GER40 Short There is a pattern on M15 and M30
This trade is with the H4 trend
triple top on all timeframes with divergence
stop loss of 100 pips
Aim to take half profit at oversold
DEU40 trade ideas
DAX: European Markets and U.S. Elections.The German DAX index (Ticker AT: GER40) has been one of the most impacted by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, closing down 0.1% yesterday, Tuesday, along with the French CAC 40 and the UK's FTSE 100. At today's open, the index continued in negative territory, down -0.13% equivalent to -25.80 points. Currently, the DAX checkpoint stands at around 18,475 points, a level that could hold or even come under further pressure if Trump's re-election materializes, due to fears of protectionist tariff policies that would affect Germany's exporting economy.
Investors maintain a cautious stance, opting to wait for the election results before making important decisions, especially in sectors highly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policies. In addition, the election race has shown a weakened Kamala Harris in the polls, adding more volatility to market forecasts.
Monetary Policy Expectations
Monetary policy is another factor that is influencing movements in the DAX and European markets in general. The US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for this week could culminate in a rate cut of 25 basis points, which would relieve some of the pressure on global markets. The Bank of England is also scheduled to meet this Thursday and is expected to announce a similar rate cut in an effort to contain inflation and stabilize European markets.
European Corporate Results
Amid this uncertainty, quarterly earnings from European companies have brought slight relief to the market. Approximately 50% of STOXX 600 companies have already reported third quarter results, and many reports exceeded the market's low expectations. Among the highlights:
• Hugo Boss (Ticker AT: BOSS.G): Rallied 0.7% after slightly beating earnings expectations and confirming its annual outlook, despite declines in the Asia-Pacific region.
• AB Foods (Ticker AT: ABF.UK): Shares rose 2.8% after the Primark owner reported solid annual earnings growth, driven by higher revenues in its food and retail businesses.
• ASOS (LON:ASOS): Dropped 2% after reporting significant annual losses, although its CEO, Jose Antonio Ramos Calamonte, expressed optimism about the company's recovery.
Oil Prices
Oil prices, which affect key DAX sectors such as industrials and chemicals, stabilized after a sharp rally on Monday. Brent (Ticker AT: BRENT) reached USD 75.23 per barrel and WTI (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) USD 71.63, boosted by OPEC+'s decision to delay again a 180,000 barrel per day production increase in the face of weak global demand. This is the second extension of the 2.2 million barrels per day cut, an adjustment that producing countries consider necessary to maintain oil market stability. Today, oil prices have started the European trading day upwards, +0.27% for WTI and 0.25% for Brent respectively. It is very likely that these prices will extend to 72.23 USD for WTI and 76.01 USD for BRENT.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Watch out! If CAC dips below the trend line, so do the othersWarren Buffett Is selling stocks at a record pace and avoiding his favorite stock for the first time since 2018 (source: Yahoo Finance November 4, 2024)
Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs are sold out for the next 12 months — chipmaker to gain market share in 2025 (source: toms hardware October 11, 2024). THE GOOD NEWS IS NVDA is incredible; the bad news is that it is all priced in.
Weak jobs data can’t stop 10-year yield’s climb as stock-market rally lost steam (source: Marketwatch Nov. 1, 2024)
GER40 Trade LogTrade Setup (29/10/2024) - GER40 Buy in 30-Minute FVG
1. Setup: Despite recent volatility, the 30-minute FVG presents a buy opportunity within a defined support zone.
2. Entry Strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Stop-Loss: Below the 30-minute FVG, respecting recent price lows to limit downside risk.
- Entry Confirmation: Look for signs of stabilization or a bullish reversal within the FVG zone before entering.
3. Trade Management:
- Consider potential re-entries within the FVG if initial entry is triggered and price action aligns with the broader trend.
- Be cautious of any new high-impact data affecting European indices, as GER40 remains sensitive to market sentiment shifts.
4. Note: With recent losses, maintaining discipline on risk management here is key. Avoid over-leveraging, and wait for clear bullish signs in the FVG before committing further.
GER30 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 19,330.78, which is a pullback resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 19,036.94, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be at 19,661.66, a multi-swing high resistance level.
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GER40 (German DAX) Potential Bullish Reversal and Key Levels AnaAnalysis Summary
Lower High (LH) and Strong High: The recent lower high (LH) formed near 19,650 shows where sellers pushed back strongly. This area is reinforced by a broader supply zone, indicating significant resistance if the price rises to test this level again.
