could very well become Tesla's largest client!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by BallaJi
27
Tesla Is Retail Traders' Choice, JPMorgan Says. Are You Buying?Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA has endured a soul-crushing experience over the past three months or so. The stock is down 50% from the record high of $480 hit in December (more than $700 billion in market cap washed out). Even insiders have sold a big chunk of their holdings. But over the past three weeks (12 trading days to be precise), investment bank JPMorgan NYSE:JPM says, retail traders just couldn't get enough of it. Retail net buying activity in TSLA stock. Source: JPMorgan They’ve consistently been buying the dip, and then the dip of the dip and then… you get it. Every new dip is seen as a buying opportunity to the daredevils among us who try to catch a falling knife. In the latest issue of “Retail Radar” — JPMorgan’s weekly report revealing where the retail money is flowing — the banking giant traced a net $12.5 billion of retail cash poured into stocks or stock-related investments last week. As much as $4.2 billion went into ETFs (diversification, nice), where a cocktail of ETFs with a broad selection of stocks took the lion’s share along with some gold ETFs . Still, the big chunk of the pie went into individual equities — $8.3 billion of cold hard cash was injected into the retail-trading darlings Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and other Mag 7 members. 🤿 Buying the Dip Here’s what the bank said: “Single stocks accounted for +$8.3B of the inflow. TSLA (+$3.2B, +3.5z) and NVDA (+$1.9B, +1.1z) collectively contributed more than half, and the rest of Mag 7 contributed another $1B. Notably, they have been buying TSLA for 12 consecutive days, adding $7.3B in total.” The 3.5z and the 1.1z describe the standard deviation of the retail traders’ net flows compared to the 12-month average. (Keep reading, it gets even better.) Did you hear that? Tesla dominated the charts. Day trading bros have kicked in a total of $7.3 billion into Elon Musk’s EV maker over the past 12 cash sessions. It even won some praise from JPMorgan analysts who said this endeavor represents “the highest magnitude among all past ‘buying streaks’ in over a decade.” Here’s the best part: “Retail investors returned as aggressive buyers on Wednesday, breaking the $2 billion threshold in the first half of the day (the 2nd time this year), and ending the day at $3.7 billion inflows (+7z),” JPMorgan noted (Wow, 7 standard deviations above the mean). “We observed their allocation into ETFs/single names are at 30/70% during a typical heavy buying day. Among single names, NVDA and TSLA led the inflows.” JPMorgan also estimated that retail traders’ efforts to snatch the W this year are just bad. “We estimate retail investors’ performance is down by 7% year to date (vs. -3.3% loss in S&P). Most of the drawdown came from March as they increased their holdings in Tech.” Retail traders' performance, year to date. Source: JPMorgan 🤙 The YOLO Moment Buying Tesla shares right now is the ultimate YOLO play. We’re only a week away before Tesla announces what’s shaping up to be the worst delivery figure in years. After a few cuts to delivery targets, considering Europe’s sales took a huge L earlier this year, analysts now predict first-quarter deliveries to land at an average of 418,000 vehicles. Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS , for one, is bigly bearish on the number. It trimmed its target by 50,000 to 375,000 cars. If true, it would mean that Tesla’s business is shrinking by 3% compared with Q1 of 2024 when deliveries hit 387,000 units. For the year, analysts expect sales to land anywhere between 1.9 million and 2.1 million. With looming competition in the global auto space , Tesla will need to work extra hard to meet these numbers. In 2024, Tesla rolled 1.8 million vehicles off the assembly line and into customers’ hands (down 1% from 2023). 👀 Are Retail Traders Buying the Dip? What better place to gauge retail traders’ sentiment than the absolute best trading community out there? Let’s hear it from you — share your thoughts on Tesla! Have you been buying the dipping dip that just keeps carving out new lows? Or you’re a freshly minted Tesla bear after all the havoc and drama around Elon Musk? Off to you!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
52
UPDATE: Level hold perfectly; you sold fear. New ATH is coming!Tesla is ready for a new ATH and potentially 20X even more. It's not only an EV cars company, as many wrongly see it. This is an update of my previous analysis, which received so much hate, but it doesn't change my view. I have added a massive amount at 22O, and it will be an amazing ride until the end of this decade. Here are the facts. They make more revenue in multiple sources than many people see I'm adding a graphical presentation from CernBasher (Tesla specialist) of how the Robotaxi and Optimus can be big. Yes, they might not reach the targets, but even if it's just half. It will be huge. Their Robotaxi business will rapidly outweigh the EV cars business in the near future. Now he has Trump and he will allow him all necessary licenses. and Tesla Optimus will even outperform the Robotaxi. Seems unreal, but the complexity of making a bot is easier than a car. They plan to run robot production faster than anything that has been ramped. The complexity of creating a bot is much less than a car. Also, once they start producing the bots, their factory will become more efficient. One bot can replace three people. The liquidity cycle is coming 🤔I think Optimus and Robotaxi will rapidly exceed their EV car revenue. Elon Musk is predicting over 1000% growth in 5 years. Which would be way above $2900 without stock splits. David Perk
