DOLLAR 4H DOLLAR 4H , will look for the strength for correction of wave 4
wherever DOLLAR gets at Fibonacci levels will look for weakens of dollar from WAVE 4 to WAVE 5
DXY trade ideas
DXY View!!The dollar index
DXY
Friday fell by -0.16% and posted a 14-month low. The dollar moved lower Friday after weaker-than-expected US personal income and spending reports knocked T-note yields lower, a bearish factor for the dollar. Also, Friday’s benign US Aug core PCE deflator report boosted the chances for additional Fed interest rate cuts, which was negative for the dollar. The dollar recovered from its worst levels after the University of Michigan US Sep consumer sentiment index was revised up to a 5-month high.
analysis DXYGiven the break of the price level at 100.618, it is predicted that the price may potentially reach the next lower support level. However, within the range of this next support, there is also a price order block. Therefore, according to the chart, the critical price level where liquidity can be gathered and a decisive move towards expansionary monetary policy by the central bank can be confirmed is at 99.369.
DXY TRADE SETUPIndex; DXY
✔ Classic Bearish formation
DXY is holding continuous down Trend so after market retracement I can take sell entry . If your analysis matches it take a trade otherwise skip the trade.
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DXY Is Bearish! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 100.412.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 99.698 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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We are going to 72The global trend lines lead us to the year of the foundation of the petrodollar in 1974.
We are moving to a new level of support, which I think will be achieved through another recession cycle.
The rate will continue to decline at an extreme pace, and the pressure of the M2 money supply will inevitably create strong pressure on the DXY
First, high-risk assets such as altcoins will grow, then we will see the collapse of the S&P500 from 6800 to 3400. At this point (2026), we can see DXY in the area of 72.
Dollar Index Weekly Timeframe Analysis by Mallicast Team:Given the break of the price level at 100.618, it is predicted that the price may potentially reach the next lower support level. However, within the range of this next support, there is also a price order block. Therefore, according to the chart, the critical price level where liquidity can be gathered and a decisive move towards expansionary monetary policy by the central bank can be confirmed is at 99.369.
Could this be the fall of the Dollar???The dollar is about to break the last significant structure on the monthly time frame. We have seen the dollar dropping over the last few months after its reaction from the last swing high.
Market structure shows price creating lower lows and lower highs which are confirmed by endless BOS. We can see a clear 11min OB has been left from the last low that price created once it tapped into the 18h demand which may allow us a buying opportunity to buy the dollar up to the 1h supply where we will continue to see it fall to it's untimely demise.
previous price action from this 18H however, didn't create much movement despite the fact it also took ASL liquidity possibly suggesting buying power in the market has no strength what so ever. We have to also consider the possibility price may not even be able to push back up but rather fall targeting the Asian lows as this would be considered a magnet for price movement.
Usd still not given clear direction on higher TimeframeHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Right at the low of 2023 Jan,want to break but not breaking the last FOMC lows...only to play the whips so far...not clear direction..hopefully NFP give some clear indication of either further downside OR reversal.
What you all think?
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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In the past a down trend on the Dollar translated in a BTC spikeIf we see what BTC did win the past once the dollar started a down trend. I would not be surprised seeing the same this time.
Wait wait wait is the game we playing nowDXY H4 chart
Price is in a LTF consolidation phase and it is located in between the broken LTF swing low at 100.538. This consolidation is signalling to us that buyers entering the market as we closed the trading week rejecting the lows. We will wait for price to break to either the upside or downside and take the required action then but for now we WAIT!!!
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Trend Continues
Dollar Index violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Taking into consideration that the market is trading in a long term bearish trend,
chances are high that a bearish rally will continue.
Next support - 100.00
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Study of DXY, Gold, and Fed Fund Rates using 200MA indicatorBlack line: DXY (U.S. dollar index)
Green line: DXY 200 week moving average
Yellow line: GC (Gold futures)
Blue line: DFF (U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate)
Since 1971 when U.S. dollar went off the gold standard, there have been 6 instances when the DXY crossed below its 200 week moving average while it was rising. At closing on 27 September 2024 was the 7th instance of this DXY crossing.
Of interest:
Performance of gold when DXY crosses below, until DXY reaches a local minimum. Results are highlighted in purple boxes.
Of the 7 instances, interest rates were rising in 4, flat in 1, falling in 1, and presumed to be falling in the current scenario. The only rising rate period was 1985-92, when gold had a very marginal 4% gain. This was notably on the backside of the 1970's high inflation period. Technically, gold showed gains in all but 1 of these historical periods, with 1994-95 showing a 2% loss.
