DXY LONG FROM SUPPORT|
✅DXY fell down sharply
But a strong support level was hit at 100.509
Thus as a rebound is already happening
A move up towards the target at 100.900 shall follow
LONG🚀
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DXY trade ideas
USDX,DXYUSDX price is near the important support zone 100.68 - 99.89. If the price cannot break through the 99.89 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
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Could price bounce from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 100.54
1st Support: 100.21
1st Resistance: 101.25
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US Dollar Into Support Ahead of FedThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above key support into the weekly open at 100.61/76- a region defined by the December low and the 2024 low-day close (LDC). Note that the lower parallel of the pitchfork and the objective September opening-range also converge on this threshold and further highlight its technical significance- looking for a reaction off this mark into FOMC with the immediate focus on a breakout of the monthly range.
A break / close below this pivot zone threatens another accelerated bout of losses toward the next major technical consideration at the 2019 high / 2023 low-day close (LDC) at 99.66/95 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 advance at 98.97.
Monthly-open resistance stands at 101.73 backed by the January LDC at 102.20- rallies should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading for a break lower. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to 102.80/95. Keep in mind that we get the release of the updated interest rate dot-plot and economic projections from the Fed on Wednesday- expect increased volatility here. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance.
Michael Boutros
@MBForex
DXY TO MOONCAPITALCOM:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY DOLLAR make high liquidity when it falls down that will give us two options:
first it will raise to FVG 1H and then it will go down to collect liquidity from PWL and then go up.
second it will go down to collect PWL and then go to moon.
Market News Report - 15 September 2024This past week, the Japanese yen was the strongest currency against all the major forex markets. Meanwhile, its counterparts performed mildly.
How long will the yen be dominant? What about the other currencies? This week consists of several high-impact, interest rate-related events that will surely be a spectacle.
Let's discuss each major forex currency's short and long-term outlooks in our latest report.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR (short-term interest rate) markets expect at least four full rate cuts before the end of this year. They also suggest a 50% chance (up from 36% last week) of a 50 bps (basis points) cut at this week's meeting. So, diarise this high-impact news event.
However, any sense of the Fed holding back on a cut would send the dollar sharply higher.
The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals. It recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart and is still near this level.
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends. However, the meeting on Thursday may strengthen the USD if the Fed doesn't proceed with a 50 bps cut. Still, data on weakened jobs is another bearish driver for the dollar.
Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the interest rate as we've predicted for several weeks. However, STIR markets have shifted towards a hawkish direction for future ECB meetings. We should also note that the central bank remains 'data-dependent' and not committed to the potential for cuts going forward.
We've seen some bearishness on the euro chart. It is some distance from the major resistance at 1.127575, and it's hard to tell where it may attempt to reach this area soon. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. Furthermore, the central bank is overly concerned about services inflation, reducing the chance of a rate cut next month. Also, STIR markets anticipate a 67% chance of a hold during this meeting.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the beginning of last month. However, the BoE remains data-dependent and has no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing two additional cuts for the remainder of 2024.
The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP.
Watch out for the new interest rate (or 'Official Bank Rate') this Thursday.
As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. It recently breached the major resistance at 1.31424. So, the next area of interest is near by at 1.32666.
On the other hand, the nearest key support is far below at 1.26156.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
While the interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound, the BoE has yet to signal a future path in this regard.
STIR markets predict a rate hold next for the Thursday meeting (79% chance vs. 74% chance last week). Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision in July to hike the interest rate (15 bps hike vs the 10 bps expected).
STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting this Friday but a hike at the start of next year. So, the bullish bias is intact, more so with the rate-cutting mood of other major centrals like the Fed, ECB, and BoE.
The USD/JPY market perfectly reflects the fundamental outlook of the dollar and yen. Very few would have predicted the current picture of this chart. This pair is very close to touching the major support area at 140.252.
Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
In addition to the recent rate hike (and the potential for a hold at the next meeting), lower US Treasury yields are other bullish catalysts for the yen.
Also, the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside for many weeks.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation.
Moreover, Governor Bullock expressed last week that the central bank must see 'results' on the latter before lowering rates. Inflation is also a problem for the RBA, indicating that rate cuts would be premature.
Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we consider economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. As a pro-cyclical currency, China's economic woes have been negative for the Aussie (something else to keep in mind).
The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having reached a recent resistance level (0.67986). While dipping last week, the next target at 0.68711 isn't so far away.
Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The RBA remains hawkish as per the recent meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical. So, it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
New Zealand's central bank dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25% last month.
Lower-revised cash rate projections and a variety of core inflation measures also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. However, it is the usual data-dependency for NZD that could drive the currency either direction.
The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220 - the next target is 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area that it is unlikely to test soon.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for the NZD. As with other currencies, traders should be data-dependent, especially around inflation and wages.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Canadian dollar is fresh off an interest rate cut (from 4.50% to 4.25%). Furthermore, STIR markets indicate a 91% chance of another cut next month and two full rate cuts before the end of 2024.