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by David_Perk
11
Tesla - There Is Hope For Bulls!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is just crashing recently: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 After Tesla perfectly retested the previous all time high just a couple of weeks ago, we now witnessed a quite expected rejection of about -50%. However market structure remains still bullish and if we see some bullish confirmation, a substantial move higher will follow soon. Levels to watch: $260, $400 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
50
Tesla on the Path to New Highs: Correction Before a Major high?hello guys. let's have a comprehensive analysis of Tesla __________________________ Technical Analysis Price Structure & Trend: The monthly chart indicates a long-term uptrend within a broad ascending channel. Tesla has recently faced resistance around $300 and is now in a corrective phase. The expected correction may bring the price down to around $220-$250, where it could find strong support before continuing its bullish move. or it is possible to start an upward movement and form an ATH! RSI & Divergence: The RSI indicator previously showed a fake bearish divergence, meaning the price action remains strong despite earlier weakness signals. Potential Higher Levels If Tesla successfully follows the projected movement, a break above $575 could open the door to $700-$750, based on the channel extension and historical breakout patterns. __________________________ Fundamental Analysis Earnings & Growth: Tesla's revenue growth remains strong despite market headwinds. New factory expansions (Giga Texas, Giga Berlin) and production efficiency improvements contribute to long-term profitability. The Cybertruck ramp-up and expansion in AI-driven automation could drive future stock value. EV Market Outlook: Tesla maintains a dominant position, but increasing competition from Chinese EV manufacturers and legacy automakers remains a challenge. Recent price cuts have impacted margins but helped sustain high sales volume. Macroeconomic Factors: Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve could impact growth stocks like Tesla. If rates stabilize or decrease in 2025, Tesla could see renewed investor interest, pushing the stock to new highs. _________________________ Conclusion The mid-term bearish retracement toward $250 aligns with healthy correction levels. If Tesla holds above support and breaks $350, your $575 target is highly probable. A break above $575 could lead to $700+ in the longer term, assuming positive earnings growth and stable macroeconomic conditions.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by melikatrader94
15
Tesla Financials: Q1 2025The market is currently staging a short-term rally - essentially a speculative mean reversion bounce as a reaction to -55% crash from all-time high. This move appears driven largely by retail traders seizing what it perceives as a rare opportunity to accumulate an oversold "large-caps". While retail participation and opportunistic capital are supporting the current bounce, this alone is insufficient to sustain a full recovery. As the price approaches higher levels, particularly near key supply zones, it will likely encounter significant resistance, resulting in reversal. Let's not forget the fact that figures in Tesla’s Q4 '24 financial report initiated bearish sentiment among institutional investors which resulted in market crash. Similarly, the upcoming Q1 earnings report presents a clear downside risk, as the significant events throughout this quarter will inevitably be reflected in the financial figures! Anticipated impact of significant developments on Tesla’s Q1 2025 Financial Statements 🛑 Revenue Decline • U.S. Market Weakness: Lower-than-anticipated vehicle sales in the U.S. directly reduce automotive revenue. • Severe European Slump: A significant 76% sales decline in Germany and weakness elsewhere in Europe will notably reduce international revenues. • Chinese Market Challenges: A substantial 49% sales drop in China will negatively affect one of Tesla’s crucial growth markets. • Cybertruck Weakness and Recalls: Reduced demand and multiple recalls of Cybertruck models further erode revenue growth. • Resale Value Decline and Trade-Ins: Increased vehicle trade-ins indicate lower demand, causing inventory buildup, discounting pressures, and further sales reductions. 