Change of Character (CHoCH): Several CHoCH levels highlight shifts in short-term momentum, suggesting mixed sentiment. The recent CHoCH near 19,150 hints at the potential for a reversal to the upside, especially if buying pressure continues to build.
Support and Demand Zones: A large demand zone, marked in blue around 18,875 to 19,000, represents a strong support area. This zone may attract buyers if the price retraces downward, potentially providing a foundation for a bullish move.
Weak Low: The weak low at 19,000 indicates a vulnerable support level. If this level is breached, it could open the path to a deeper bearish move; however, if defended, it could act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Reversal: If the price continues to hold above or near the 19,000 demand zone, a bullish move targeting the resistance area around 19,250 to 19,300 (first resistance) and potentially the strong high near 19,650 (second resistance) is possible.
Downward Retracement: A short-term pullback into the demand zone (18,875–19,000) could attract additional buyers, especially if the price action shows signs of support. If the price sustains above this zone, it may confirm a reversal, leading to upward momentum.
Conclusion
GER40 shows potential for a bullish reversal if the demand zone around 19,000 is defended. Traders should monitor reactions around this zone, as a strong bounce could lead to higher levels, while a breakdown might lead to a further decline. Watch for bullish signals near the support areas for entry opportunities.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40
Germany 40 has shifted to a corrective phase but remains in a bullish trend. The price is now 19,223, having bounced off the 2SD channel it is still below the VWAP (20) of 19,430. Support is at 19,112, with resistance at 19,748. The RSI stands at 47, reflecting a more cautious sentiment within the bullish trend.
UK 100
The UK 100 just about remains neutral, but the break below the previous fractal lows around 8200 could be the start of a new downtrend. The price is currently 8,217, just below the VWAP (20) of 8,257. Support is located at 8,101, while resistance is at 8,413. The RSI is 46, indicating balanced momentum.
Wall Street
Wall Street is in a bullish but corrective phase, still above the VWAP bands. The current price is 42,021, below the VWAP (20) of 42,584. Support is at 41,596, and resistance is at 43,572. The RSI is 44, indicating waning momentum within the broader bullish trend.
Brent Crude
Brent Crude remains neutral, staying in a consolidation phase with limited directional bias. The price is 7,478, just above the VWAP (20) of 7,392. Support is located at 7,097, with resistance at 7,687. The RSI is 52, indicating slightly positive but generally balanced momentum.
Gold
Gold remains bullish in an impulsive phase despite a small pullback. The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern is one to watch for a trend reversal. The current price is 2,740, above the VWAP (20) of 2,719. Support is found at 2,644, and resistance is at 2,795. The RSI is 59, reflecting strong bullish momentum without overbought conditions.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has moved to a corrective phase but remains in a bearish trend. The price is 1.0898, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 1.0848 after gapping back above a bearish engulfing candlestick. Support is at 1.0765, with resistance at 1.0932. The RSI is 51, suggesting a pause in downward momentum.
G BP/USD
GBP/USD continues in a neutral consolidation phase with a slight bearish bias. The current price is 1.2960, close to the VWAP (20) of 1.2993. Support is at 1.2891, and resistance stands at 1.3094. The RSI is 43, showing mild downside pressure within the neutral trend.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY remains bullish in an impulsive phase. The current price is 151.88, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 151.28. Support is at 148.25, and resistance stands at 154.28. The RSI is 57, signalling ongoing bullish momentum within overbought conditions.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?GER40 is rising towards the resistance which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 19,326.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 19,557.03
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 19,073.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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GER40 Trade LogTrade Setup (31/10/2024) - GER40 Long in 4H FVG
1. Setup: Enter long within the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), identifying this zone as a potential support area for a bullish move.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal signals or strong support within the 4H FVG, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or rejection wick.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss just below the lower boundary of the 4H FVG to manage downside risk.
- Set take-profit at twice the distance of the stop-loss to maintain a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Monitor European market sentiment and any upcoming economic news that could impact GER40.
- Wait for clear bullish signs within the FVG to ensure a higher probability of a successful trade.
This approach focuses on capitalizing on potential bullish momentum if price finds support in the 4H FVG.
DAX to attract sellers at market price?GER40 - Intraday
4 negative daily performances in succession.