Rising unemployment and weak economic growth are key drivers of the Bank of Canada's dovish stance. Let's not forget the ongoing mortgage stress, a long-running bearish theme for CAD.
Among other factors, Canada's ongoing mortgage stress has forced its central bank to be dovish.
Despite the above, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. In the recent meeting, they also wished for economic growth.
The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it.
However, expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets forecast a 25 bps rate cut later this month and in December this year. Also, despite the positive trend of falling inflation, the Swiss National Bank is pressured to weaken the Swiss franc to facilitate more exports.
However, the CHF can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis.
USD/CHF has trended down nicely for several weeks, now looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way.
Conclusion
The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained unchanged from our previous report. Getting three interest rate decision events a day after another in a week happens once in a blue moon. Thus, we should expect higher-than-average volatility.
Otherwise, keep our fundamental outlooks in mind as you tackle this - hope for the best and prepare for the worst!
DXY "Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear,
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DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 100.905
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision!This Wednesday is the next Interest Rate decision by the Federal Reserve. This time last September the rate got raised to 5.5% & since then rates have not been lowered at all. Markets have been pricing in a rate cut down to 5.25% this week, for the first time in the past 1 year. If the Federal Reserve don't lower rates as expected, expect some serious market volatility!
What do you think the Fed will do? Cut rates or hold steady?
Does it all depend on Fed's rate decision? DXY is potentially creating a triple bottom with 4HR bullish divergence. Currently around 100.3, if support is lost here, the next support zone is around 99 - 99.6. Volatility can be expected this week due to the Fed's rate decision.
bullishLong TP 104
It will fluctuate in the next two days, then begin to accumulate, which will be accompanied by the release of data on Wednesday, then it will rise again to levels of 104-105.
US Dollar at key support ahead of the FOMC this weekIntraday Update: US Dollar index is at the key 100.60 level, this is channel support and near recent lows since late August. Considering this is the FOMC week, USD bears should be careful down here ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Clear & Simple DXY Trading Strategy | Pre-Fed This WeekImmediate Dollar weakness has hit the DXY back to local lows.
This shows weakness and represents overall market sentiment.
Making the right call, therefore, is very important.
DeGRAM | DXY rebound from the channel boundaryDXY is moving in an ascending channel under the trend lines.
The lower boundary of the channel has already become a reversal point three times, and most of the time the chart has been in the upper part of the channel, which indicates an uptrend.
The price has not yet reached the support level.
We expect a rebound with a possible reaching of the support level before it starts.
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The DXY is Following Forecast - Sell-Off Ahead?It has been clear for quite some time that the DXY is going to decline further, and it seems that the bears have finally taken the lead. The next structural support level is to be found around $99, but fibonacci support for wave iii is located between $97.40 and $95.85.
Levels discussed on Livestream 16th September 16th September
DXY: Look to trade slightly lower to 100.55 support, should stay below 101 to maintain bearish
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6150 SL 15 TP 75 (Hesitation at 0.6110)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.67 SL 30 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.32 SL 20 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1145 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: Sell 139 SL 50 TP 100
USDCHF: Sell 0.8430 SL 40 TP 80 (Hesitation at 0.84)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 20 TP 70
Gold: Needs to stay above 2570 to climb and test 2600 ATH round number resistance level
The Dollar Index Accelerates Its Decline!The dollar index has been losing strength recently, falling below the 100.50 level. Following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates, expectations for a rate cut by the Fed have also increased. According to money market pricing, there is a 51% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and a 49% probability of a 50 basis point cut. This has pushed the dollar index below the 100.50 level.
Technically, if the index falls below the 100.45 level, the 100.30 and 100.00 levels can be considered support. However, if it recovers and moves above the 100.45 level, resistance can be observed at the 100.70 and 100.90 levels.
DXY FACES FEAR AHEAD OF FED RATE CUTFed reserve committee set to cut interest rate lower after the pandemic. We may experience a fade in trend without the US facing recession.
Technically, we may experience some weakness in USD ahead of the forthcoming US election
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 100.844.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 101.825 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 15th—> Sept 20th)Hello Investors! 🌟 This week, US equity markets rebounded sharply as investors scooped up shares ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Let's break down the key events that shaped this rally-filled week in the markets. 📈
**Market Overview:**
Following last week's heavy selling, investors took advantage of lower prices to buy into the market ahead of the Fed's September policy decision. The US 10-year yield traded 5 basis points above the 2-year, continuing the yield curve's steepening and normalization. Tuesday's debate between former President Trump and VP Harris made headlines, though it is expected to have minimal impact on the upcoming election. Investor sentiment took a midweek hit after comments from major US banks at investor conferences raised concerns, while the Fed’s Barr introduced a watered-down proposal on Basel capital requirements for banks. Additionally, soft economic data from China fueled speculation about potential stimulus measures from the PBOC. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices dipped below $70/barrel for the first time since December 2021, with ongoing demand concerns largely emanating from China.
