BXY trade ideas
Bull Flag Consolidation For British Pound Index Reason To LONGBritish Pound shows an upbeat movement even though in the light of Brexit struggles. I can totally understand why the market is on sideways or consolidation phase. The trigger for British Pound to become bullish will be the favourable deal on Brexit anytime soon.
Key Trading Plan:
i) LONG if the price breaks the resistance of 126.00 with the Take Profit Target of 131.00.
ii) SHORT if the price breaks the trend line of at least below 124.00 to the support (Take Profit Target of 122.00).
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potentiel paires hebdomadaire salut chers amis!
la semaine dernière , fut un peu troublante avec les annonces à n'en point finir et des retours macroéconomiques . J'avais donc jugé bon de m’abstenir de certaines analyses qui n'ont pas trouvés de validations qui me semblait probantes .
Alors cette semaine j'ai quatre paires de devises à surveiller .
1-AUD/USD (vert/orange) qui semble maintenir la tendance de la semaine dernière .
2-EUR/USD (rouge/orange) je serai en neutre sur cette paire en attendant un bon signal ichimoku .
3-CAD/USD (violet/orange) , sur cette paire je me prononcerai plus sur la paire USD/CAD qui me semble intéressante .
4- GBP/USD (bleu/orange) .
rendez-vous sur mes analyses de la semaine .
merci.
BXY (British Pound Index) Cable On the Cable we have it where the pair completed a Alternate Bat pattern but not before it tested the Patterns Harmonic Optimal Price. The price gapped down and slid ever since. This is the First time in a few days where there was a bullish day and i do believe there will be more. both sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line and we might see a switch in the next few weeks and see the Pound get stronger. the Cable is currently under the commercials control as theyre the majority buyers and driving prices lower, but again we do see both sides taking profit (non-commercials) or delievering on contracts (commercials).
So, with all this being said will all this relief going on we might see the pound rise this week again as correction as both sides figure out if theyre going switch sides or remain the same and drive prices lower.
the COT Net Data is as follows:
Commercials- current== 29, 064 // previous== 34, 112
Non-Coms- Current== (15, 998) // Previous== (24, 048)
BXY (British Pound) Here we have the BXY or the Pound Index. Im not gonna pretend i know what curriencies make up the BXY its worth a google if you want to know. But what we have here Is an Alternate bat pattern that tested the HOP and was rejected. I am gussing the pattern will drive down to the 382 retracement of this pattern and then start moving up.
I say this becasue when you look at the COT report the Commercials reduced their positions from 136k orders to 127k orders while the shorts marginally increased theirs about 1,600 orders.
the Non-Commercials, which are the fuel for the trend, reduced their short side by 10k orders bringing their value from 63,000 short to about 52,900 short. this is a siginificant deal. so when you look at the net positions for both which is what most COT traders do then we have the following stats for The Cable...
Commercials Current= 34,112 // previous = 44,403
Non-Commercials Current = (24,048) // Previous= (36,044)
I think this is nothing more than the commercials delievering on contracts and the Non-Commercials taking profit. when you look at the COT index both sides were getting pretty close to the buy/ sell extremes respectively.
So, all in all what i think we will see is price drive down to the 382 of this pattern monday possibly tuesday some minor consolidation tuesday possibly wednesday and some upward movement to finish out the week. So, i suggest any shorts on any pound trades clear them and wait for another chance to sell the pound again.
I say this, becasue on the Commercial short side there were no large orders indicating a drive for a change in direction and you definetly dont see the profiteers loading up on the long side for the Non-Commercials.
For my friends across the pond what do you guys have going on around this time of year, becasue i would like to know for future speculation. why would any big businesses in the UK be hedging against the pound to lock in a rate? like a rainy season, or dry season, major crop planting anything helps... thanks for reading!
GBPUSD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS BLEAK, BEARS TARGET 1.2000GBPUSD is hard hit by pendamic situation as most economic sectors are shut down due to lock down and the Brexit process lost its paced with the current situation. We are not expecting any trade deal with US as Johnson and Trump meeting yet to be done. The pair has completed its little retracement and following the channel downwards.
If we were to turn around a break above the highs from both the Tuesday and Wednesday session, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 50 day EMA , which is painted in red on the chart. Break above that level, of course, would be a very bullish sign but right now it looks as if the British pound is trying to break down lower, as we have had a sudden shot to the downside, a significant bounce, and now we are trying to figure out what to do with the pound itself right now. We are pressing the previous support level from the previous consolidation area, and that of course suggests that there should be significant resistance as we have seen of the last several days. I like the idea of fading rallies at this point, and of course aiming for the lows that we have recently seen near the 1.21 handle.
BXY: The Brink of Bust (Weekly)IMO, the UK will be one of the nations in the G10 to have the hardest time recovering in the Post-COVID Era.
The UK was already struggling before the lock downs as productivity measures have remained relatively flat since 2008. Immigration into the country is high in proportion to the nation's Emigration. That means more people to feed and more costs associated with Government. National debt has skyrocket and Unemployment figures only reach 4% in 2018 before Pre-COVID. Inflation targets are not being met and now the Globe is facing a deflationary period causing the UK to lower it's interest rate that has been in place for years with a new 0.10% on May 7th. 2020.
The chart reflects this risk by a constant falling of GBP value. Hence, it riskier overall to hold The Pound, relatively.
The Weekly shows price action in a range between 126.4 - 122.0, breaking the range on the the week of May 11th and holding true in the week of May 18th.
Price action clearly underneath the Monthly S4 pivot of 124, suggesting breakout to the downside.
Given the risk of holding the Pound due to COVID-19 Recovery and Brexit, not to mention the economic factors listed above, it is possible to see the Pound test the 122.8 - 119.5, which is the close and low the week of September 03, 2019.
Short-term we may see hedging of the Pound to keep it in the range of 124.0, pushing price action back up into range, but considering the risk of holding the Pound + the break and hold..more downside is likely.
The Daily reflects the break and hold. Also, it should be noted that the short-term 13 EMA is also crossing the slower-reacting 48 WMA.
The COT Report hows that 30.5% of all open interest is Short, and increase from May 12 - May 19 vs of 3.3% vs 19.9% Long, representing a 1.0% increase during the same time period.
This should give a Bearish Bias to most Pound pairs to include:
GU, GJ, GN, and GA.
*This is only speculation and does not constitute as financial advice. Neither are all speculators 100%. The rest is up to you!*