Short term bias has turned negative.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 19161.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
20 4hour EMA is at 19235.
We look to Sell at 19215 (stop at 19315)
Our profit targets will be 18965 and 18905
Resistance: 19100 / 19200 / 19300
Support: 19003 / 18900 / 18800
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2024-10-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - October is behind us and markets closed at the monthly lows. Clear sell signal going into November, since this is an amazing bear breakout. Markets are now in search for a intermediate bottom to form a proper channel. Most markets are also at bigger support and we can expect some more sideways to up movement before we get another impulse. That does not mean we can’t print another huge down day on Friday and have the pullback next week.
dax xetra
comment: Monthly chart shows a rejection at the top of multiple patterns and odds favor more downside over the next 1-2 months to have something of a pullback in this bubble. Weekly 20ema is around 18800, so only 200 points lower, which is reasonable to hit over the next days but we can’t expect that ema to be broken too easily. My rough target for November is 18000-18500. Daily chart shows huge bear gap bars and market needs some sideways to up movement soon.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend is over.
key levels: 18900 - 19400
bull case: Bulls running for the exits and want to take profits before they are gone. 19000 is a decent target for market to take a breather and move sideways to up. Targets for bulls are gap close to 19270, which is also the daily 20ema. 19400 is far but could happend. I can’t imagine anything above that for now. 18900 has to hold, otherwise we see a flush down to ~18340, which is the 50% pullback.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears are in full control of the market after 3 huge selling days. Volume is increasing and xetra has not touched the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. Bears can view this leg down as w1, which already had 3 nested legs down (1 per last 3 days). Some pullback and sideways movement is expected. If bears can keep this below 19300, that would show strength and w3 would accelerate down in that case, since bulls had no better relief. Next target is 18900 and below that is 18800 (weekly 20ema), below that is nothing until 18400.
Invalidation is above 19300.
short term: Bearish but more cautious and only selling pullbacks again. 18900/19000 should be bigger support. Expecting two more legs down in November, rough target is 18000.
medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: ~19170 was rejected many times and bears had enough chances to get on the short train. 19000 was obvious support and one should have covered there.
DAX TRADING IDEAHi again traders!
Here to bring you'all this idea about a bullish movement on DAX. Not a long term buy but a fast trade. The idea is to close it today before the market closes.
Why I think so?
The index has been on a three-day consecutive bearish movement. Dropping 500. After a manipulation, price seems to be holding on 5 minutes - 15 minutes frames, showing us a clear accumulation zone leaded by EMA9 and EMA50 ( 5 mins).
My potential profit is 104 points above the marked entry. Althought I think price is pumping on a few hours, could be possible to see a quick retracement before that.
DAX Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX was trading in an
Uptrend along the rising
Support but now we are
Seeing a bearish breakout
So we are locally bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
GER40 Trade Log Trade Setup (30/10/2024) - GER40 Long on Daily / 4H FVG
1. Setup: Entering a long position within the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily and 4-hour timeframes, as this zone serves as a key demand area.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Confirmation: Look for signs of bullish support or reversal patterns within the FVG zone, such as a bullish engulfing candle or strong rejection wick on the 4H or daily chart.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss just below the FVG to manage downside risk.
- Take-profit set at twice the stop-loss distance, aligned with nearby resistance or supply levels for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Monitor macroeconomic news and European market sentiment that could impact GER40.
- Wait for solid bullish signs within the FVG to ensure higher probability for upside momentum.
This setup leverages the multi-timeframe FVG as a demand zone, aiming for a high-probability long entry if price shows support within this area.
GER40 Trade LogTrade Setup (30/10/2024) - GER40 Short on 1H FVG
1. Market context: Anticipating a downward move in GER40 driven by poor earnings reports, which could increase bearish momentum.
2. Setup: Short position within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) acting as a supply zone.
3. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Entry confirmation: Wait for price to retrace into the 1H FVG and show signs of rejection (e.g., bearish engulfing candle or other reversal pattern) before entering short.
4. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss above the FVG to protect against a reversal.
- Set take-profit at twice the distance of the stop-loss for a 1:2 RRR.
5. Additional considerations:
- Be mindful of further earnings announcements that could influence volatility.
- Monitor European market sentiment, as additional poor earnings could support the short bias.
This setup leverages the 1H FVG as an entry zone, with bad earnings acting as a catalyst for the anticipated move downward.
