Canadian Housing - Macro Looking at the trends forming on housing we are in a situation for continued de-acceleration. Now this is a big claim, but the headwinds from interest rates rising and the closing window of foreign from China are causing issues. We do however have some tailwinds at entry-level housing with a larger-than-normal immigration policy.
I expect weakness in the commuter areas and strength in the downtown condo/towns market and we will likely be neutral detached homes in the metro areas.
TTRE trade ideas
$TTRE - CAD RE - Falling $RY $TD $CM $BNSIt was drawing the same line from the peak in April 2007 to Nov 2008 housing bottom. We could be looking at a similar turn of events, but again, I think it should be accelerated. (The amount of debt as the reason) If this comparison carries similarly, it is 16 months from the peak in Feb 2022 to August 2023. We'll see... I do think Power of Sales are starting to hit the market now as banks move in to try and cut losses as quickly as possible.
I moved the 2023 low to align with a similar set of events as 2008.
Canadain Real Estate $TTREI used the TTRE/CA05 to show the likely outcome of where we are vs where we are going. Likely a "bear" market for Canada in 2023. As much as there can be one. I would prefer to call it a buyers market more so than the usual sellers market Canucks are so used to. The chart clearly shows the two 5-year fixed-rate cycles roughly 2-3 years apart.