The US equity markets initially sold off after the release of August’s CPI report, which showed the owners-equivalent rent index accelerating for the second consecutive month, despite economists' and business leaders' belief that housing costs are moderating. The Yen strengthened further as BOJ officials continued to signal policy adjustments. Gold futures reached new highs, surpassing $2600 for the first time in non-inflation-adjusted terms. The ECB cut rates by 25 bps, though President Lagarde’s tone suggested the ECB may wait for further data and for the Fed to begin easing before cutting rates again.
Later in the week, stocks rallied on renewed interest in the AI trade, fueled by bullish comments from Nvidia and Oracle. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, confirmed that the Blackwell chip has entered full production and will ship in Q4. Oracle’s CEO, Larry Ellison, delivered strong results and optimistic long-term growth forecasts during their earnings call, sparking enthusiasm for the tech sector. Apple also launched its latest iPhones, integrating ChatGPT into its new ‘Apple Intelligence’ initiative.
In labor news, unions continued to flex their muscles, with Boeing's largest union rejecting a labor deal and announcing a strike that could slow production and impact the company’s recovery. AT&T's west coast operations and the NY Times tech guild also threatened strike action, while Amazon responded to unionization pressures by announcing a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B investment in driver training and pay hikes.
By the end of the week, the S&P 500 climbed back above 5,600, trading at more than 20x next year’s expected earnings, an area that has been a point of resistance since the index's all-time highs in July. Former Fed officials and market watchers continued to push for a 50 bps rate cut, with futures markets shifting in that direction. For the week, the S&P gained 4%, the DJIA rose 2.6%, and the Nasdaq surged nearly 6%.
**Stock Market Performance:**
- 📈 S&P 500: Up by 4%
- 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 2.6%
- 📈 Nasdaq: Up by 6%
**Economic Indicators:**
- **US 10-Year Yield:** Traded 5 bps above the 2-year yield amid continued curve steepening.
- **August CPI Report:** Showed the owners-equivalent rent index accelerating, raising concerns despite expectations of housing cost moderation.
- **Brent Crude:** Dipped below $70/barrel for the first time since December 2021 due to demand concerns from China.
- **ECB Rate Cut:** The ECB cut rates by 25 bps, with a cautious outlook for further cuts.
- **Gold Prices:** Hit non-inflation-adjusted highs above $2600.
**Corporate News:**
- **Nvidia:** CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that Nvidia’s Blackwell chip is in full production and will ship in Q4, driving enthusiasm in the AI trade.
- **Oracle:** Delivered strong earnings and bullish long-term growth forecasts, with CEO Larry Ellison predicting robust growth through 2029.
- **Apple:** Launched its latest iPhone series, incorporating ChatGPT into its new ‘Apple Intelligence’ platform.
- **Boeing:** Faced setbacks after its largest union rejected a labor deal, announcing a strike that could jeopardize production and the company’s recovery.
- **Amazon:** Responded to unionization pressures by announcing a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B investment in driver training and pay increases.
- **AT&T & NY Times Tech Guild:** Both faced potential strike actions, adding to labor-related pressures across industries.
**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will feature several key events:
- **Fed Policy Decision**
- **FOMC Dot-Plot**
- **Powell Press Conference**
- **U.S. Retail Sales**
- **U.S. Housing Data**
As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
Historical DXY Trends/Timelines
Hello TradingView Community!
I wanted to offer up my interpretation for the all time chart for DXY/1M. There are some obvious trend lines that can be drawn across the 57 years of data that is available to us here. If you look carefully there is a recognizable pattern of hitting the bottom of the descending channel roughly every 14-16 years. Based on the exact ratios between each time price has hit bottom of channel (extended slightly each cycle.. going to skip the math here) I have calculated that we should hit the bottom of the channel around June 2026. However, 16 years ago was 2008; this was the last time we targeted the bottom of the channel. If historical trends hold true we are due for a major correction in the near-mid term for TVC:DXY . First price target is the bottom ascending support line and second is the historical descending support line. If this chart plays out how it has historically it should favor well for cryptocurrencies into next year. Best of luck! NFA.
50-50 Odds for Big Rate Cut this Wednesday The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision is teetering on a knife’s edge, with the odds of a significant cut climbing. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the chances of a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction are now evenly split at 50-50.
The decision from the cental bank comes in on Wednesday.
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, speaking last week, bolstered the case for a more aggressive move, stating the federal funds rate could be up to 200 basis points above neutral. Dudley argued there’s a “strong case” for the Fed to start big.
However, major banks are possibly leaning toward the Fed starting small. In a note, Bank of America’s analysts suggested “a small chance” of a 50bps cut, while UBS’s Brian Rose also acknowledged the possibility, though was not factoring it into his baseline.