🛑 Gross Margin Erosion • Price Reductions and Sales Incentives: Competitive pressures and lower demand likely forced Tesla to reduce vehicle prices and offer incentives, compressing gross margins. • Increased Competition from BYD: BYD’s advanced battery technology (providing 400 km of range in just 5 minutes of charging) pressures Tesla to increase R&D spending or cut prices further, negatively affecting margins. • Production Challenges (Supply Chain and Battery Issues): Ongoing global supply chain disruptions and difficulties scaling battery production significantly increase manufacturing costs, further squeezing gross margins. 🛑 Increased Operating Expenses • Recall Costs and Legal Expenses: Vehicle recalls, along with lawsuits related to product issues such as phantom braking, will significantly increase warranty provisions, legal fees, and related operating expenses. • Protests and Vandalism Costs: Public backlash and vandalism necessitate additional expenditures on security, facility repairs, and public relations initiatives. • Employee Turnover Costs: Departures of key personnel result in increased recruiting, training, onboarding, and severance expenses. 🛑 Net Income and EPS Impact • Analyst Earnings Downgrades: Already-reduced EPS projections by major analysts suggest Tesla will likely report earnings below expectations, reflecting revenue shortfalls and elevated expenses. • $1.4 Billion Financial Discrepancy: If confirmed or unresolved, this discrepancy could lead to substantial asset impairments, restatements, or write-downs, negatively impacting net income and earnings per share (EPS). 🛑 Cash Flow and Liquidity Pressures • Lower Operating Cash Flows: Reduced revenue coupled with rising operating costs (including recalls, lawsuits, security, and PR spending) severely diminish cash generated from business operations. • Increased Capital Expenditures: Additional CapEx is likely required to address battery production bottlenecks and delays in autonomous driving technology development, resulting in elevated investing cash outflows. • Investor Divestment and Stock Volatility: Negative investor sentiment could lead to costly equity financing conditions if Tesla needs to raise capital, adversely affecting financing cash flows and liquidity. 🛑 Balance Sheet Risks • Rising Inventory Levels: Weak sales combined with continued vehicle production may lead to increased inventory levels, reducing cash and potentially requiring markdowns or provisions. • Debt and Liquidity Challenges: Deteriorating credit metrics or covenant breaches could make refinancing existing debt more expensive or complicated, negatively impacting Tesla’s financial stability.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract
6
What Is Tesla’s Fundamental and Technical Analysis Showing?EV maker Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA is perhaps the most controversial stock in U.S financial markets right now. Sales appear to be slowing, while CEO Elon Musk's position as a Trump administration adviser has led political opponents to attack Tesla vehicles, dealerships and even some vehicle owners. TSLA popped 11.9% on Monday (March 24), but has generally been sinking for months. What does technical and fundamental analysis say might happen next? Let's dig in and see what we find: Tesla’s Fundamental Analysis TSLA rose almost 95% in the roughly seven weeks between Donald Trump’s November election victory and the stock’s $488.54 all-time intraday high on Dec. 18. After all, Musk’s close ties to Trump seemed to point to good times ahead for the company. However, the stock’s price has been in decline ever since then, while vandalism of Tesla vehicles by Trump opponents has made owning or one a slightly risky affair. As of this writing, TSLA was down 32.2% year to date and 44% from the stock's Dec. 18 peak. Beyond politics, a lot of this had to do with the reality that demand for electric vehicles might have hit something of a saturation point, at least for now. There’s also been a tremendous increase in competition in recent years for electric-vehicle purchases or leases. Volkswagen OTC:VWAGY has ramped up its EV efforts, while China is absolutely full of homegrown competitors like BYD OTC:BYDDF , Nio NYSE:NIO and XPeng NYSE:XPEV . All in, Tesla’s vehicle sales have slackened not just in America, but also in Europe and China. But to be fair, Ford NYSE:F , General Motors NYSE:GM and Rivian NASDAQ:RIVN have all hit slowdowns in EV sales as well. Still, add it all up and Wall Street is looking TSLA to report Q1 results in May that include $0.47 of adjusted earnings per share on $22.9 billion of revenue. That would represent 4.4% larger earnings and about 7.5% higher revenues when compared to last year’s Q1, where Tesla reported $0.45 of adjusted EPS on $21.3 billion in revenues. However, all 13 sell-side Tesla analysts that I can find have revised their quarterly estimates lower since current quarter began. On the bright side, the automaker’s operating and free cash flows have remained strong for the past three quarters. The firm ended 2024 with some $36.6 billion in cash against a $13.6 billion total debt load. That’s what many would consider a strong balance sheet that could sustain