still oversold she's a lady, shows bits of her leg at a time, sometimes just an ankle - be conservative about it.
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TSX trade ideas
TSX trend channel CHAOSA quick follow up to my previous posts about the TSX or the colony of Canada, if you prefer.
Quick observations on a long timeline weekly chart:
We bounced off the top of the channel top for over a year
Major roll over into a recession/depression/stagflation ... take your pick at this point
Commodity super cycle talk seems to be done for now as we can assume the markets are generally manipulated (research gold)
My expectations:
We will at least hit the middle of the channel (middle line) and if things continue to get bad (nukes anyone), look for an overshoot to the downside.
BUT... if the volatility shoots up in the the highs of the year, I can guarantee big ass bear market bounces. So go long on vix highs before you get back to the bear side.
Hope that helps?
Long, For nowSo, I posted an analysis on the S&P 500 with a short bias.
I am short biased on TSX and S&P, but I think my timing is wrong here. I think we see upside on both the S&P and TSX for now (for now meaning within the next couple of days).
We see the TSX is in a descending channel. It did do this double top type pattern; however, looking back historically, these generally lead to bullish pullbacks to the upside. The telling thing for me here is that it is quite oversold on the Z-Score indicator looking at the 4 hour time frame and it has triggered 2 recent buy signals.
The indicator on this time frame tends to be very reliable for both S&P and TSX.
My game plan here is to long a bounce. Likely entering tomorrow and TP indicated with the red lines, essentially center point on that channel. Very short trade with a conservative target because I don't like holding longs too much in this market.
I will be entering via TSX:HXU with TP return of roughly 5% (trading shares not options here; see image below).
Hoping this works out. It will be the first time I have swing traded the TSX. Haha
Overall I am short biased. I have done a time series assessment on the TSX which I will share in a later post. For now, this is my short and to the point game plan.
That is it for now!
Leave your questions, comments and critiques below!
Broadening wedge broken...1000 points away from the pre-covid-crash level, the TSX has printed a broadening wedge and broken through it.
It's now travelling down quickly in a parallel channel.
Outlook not so good. The broadening wedge is a rare and highly predictable indicator of a reversal of trend.
Time to cash out and sit on the sidelines. This is more of an exit point than an entry point...
TSX Composite Index - Elliott Wave Analysis (EDUCATIONAL)Hello Traders!
Welcome to this quick video update on the TSX Composite Index. This video has something for everyone.
Whether you are a seasoned practitioner of the Wave Principle, or brand new to it, I hope you learn something valuable here.
TSX Wyckoff AccumulationIn my humble opinion the TSX has been in an accumulation trading range since Dec 1. We are now coming out of it nicely and holding above. If anyone has ideas to improve this labeling, please let me know. I chose to lable the down move that happened in late Nov as a selling climax instead of an automatic rally because I think it has the character of a selling climax.
tsx compchart on the tsx composite index- last week I was working on this- the monthly if I did do it will be 22-33% over the month end-
hoping this is true- would help out my home exchange....did it with bitcoin or ethereum when I programmed it.
TSX - I'm pretty bearishIf we've reached a market top for the time being (looking back over approximately 10 years) there's nice confluence between fib retracement levels, volume nodes, and some key support/resistance zones I've drawn.
A market pullback to the 0.5 or 0.618 fib level wouldn't surprise me.
Alternatively, if we're just seeing a market pause (accumulation), we could see the market rise some more before a major pullback. In that case, the 0.618 as I've drawn it could move up to where I currently have the 0.5 fib level. A retracement to that area would still make sense, imo.
I don't like seeing price rise while MFI is dropping (Bearish Divergence). It means money is leaving the system and can signal a price reversal. I also don't like current inflation, hawkish fed policy, and excessive money printing in the US. That's a setup for a late-1970s era situation.
This is all purely macroeconomic speculation, of course.
Have fun, and be safe.
Potential Double top.2 peaks at this high level under heavily volatile market conditions. We are still above all the simple moving averages I would start to get worried if we fall below the 50 day SMA. The TSX despite this should outperform other indices in 2022 due to its high amount of commodities stocks because 2022 is bullish for commodities.