Conclusions:
1) DXY trend reversal downward is not always, or often, associated with a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle nor is it strongly correlated with gold price gains.
2) The start of a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle is not predictive of gold price gains.
Still Dollar index consolidating at narrow range of 100.5 to 102Still Dollar index consolidating at narrow range of 100.5 to 102. It may break trendline or support
Rising Global Liquidity: Deflationary Dollar & Rallying EquitiesWhile it's uncommon for the dollar ( TVC:DXY ) and equities (S&P 500) to rise simultaneously, historical instances illustrate that it can occur under specific economic conditions.
I think those conditions may be upon us!
Historical Examples:
1995:
DXY Movement: Strengthening
S&P 500 Movement: Rising
Context: Strong economic growth and corporate earnings propelled equities higher.
2001-2002:
DXY Movement: Strengthening
S&P 500 Movement: Rising
Context: Economic recovery following the tech bubble burst.
2011:
DXY Movement: Strengthening
S&P 500 Movement: Rising
Context: Safe-haven buying of the dollar amid European debt concerns, while stocks benefited from robust corporate earnings.
March 2020:
DXY Movement: Strengthening
S&P 500 Movement: Rising (post-COVID)
Context: Initial flight to safety due to uncertainty, followed by stimulus-driven stock market recovery.
Mid-Late 2025 - Crescendo:
DXY Movement: Potential strength driven by deflationary AI Pressure cheapening productivity & labor cycles
S&P 500 Movement: Rising markets as all assets rally as a result of increased liquidity from stimulus
Context: it takes a few months for stimulus to reach assets- the next few *years* might have stimulus coming. Inflate the debt away while the dollar rises?
These historical instances suggest that a strengthening dollar *can* coexist with rising equities, particularly in environments characterized by global liquidity increases.
Given the chart, we have a convergence of two long term trend lines, first in the ascending channel on the ‘short term’ (1yr candles, in top photo ascending channel).
Then for the longer term ‘cup’ trend going back decades (ref bottom RSI momentum dating back to 1980s), *that* might show that we truly are on the cusp of incredible amounts of stimulus.
What do you think? Is it possible that the dollar goes higher while we receive trillions in stimulus? Is this the fuel for the ‘everything rally’?
Possible Trend of the Dollar Index in 2023In this idea, the trend of the dollar index in 2023 is shown.
In 2022, due to the fall of the stock index of most industrialized countries, we saw the growth of the dollar index, and the final resistance line according to the Fibonacci tool set at the Fibonacci level of 1.41 and the index at 114.
but after that, the dollar index began to fall, and this fall has three hard resistance levels ahead, and the hardest level is the range between Fibonacci 0.38-0.5.
Good luck.
SEYED
Perfect Price ActionI love Fridays. Fridays are potentially weekly moves if not yet fulfilled.
This was a predicted sell, from
4hrOB
1hrLV
to
External range Liq.
Traded 2 pairs connected with dollar for London, made a killing.
Dollar index sellAs dollar index was bearish all the week and in my view it will remain bearish for the next week as Dxy is moving in a falling wedge in which it has completed its 4 waves over H4 to H1 TF and going to complete its last wave 🌊 E if this pattern is not a failed pattern then DXY will remian Bearish all the next week also we our team has observed that Dollar is Bearish on All timeframes from Monthly to weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 so we will be bearish for the next week as Geopolitics is concerned we can predict a downward move in dollar index
Hope for the good 👍😊
DXY on the verge of going down furtherNixon did two favors or beter say, ywo curses to US, one of em was to take the USD off the Gold standard and second was to open the doors to the world for Chinese which i still see as a threat and very dangerous not only for US economy but for all over the world
my ultimate target for now is 95.50 after that, maybe a bounce and further decline
DXY STRUCTUREThe weekend is here, as we wait for the market to open next week, DXY has a weak low to take out before it can move downwards to the 1D OB and then bullish momentum will start coming in, do well to save this and use it as a template for the coming week keep your mind flexible so you can be able to adapt to any new price movement. together we can win.
DXY: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 100.625
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
End of the week analysis27th September
DXY: Price could trade higher to retest 100.90, if bearish trendline held, could trade back down to 100.55
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6905 SL 15 TP 50
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3290 SL 25 TP 75 (if support holds) Buy 1.3345 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.1090 SL 25 TP 80
USDJPY: Could range 143 to 144.50, Buy 145 SL 50 TP 200
USDCHF: Nothing for now
USDCAD: Sell 1.3480 SL 25 TP 60
Gold: Could retrace down to 2640-2652 range, look for reaction there.