Tesla’s operations for a time if need be. Tesla’s Technical Analysis A look at Tesla’s one-year chart shows that while the stock has been falling since December, it still managed to make a stand technically in recent days: The purple line at right in the above chart shows that TSLA found support twice in March very close to $212.30. That’s the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the stock’s entire April 2024 to December 2024 run. That purple line also shows indicates that Tesla has formed a small “double bottom” pattern of what could be a bullish reversal at the Fibonacci support level, and that the stock has since tried to rally from there. TSLA was also able to recently take back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the green line above). However, the stock appears to have hit resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked above with a red line). That makes the 200-day SMA the stock's likely new pivot point. A retaking of the 200-day SMA would allow for increased target prices. Conversely, a retest and loss of Tesla’s 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could permit a further decline. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line in the above chart’s top) has mostly improved recently and now stands in neutral territory. Similarly, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- is in a less-awful place than it was earlier this year. The histogram of Tesla’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is now above zero. That’s historically a short-term bullish sign. Similarly, the stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line at the bottom) is now above its 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s typically somewhat positive, but both of those lines are still below zero -- which is historically a negative signal. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in TSLA at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by moomoo
1
Tesla's Tipping Point: The $662 Bet That Could Return $12K TSLA bearish play thesis focused on buying 2 contracts of the $190 PUT (May 2, 2025) at $3.31 each. This version scales up all profit/loss values and ROI calculations to reflect a 2-contract position (i.e., 200 shares total). 🧠 TSLA Bearish Earnings Thesis – 2 Contract Play Earnings Date: April 28, 2025 Option Expiration: May 2, 2025 Strategy: Buy 2x TSLA $190 PUTs @ $3.31 Total Cost (Premium Paid): $662 ($3.31 × 100 × 2) Breakeven: $186.69 Thesis: Multiple Converging Catalysts Suggest Sharp Downside Risk Tesla is facing a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and sentiment-driven challenges. These create a highly asymmetric opportunity for short-dated PUT buyers heading into earnings. ⚠️ 1. Earnings Risk – Underperformance Expected Delivery Misses: Q1 delivery numbers fell short of analyst expectations. Slower ramp in key markets like China and Europe due to economic slowdowns. Margin Compression: Aggressive price cuts to maintain volume are eating into margins. Expectations for gross margin contraction YoY are high. Disrupted Guidance: Potential downside revision to full-year forecasts as competition heats up (BYD, Ford, Rivian, etc.). ❝ Street is pricing in perfection. Any earnings or margin disappointment could send shares sharply lower. ❞ 🧨 2. Brand Boycotts & Political Fallout Public Backlash: Tesla faces intensifying boycott pressure in parts of Europe and the U.S. due to Elon Musk's political affiliations and controversial stances. Brand Dilution: Musk’s polarizing presence has damaged Tesla's once-premium EV image. High-income, eco-conscious buyers are switching brands. Retail Sentiment Shift: Reddit, X (formerly Twitter), and retail forums show sharp decline in "diamond hand" loyalty. ❝ Tesla’s brand equity is eroding. Negative sentiment is now a structural overhang. ❞ 🔺 3. Headline Volatility – The “Musk Premium” Now a Liability SEC & DOJ Scrutiny: Multiple ongoing investigations. Any bad headline can crash the stock. X (Twitter) Overhang: Distraction and capital risk tied to Musk’s ownership of X are ongoing market concerns. AI Pivot Uncertainty: Musk’s recent AI pushes have created confusion about Tesla’s core vision, with no clear monetization path. ❝ Musk headlines, once a tailwind, are now a systemic volatility trigger. ❞ 📊 Modeled P&L for 2 Contracts TSLA Price on May 2 % Drop Option Value per Contract Total Value (x2) Net Profit ROI (%) $220 -16.5% $30.00 $6,000 $5,338 806% $210 -20.3% $40.00 $8,000 $7,338 1,108% $200 -24.1% $50.00 $10,000 $9,338 1,410% $190 -27.9% $60.00 $12,000 $11,338 1,712% $186.69 (Breakeven) -29.2% $63.31 $12,662 $12,000 1,812% $263.55 (No drop) 0% $0.00 $0 - $662 -100% 💡 Strategy Recap – 2 Contract Position Metric Value Strike $190 PUT Contracts 2 Premium $3.31 × 100 × 2 = $662 Breakeven $186.69 Max Risk $662 Max Reward $12,662 Reward/Risk Ratio ~19:1 ✅ Final Thesis (2 Contracts) "With $662 risked, a move to $200–$210 can yield ~$8,000. A move to $190 or below offers potential returns of over $11,000, making this a powerful short-term asymmetric play post-earnings. While risky, it’s tightly capped with a clearly defined thesis."