TSX hits long term upper bound of channelJust a nice long term channel on the TSX in Canada. Obviously, this channel has been obliterated in USA equity markets (manipulated, post-truth times).
Looks like there is more blood to come on Bay St Hay All Traders,
I'm not a financial advisor, Don't buy or sell bass on what I'm saying... PLEASE DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS POST IS JUST FOR INFO ONLY...
I'm saying there is more blood to come on Bay St. Because of looking at the daily chart and putting on my version of the RSI.
Since the 11th, it has been heading down very fast, and with my version of MACD, it's still looking like it's not slowing down for at least a couple of days.
And using "Linear Regression," my look back is the last 100 days and 10 days, then 10 days is heading lower of the 100 days, and I'm using Linear Regression as support and resistance.
Traditional|TSX|Long and shortLong and short TSX
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
The author recommends the use of anchoring fixed the blue zone, this variation is less risky.
If there is increased volatility in the market and the price is held for more than 2-3 minutes behind the activation zone after the breakdown, then the activation of the idea occurs at the prices behind the activation zone.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
+ ! - zone highlighted by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, in this area there is a possible reversal for a correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
TSX Weakness ahead ?TSX index looks exhausted on all time frames I wouldn't be surprised if we get some form of consolidation for January.
the 200 daily MA is 16380 which would constitute a 6% pull back.
Interesting to note that 28% of the TSX is Financials and if you look at the TTFS the TSX financials index more specifically at the Quarterly window in the top left corner you will notice this past quarter was very positive for financials, as a matter of fact to find a quarter as good as this one ( +15.40%) you have to go all the way back to the first quarter of 2009. I would say its more than rational and healthy to anticipate some consolidation.
Materials and Energy make up the largest remaining share of the index at 14% and 13% respectively.
For Materials it seems to be all dependent on what gold and silver prices do over the month of January, its up to anyone what gold will do in January.
For Energy if you look at the Quarterly timeframe again you will see XEG is up 40% this past quarter which is the best quarter it has ever had going back to 2001. Some consolidation here also seems over due.
There will be lots of profitable trades to make in 2021 as we get further into Q2 and Q3 2021I have no doubt.
TSX Running on the Weekly Chart. Following USA Index to ATHI See this Going to ATH. Once Feb High hits could drop rapidly. Asking Traders " What Negative Catalyst will cause the melt down?" Its all been bullish on this historic run up.
TSX - DOUBLING THE RECTANGLECurrent scenario: If the TSX breaks the 16800 range it will most likely return to 18000.
TSX growing within a rising channel HSH pattern was expectedTSX
Has managed to broke the September month sell off and managed to broke the upper channel trend line and started to growing in the rising channel.
And the TSX umped after the retracement towards 16280.00 which is a .50 Fibonacci retracement level's currently reached the minor resistance level which is 16500.00 we can expect the value will rise continuously in coming days towards 16840.00 which is a major resistance level at this level major head and shoulder pattern may formed and will fall towards the lower channel trend line
Disclaimer!
This is a next possible movement of the market. Its not a financial advice
TSX - Index OutlookTSX - Would be very surprised to see tomorrow's price action drop through 3 significant support indicators. Price is sitting on the Daily 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Also as outlined in the green box a good spot of support. Look for a bounce tomorrow at least holding ground until the 10 day moving average catches up to price.
RSI Static Supports and Resistances on Multi time framesRSI Static Supports and Resistances on Multi time frames.
educational
TSX: High Probability of a Double-Top Sharp ReversalHello Everyone,
Been voraciously busy with the "return to work" life and haven't posted on TV since basically late June but I have an update on Gold to share.
Hopefully everyone has remained healthy and remains financially stable.
--
Much of the analysis here is almost identical to my latest post on the SPX so I will refrain from simply rewriting everything to bore everyone. :-)
The main point here is that the TSX is unlikely to make a new ATH. If it does, it will likely be extremely small but more than likely it will likely fail very close to the prior 2020 ATH and form a larger picture running flat down to re-test the upper 11900s to 12000s by the end of Q1 2021 or earlier.
- zSplit
