DXY forecast The dollar looks to be attracting buyers in breaking out of the supplying market after week of equilibrium market in secondary trend. a probable breaker counter trend demand surpluses as we wait for the break of that resistance zoneby Malloya_The_GoatUpdated 112
Pre-FOMC Rates Decision Analysis31st July (FOMC Decision Pending) DXY: Ranging between 104.20 and 104.55. If Fed makes no comment on rate cut, DXY could push up to 105.20. If Fed makes comment on rate cuts in Sept, DXY could push down to 103.65. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5930 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6450 SL 25 TP 90 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 151.50 SL 70 TP 245 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength & BoE decision tomorrow) EURUSD: Sell 1.08 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8820 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3850 SL 20 TP 45 Gold: Needs to break 2425 to trade up to 2450 (DXY weakness) by JinDao_Tai223
Dollar pared recent gains as Fed rate cut looms Fundamental Perspective: The Fed will likely keep interest rates steady and hint at a potential cut in Sep amid progress on inflation and a softer labor market. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump in key battleground states, showing more robust poll numbers than President Biden and could enhance voter turnout. Political uncertainty surrounding the US elections and potential Fed rate cuts continue to weigh on the dollar. Technical Perspective: DXY pared recent gains as it approaches the 105.00 resistance, which coincides with the Fibonacci confluence levels. If DXY reverses below 105.00, a further decline towards the 103.20 support might occur. MACD is holding below the zero threshold, which could indicate further downside potential. However, it is worth noting that a break and close above 105.00 could prompt a further rise towards 106.00. by lixing_gan0
DXY Q3 bearish bias confirmed. Quarterly: Based on the Quarterly theory this is Q3 of this year 24, & Q2 was the manipulation of this year, which has been formed upside, So the Q3-Destribution the price will go down whole August-September 2024, Draw on Liquidity: If I draw a FIB from the last year low to this year high the OTE Level is around 102-389 to 101.917. levels. So we will check any monthly PDA in this levels for the DOL, for the price. Weekly: As there was 2 W-FVG- 's bellow the PQM level's so POI of price revarsal was that 2 W-FVG- 's for revarsal. Now before the NFP Day, there are a possible W-SMT has been forming, So this confirmed me that the price is giving us a sign of revarsal. We need h4 confirmation for that to be more clear. H4: In this H4 the price has formed a bearish H4-Breaker/Unicorn formation, which is a strong sign of revarsal, in a W level of POI, which gives me farther confirmation that in the up coming week the price will move lower. So when all this 4 analogy 1. Quarterly Q3, Bearish analogy, 2. W-FVG- as a resistance, 3. H4-Bearish Breaker, 4. W-SMT in W-FVG- When placed all to-gather in the chart, it gave me a confirmation that the DXY is going down up coming 2 months. Shortby Trader_PKR1
Possibility of uptrend If the index stabilizes above the current support range, we are expected to witness the continuation of the upward trend Longby STPFOREX0
US DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOKThe Dollar is trading in a wide monthly range. Daily and weekly levels are swinging within the monthly ranges. Currently looking at a bullish bias to retest the supply zones. Longby Murder13370
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal July 30 Price rallied to delivered to my noted Daily SIBI to almost the 50% just shy. Second attempt in two trading days to rally. Price executed a 3 drive rally to take out Mondays buy stops and then reversed in NY taking the equal noted sell stops. I suspect that Price will seek lower Prices Wednesday. Price could reach to rebalance the 4 IFVG 104.284 maybe reach as low as 104.140. I consider that there is alot of red folder news tomorrow and Price could seek higher prices to the noted 4 IFVG 104.577 to rebalance as well. by LParnell0
Fake inverted H&S for DXY?Showing weakness ahead of NFP this week. Tomorrow we also have ADP figures firstly then FOMC in the evening where the market is fully pricing no change in US rates. The DXY breakout of resistance appears to be too clean and along the lines of a fake out. For highly correlated markets like EURUSD, we could be in for a run higher tomorrow taking out some liquidity above, assuming this DXY has topped out here. Shortby CIFERSTRATEGIES1
DXY Sell side Liquidity Purge (possible scenario)looking into liquidity perspective, im very positive that DXY would reach out for Lows before explosion Up the way. Shortby ArtVee0
It could pull back to the 50% of MR and FVG but leg up comingIt could pull back to the 50% of MR and FVG but leg up coming Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution - No liquidity raid = No trade - Never buy high and never sell low “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔Longby Dave-FX-HunterUpdated 119
Trade alert ( HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES)After a false breakdown we immediately with a aggressive buying came in zone. Now the zone is breakout. Now target for the recent high. High probability setup.Longby Ask3raders3
The DXY chart speaks for itself. Let silver run!The DXY is trying to hold on from a trap up that never should have ranShortby Bmello0