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TheHouseofTrade
MASSIVE $TESLA SHORT: 🚨 NASDAQ:TSLA - MASSIVE SHORT INCOMING? 🚨 Weekly Bearish Divergence Alert 🔻 Tesla is flashing major warning signs on the weekly chart. While price has pushed higher recently, momentum is doing the opposite — bearish divergence on the RSI/MACD is undeniable. 📉 Price Action: TSLA is struggling to reclaim key resistance near $200–$210. The recent rally looks exhausted, with buyers losing strength. 📊 Technical Breakdown: RSI Divergence: Price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high = bearish divergence MACD Histogram Weakening: Bullish momentum is fading fast Volume: Declining on green days, heavier on red = distribution underway ⚠️ Macro Headwinds EV competition is surging Elon selling shares = supply pressure Market rotation into value, not growth 🎯 Trade Setup (Not Financial Advice): Entry: $195–$205 zone Stop: Close above $215 Targets: $180, $160, then $130 for the brave This is a textbook swing short opportunity with a favourable risk/reward ratio. Smart money could be unloading here — don’t get caught long at the top. 📅 Watch for confirmation on this week’s close. If the divergence plays out, this could be a multi-week dump. #TSLA #Short #BearishDivergence #SwingTrade #Options #TeslaCrash #TradeView
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by lukedotcom
2
TESLA formed the new bottom and is going for $600.Tesla / TSLA is on the 2nd straight green 1week candle, crossing above the 1week MA50. With the 1week RSI bouncing on the 2 year Rising Support, the Channel Up has technically formed its new bottom. Both the current and the previous one were formed on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level after a -55% decline. If the bullish wave is also as similar as the bearish waves have been, the price should reach as high as the -0.382 Fib extension. Buy and target the top of the Channel Up at $600. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TheCryptagon
TSLA Q1 FY25 : ich kann buy somewhere from 334 to 579 im expecting a nosedive maybe 334 all in all im just gonna catch some yields on my options well cars being burnt down might discourage people from buying in the long run but this meme stock has many factors like the musk cult that dont realisr he trollin em with all these salutes and haircuts and german party endorsements this counts as public sentiment that will eventually whiplash the brands image so im not too confident it will make a complete impulse ill buy the dip on all tech till nasdaq hits 23.5k
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
4
INVERSE CUP AND HANDLE $TSLA TO $120 The inverted cup and handle, also known as the upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart formation that can occur in both uptrends and downtrends. Unlike the traditional bullish cup and handle pattern, this inverse pattern features two key components: the "cup," which forms an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a brief upward retracement following the cup. Sell NASDAQ:TSLA right now with fact check: brand reputation risk, high competition, loss of EV market leadership, cyber truck/ product recalls, declining sales with lower margin, stock volatility concern, insider selling, investors buy it based on expected future earnings rather than its current profitability. + Head and shoulder/ inverse cup and handle, P/E ratio 79.8-161.23 (overpriced), falling knife, dead cat bounce, the lowest target estimate stands at $120.00, below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, MACD indicator is -19.8, bearish signals. + potential stagflation, tariff war, slow economic growth, inflation, rising public debt, geopolitical tensions, ai bubble, and more
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by sej4974