[GEX] TSLA Breakdown & Options Trade Idea for 39DTELast week, TSLA dropped hard, likely due to political tensions. Let’s not forget — just a month ago, their EVs were showcased at the White House entrance...
In the span of 30 hours, TSLA fell -22% (see red line below), while SPX barely reacted. Why? Because both realized and implied volatility dropped — remember VIX is around 17/18.
This sharp TSLA drop already seemed overdone, which helped fuel the +5% bounce on Friday.Most TSLA options positions are near-term and still show negative sentiment — but further expirations grow increasingly bullish.
🔍 If you use options GEX matrix , you’ll see the bearish hedging flow gradually turns more neutral-to-bullish.
Most cumulative support/resistance zones lie between 250–340, with spot currently just under the chop zone.
🧠 TSLA Trade Idea
It’s been a while since I posted a neutral Iron Condor, but TSLA might be an exception.
Despite last week’s IV spike, call pricing skew still dominates across expirations — as seen in our Options Overlay indicator.This tells me the market doesn’t fear TSLA crashing below 200. So, I’m aiming to capture premium on the July 18th expiry without day trading.
I’m thinking of something simple, well-manageable in either direction.To refine leg placement, I use visual GEX zones.
🐻🔴 Downside:
Strong put support at 250
Gradual support layers up to 280
🐂 🟢 Upside:
Target area: 340–350 for the July 18 expiry.
📅 Closing the Trade:I'll consider closing or adjusting at 21 DTE or when 50% max profit is hit — per TastyTrade’s studies.
🔁 Rolling Plan:IF short delta on one side drops below ~14 and price pulls away, I’ll roll the untested side to collect more credit.
🧑🏫 I’ll likely post trade management live in Discord for educational purposes.
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🦋 Bonus Idea: TSLA Broken Wing Butterfly
If you think TSLA has more downside, a Put Broken Wing Butterfly — like the one shown in my previous YT video — is also a great way to structure this trade using the same GEX levels.
There’s no single way to use Gamma Exposure — it’s the most actionable hedging signal we have. Combine it with your knowledge of strategies and you can trade almost any scenario.
One thing’s for sure — this market moves faster than ever.A single day of internal conflict wiped -22% off TSLA…The next morning, the market already moved on, so as always:
Trade Safe Out There!
