TSX trade ideas
Canada's TSXCanada's TSX is an interesting index. The stocks listed in it represent roughly 70% of the market cap of all publicly traded Canadian companies. For perspective, the last data I could find puts the S&P 500 at around 83% in the US.
As with many indices, it formed a nice wedge from the March lows, but there are some special differences here: the island top reversal (circled) that we see on some of the US indices was promptly closed just four trading days later, though the peak of that no-longer island remains the high point of the first counter rally of this bear market.
And furthermore, because the counter rally that has formed after that peak has been so strong, the trend line formed from the February high to the June high, which remains intact on the S&P and Dow and others, has been breached on the TSX. Perhaps that means that the actual initial channel that is formed when we do drop will be less steep than those that form in the US markets I have indicated that potential channel with the red line.
On the long-term chart (below), I see two very interesting things. We may have, like the S&P 500 and Dow, a broadening formation on the TSX. If the markets deteriorate, I would expect for us to aim for that lower channel, but: there is a very strong, multi-decade trend line that is fully intact (orange).
As you can see on the S&P 500, the Great Financial Crisis killed that same trend line:
It will be very interesting to see if that can hold, given that it stands in between where we are at now, and the bottom of that broadening formation.
What about Canada?Although I trade mostly U.S. stocks, Canada is actually my home country and dearest to my heart. Unfortunately, I see the same long term economic consequences in the years ahead, perhaps even worse than America. Canada is a great nation and believe it is still one of the remaining nations of great integrity and honesty. However, we face economic hurdles, because of continued lack of diversification from the oil & gas (8.2%) and financial sectors (7%), the two sectors that are primarily being devastated right now. Most of us remaining Canadians are employed in services, which I cannot see being supported once our primary industries are taken out.
Canada's Elliott pattern seems clearer to me than the American one, likely because there has been much less central bank interference. Nonetheless, I see a reset toward at least 2008 levels, and possibly 1987 levels in the years ahead.
This is a bleak picture, so what can Canadians to do? Well... I would say continue to be Canadians. Love and respect each other. Be kind to our friends and neighbours. Be friendly. Be generous. But also... prepare for a possible 10 year economic set back. Pay off all our loans. Reduce aggressive investments. Keep a cash reserve that can outlast any long term set backs. Learn to grow our own food. Build a strong supportive community. Trust in the strength and goodness of the human heart in the end. Perhaps even learn to short the market during periods of volatility, but be extremely careful. Become the new leaders to diversify our country.
Take care, friends.
Never go long, the gain was very short termThere is a lot of bearish gaps to fill. Despite all last few green days. None of the bearish gaps was tested. The RSI still very week and under 50. In order for me to consider this a long position. I need the following
A- 3 days of RSI above 50 with a bounce
B- The first gap to be filled with sidewalk trading 13650-14250 over 7 days.
C- Never trade an upper lows with fixed highs. 13700 should show me support for at least 2 weeks in order to consider this trend bullish.
D- RSI 48.8 is a magic number for TSX index. No bounce yet but resistance
My position is short, and I will short again at first red gap.
TSX KEEP SELLING- I DO NOT TRUST THE REBONDGood afternoon or Good evening,
My wife received a call from her bank, the bank told her it's good time to buy stocks and the agent asked her to invest now because the stocks are cheap. I do not think it is a good time to buy stocks and if the banks call the customer to tell them it's a good time to purchase stocks that can be dangerous for people they do not have stock knowledge because this crisis is not done yet and probably some companies will go bankrupt.
Ok, what the chart says, The market built a triangle pattern that we notice earlier this month. The market did a rebond but I do not trust it all and keep think the market will be selling again.
If you want to invest, gold is a good idea but you have to do your own search before invest.
the Canadian composite index - will keep selling - 2020-03-12Pattern: Triangle pattern
The triangle pattern is a specific figure formed on the price chart, typically identified when the tops and the bottoms of the price action are moving toward each other like the sides of a triangle. When the upper and the lower level of a triangle interact, traders expect an eventual breakout from the triangle. As such, many breakout traders use triangle formations for identifying breakout entry points.
Analyze ;
Yes, the composite index Canadian is building a triangle pattern, you can notice when you reverse the chart, I like to do it because it gives you a better understanding of the chart sometime. We already reach point fifth of the wave so now idea is the market will sell until they break the triangle but we can see we have a support level before reach the second red line 8093. For now, it's possible for the market to bounce on the first red line that means 14000 and go back down or bounce and change the direction. but there is a high probability the market will go down and reach the second red line.
The recommendation that will be purchasing a put option to protect their investment.
The Bottomless BottomTiming the market with the limited information available to us is nearly impossible, use the strategy that the most successful hedge fund investor in America uses "Ray Dalio"
One of his core principles are to buy in increments when the market is bearish with your cash on hand.
The key is not to buy with all your available cash on hand at ONCE, this is essential because when the market drops even lower you'll be able to take advantage of this additional discount.
Based on the technicals, i believe the market is still trending downward due to the Fibonacci & RSI There will be temporary bounce backs but be CAREFUL these temporary bounce backs are just bear flags and fools gold at best.
Analysis of the fundamentals tell me COVID virus still spreading & has yet to hit the USA as it is only in its early stages.
Good Luck my friends, keep looking forward to the bullish days.
- Shane