Dollar index in classic zigzag corrective patternGreetings, Dear friends, I hope you are well and have a week full of successful and profitable transactions. My analytical view: DXY analysis is one of the most challenging markets out there in my opinion. If we just want to see the overall structure on the daily chart, there is a bearish impulse pattern, and wave A or 1 is formed in the larger degree of the wave. Next is an impulse pattern for wave A and the continuation of a deep correction, which can also be seen as multiple zigzags, which I labeled as wave B in my aggressive idea. But what happened after wave B looks like a diagonal pattern that consists of formula 3.3.3.3, and only 3 waves are left to complete it in the bull market. A classic zigzag pattern is formed for wave B or 2 in a larger degree, and after that, we will see a drop in the dollar index. This fifth wave of the diagonal pattern after the price crossing, i.e. the price action, should be formed from the middle line of the corrective channel. Next, any corrective pattern can be a green light to enter the transaction, and then the probability of exiting the channel will increase. The point of invalidity of this analysis is based on the fourth wave of the diagonal pattern that has been completed. There is also an idea about the continuation of the downward trend, which I will share if needed Note: I am an analyst in the world of principle wave, who has entered the fourth year of my work experience, and I am developing an analytical idea. In financial markets, there is no 100% certainty due to the complexity of different patterns that can change. However, I do my best to back up every analysis I share with you guys with everything I've learned so far. A brief explanation of the three fundamental laws of the wave principle: 1. The second wave should never go beyond the beginning of the first wave. 2. The third wave should never be the shortest wave between waves 1, 3, and 5. 3. The fourth wave must never enter the territory of the first wave. Ralph Nelson Elliott was the founder of this theory, and when asked about his view of the market, he always referred to five waves in the direction of a larger trend and three waves against the direction it was taking. After completing an eight-wave cycle, a larger cycle is formed in the future, simply. May his memory be cherished, and may his soul rest in the shelter of God Almighty and the eternal world. I am attaching the analysis of this market that I shared with you earlier to this current analysis. The last word of my analysis text is repetitive, except to explain the current analysis because I also trade in the financial markets and I am active in my social networks, and I work hard to improve my skills in analysis and trading to reach my goal. I apologize for repeating the text. I welcome suggestions and criticisms, and I will respond, but a logical reason is important to me. Thank you for taking the time to review my analysis. First of all, I wish good health and success to all my dear friends and colleagues. Mr. Nobody DLongby mehdi47abbasi797
DOLLAR INDEX LONG TO $108 (UPDATE)Quick update on the DXY, as our last update on this was 2 months ago. The Dollar is moving really nice since I first posted it! Price is very close to our $108 (Wave 2) target. Using this DXY long analysis, you'd know to short the XXXUSD markets. We are still bullish on the Dollar for the time being. Will update you on its next move, when our $108 target is hit.Longby BA_Investments3
Levels discussed on Livestream 30th July 30th July DXY: Needs to stay above 104.50, could trade higher to retest resistance at 104.85, beyond resistance, next level at 105.20 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5920 SL 20 TP 45 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 15 TP 45 (Hesitation at 0.6545) USDJPY: Look for price to find key level, reaction at 154 or 156 (BoJ news pending) More likely at 156 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2840 SL 25 TP 60 EURUSD: Buy 1.0840 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY weakness, double bottom, low likelihood) USDCHF: No trade, but look for reaction at 0.8920 USDCAD: Sell 1.3830 SL 20 TP 45 (Massive counter trend) Gold: Likely to consolidate along 2390, with upside potential to 2400 (61.8%) by JinDao_Tai4
DXY AnalysisCurrently we seen DXY tap into the FVG properly. This is a decisional point because we can see a move lower from their toward equilibrium. Also, we can see price not respect the FVG. Will have to check the lower timeframes to confirm market structure shift before we can confirm the next step. by ThePatientTrader_1
US Dollar Index Poised to Rise: Key Levels 105.28 & 103.66The US dollar index is getting ready to rise to the level of 105.28 after breaking down a trend and successfully retesting. Currently, the price is moving in a sideways range in the short term. We are waiting for this range to break upwards in order to reach the level of 105.28. This scenario will remain valid unless the level of 103.66 is broken. by ahmed19998Updated 2
DXY MATRIXDXY Analysis: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently rallying towards its Last Significant Psychological Level (LSPY). This rally suggests potential strength in the US dollar in the short term. Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis: Given the inverse relationship between DXY and gold, the rally in DXY could initially suppress gold prices. However, it is anticipated that once DXY reaches its LSPY, a decline in DXY is expected. Expected Movements and Key Levels: DXY Reaching LSPY: As DXY approaches its LSPY, it indicates a potential resistance level for the dollar. A decline in DXY from this level is anticipated, which could lead to a weakening of the US dollar. Gold Structuring Bullish Momentum: With the expected decline in DXY, gold (XAU/USD) is likely to structure bullish momentum. This bullish momentum is driven by the inverse relationship, where a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices. Detailed Gold Price Analysis: Starting Price at $2390: The week begins with gold priced at $2390. Move to $2401: The price is expected to move upwards to the first point of interest at $2401. This initial move might be supported by early buying pressure. Sweep to $2410: The weekly candle formation suggests a sweep up to the psychological level of $2410. This level could act as a significant resistance, where the price might face selling pressure. Potential Decline to $2330s: After reaching $2410, selling momentum could push the price down to the $2330s. This decline could align with the initial rally in DXY, suppressing gold prices. Bullish Reversal with DXY Decline: As DXY reaches its LSPY and begins to decline, gold is expected to find support and reverse its downward trend. This reversal could see gold prices rallying, supported by the weakening dollar. Key Psychological Levels (PSY): $2400-$2410: A significant psychological zone where gold might face resistance before potential selling pressure. $2330s: A potential support level where buyers might re-enter the market, especially if DXY starts to decline. Conclusion: This week's analysis indicates that gold will initially move towards $2401, potentially sweep up to $2410, and then face selling pressure down to the $2330s. However, with the anticipated decline in DXY after reaching its LSPY, gold is expected to structure bullish momentum and potentially rally. Traders should watch these key levels and the DXY movements closely to make informed decisionsShortby Ak_capitalist3
DXY BULLISH CONTINUATION POSSIBLYIf you look at my previous DXY analysis you will see that I had DXY coming up to the zone it is currently at. Although, I do believe that DXY will be be bullish for the month of august - the smart thing to do would be to wait for this weeks upcoming data to come out to see which direction DXY will be headed. FED is hoping to cut rates up to 3 times this year and until then I am looking for the dollar to rise.Longby FatherOfCurrencies_0
DXY Trading Journal Analysis DXY Trading Journal Analysis July 29 Very sad I slept through London. What a session! I was actually expecting for Price to hang around the 50% until maybe Wednesday, and yet Price delivered my high target. Huge range day. I anticipated for Price to gravitate to the Daily BISI to rebalance it. At range 104.800 for a potential high target. Near precision target as Prices actual was 104.752. CELEBRATE! Its seems likely to expect to see Price deliver high prices this week. It seems likely that Price will gravitate to rebalancing the BISI. If Price comes back to fill in the FVG created today I could see that to the range of 104.444 to 104.080. by LParnell0
DXY Potential Long! Buy! Hello,Traders! DXY made a bullish Breakout of the key Horizontal level of 104.500 Which is now a support So we are now bullish biased And after the retest of the New support we will Be expecting a further Move up Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Longby TopTradingSignals112
Market News Report - 28 July 2024It has been quite a massive turnaround for the yen recently, being the most bullish currency with +2% boosts across each of its major counterparts. The Swiss franc also had a good run, with milder gains for the euro and British pound this past week. Let's dive deeper into each major market and how they look fundamentally and technically. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. While the Fed is slowly winning the fight against inflation, it has suggested at least one rate cut this year. This may happen at the latest meeting on Wednesday. Still, STIR (short-term interest rate) markets have priced in a 91% chance of a hold. Short-term interest rate (STIR) markets predict an 8% chance of this happening at the end of this month. As with the start of any month, traders should also keep an eye on the latest unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The Dixie was pretty mild this past week, trading in a small range. Yet, the chart is still bearish, with the key support at 103.172 and key resistance at 106.490. Long-term outlook: bearish. With markets anticipating at least two rate cuts by the Fed for the remainder of the year, the bearish bias is justified. The latest CPI and NFP data also indicate a cooling of the US economy. Only geopolitical risks and bond market selling can affect this overall sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently kept its interest rate unchanged. Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, also suggested slow economic growth in the Eurozone, with inflation expected to fluctuate around current levels. Furthermore, the President stated that September's interest rate meeting is 'wide open.' However, markets see a 63% chance of a cut thanks to the ECB's overall dovish tone. While surpassing major resistance, the break could have been more convincing. However, this market is still bullish. So, we should expect a retest at the recent level, with the new major resistance now at 1.09813 (not far from the former mark). Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.06494. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The recent unchanged interest rate is the primary bearish driver. However, the ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path in this regard despite short-term interest rate (STIR) markets indicating a 63% chance of a rate cut in September. Still, the central bank is data-dependent, where any inflation, growth, and wage improvements can lift the euro. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) continues to show dovish tendencies. STIR markets now predict a 51% chance of a BoE rate cut next month. While the British pound had firmer economic data in recent weeks (e.g., stronger Gross Domestic Product), it failed to rally higher. This is another solid bearish indication. The pound has retraced quite a bit after exceeding the recent resistance. Is it slowly aligning with the fundamentals? Let's see. The major support level is at 1.26156, while the major resistance level remains far ahead at 1.31424. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound. So, the British pound is likely to find sellers as expectations for the potential rate cut in August grow. However, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to keep the interest rate unchanged is mildly bullish for the yen. Governor Ueda also stated, "depending on economic, price, and financial data and information available at the time, there is a chance we could raise interest rates at the July meeting." Moreover, STIR markets see a 69% chance (up from 53%) of a rate hike in the meeting on Wednesday. Unfortunately, JPY bulls should know that the BoJ does things rather slowly. USD/JPY has been suddenly and surprisingly bearish in the past few weeks, breaking the major support mentioned in our last report. The new support marker is now 151.858. Conversely, the key resistance (the yen's all-time high) is at 161.950, which is too rare for the price to test anytime soon. Long-term outlook: weak bullish In addition to the expected rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include more lowering in US Treasury yields (one reason for the recent stronger JPY). Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. Due to persisting inflation highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the central bank has enough reasons to keep or hike the interest rate next month. The CPI print this coming Tuesday is another consideration, with expectations of a positive outcome. Finally, the Australian dollar shares an interesting correlation with China. Data indicating growth in this region (e.g., stimulus, new infrastructure projects, solid economic data) should lift the Aussie. The Aussie has finally broken the major support mentioned in our previous report. This culminates in a dramatic u-turn and aligns with the currency's mild bullishness fundamentally. The next area of interest for support is 0.64653. Meanwhile, the major resistance is far ahead at 0.67986. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The hot CPI for Q1 and April has pressured the RBA to increase rates, which they recognised in their meeting last month. Also, the slightly higher unemployment rate result in the past week is another impetus. Furthermore, STIR markets anticipate a 33% chance of a hike. Conversely, the Australian dollar is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries because it is a pro-cyclical currency. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: neutral. As predicted by STIR markets, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently maintained the interest rate at 5.5%. In their latest meeting, "The Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive. The extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures". In simple terms, the central bank is winning against inflation and is, thus, unlikely to raise rates. Like its closest relative (AUD), the Kiwi has trended down heavily of late. It's now close to the major support at 0.58746. Meanwhile, the major resistance is at 0.62220, an area which it's unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: neutral. The central bank's recent dovish tilt amid improving inflation puts the Kiwi in a neutral bracket. Furthermore, STIR markets anticipate a 58% (up from 50%) chance of a rate cut next month. On the flip side, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Firstly, the Bank of Canada cut rates from 4.75% to 4.50% this past week. The Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC), Macklem, had already suggested this would happen if inflation became stickier. Realistically, the BoC will drop rates slowly now or aggressively later. It's also worth noting that The mortgage stress in Canada has forced the BoC to be dovish, which is another bearish catalyst. While breaking two key resistance levels (the most recent being 1.37919), USD/CAD remains in a range mode. The latest resistance at 1.38462 is still an area to watch. On the other hand, the key support is at 1.35896. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, encouraging oil prices may redeem the Canadian dollar as a risk-sensitive currency, along with improvements in jobs, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. With a 76% chance of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting the interest rate recently, STIR markets were accurate. They also forecast a cut in September and December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. However, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. USD/CHF tested the major support area at 0.87296 but didn't have enough to break it confidently. So, there is a chance the market will be near this pathway soon. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is at 0.91582. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion This week, the new interest rate decisions for the yen and US dollar are among the most anticipated economic events. It will be interesting to see whether the former (given the upcoming new rate) can continue to crush other markets. Nonetheless, the outlooks for each major currency remain consistent from the previous week. So, keep these in mind, but be prepared for surprises as always. As always, be prepared for anything as a trader technically and fundamentally.by CityTradersImperium_CTI0
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bullish Move After ConsolidationThe Dollar Index had been trading within a horizontal range on the 4-hour chart for a significant amount of time before breaking through its resistance today. I anticipate that this breakout could lead to a bullish trend continuation, with a target price of 104.80.Longby linofx1119