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U.S. Dollar Index

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US Dollar Index From a Technician’s Point of ViewBuyers and Sellers Squaring Off Between Monthly Support and Resistance Monthly resistance from 109.33 was a technical headwind I monitored on the US Dollar Index for a while, and so far, it has not disappointed me. The said resistance welcomed moderate selling in February, and although the combination of the 107.35 high (October 2023) and 106.52 high (April 2024) could offer monthly support (see two red arrows), I am also watching the ‘local’ descending monthly support as a potential downside objective, taken from the noted high of 107.35. Daily AB=CD Support Holds Firm Meanwhile, price action on the daily timeframe reveals the Index rebounded from an area made up of ‘AB=CD support’ between the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at 105.77 and a 100% projection ratio of 106.65. It is common for AB=CD traders to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios that are derived from legs A-D, which, in this case, rest at 107.70 and 108.64, respectively. You may also note that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio shares chart space closely with resistance from 107.77. In addition, short-term flow on the H1 timeframe witnessed price rebound from support at 107.24 and shake hands with resistance at 107.61, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio that unites with trendline support-turned-resistance, taken from the low of 106.57. Daily/H1 Resistances in Focus Given possible monthly support in play from between 106.52 and 107.35, together with daily price manoeuvring from AB=CD support at 105.77-106.65 to within striking distance of resistance at 107.77 and H1 price connecting with resistance around 107.61, this is a thorny market to trade right now and hinges on how price behaves at the aforementioned daily/H1 resistances. Engulfing the noted resistances unearths a possible bullish scenario to the 50-day simple moving average at 108.00, followed by a potential move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 108.64 on the daily chart. On the other hand, should bears take control of the current resistances, I would look for the unit to retest (and eventually consume) H1 support at 107.24 to potentially target H1 support at 106.75 (located just north of the daily AB=CD support zone). Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXY
by FPMarkets
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (37800) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 38500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 36500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. ⚡Fundamental Analysis Fundamental factors driving DXY focus on U.S. economic conditions, Fed policy, and global currency dynamics. Interest Rates: U.S. Federal Reserve: Rates steady at 3-3.5%, down from 2024’s 4.5-5%. Fed officials stress data dependency, with no cuts signaled despite weak PMI (50.4) and jobless claims (219,000 vs. 215,000 forecast). Real yields (10-year Treasury at 3.8%, ~1% inflation-adjusted) support USD. Other Countries: ECB at 2.5%, BoJ at 0.25-0.5%, BoE at 4-4.5%—U.S. yield advantage persists, though narrowing. Impact: Bullish for DXY, tempered by global easing. Inflation: U.S.: PCE at 2.6% YoY (Jan 2025), above the Fed’s 2% target, with producer inflation hotter-than-expected (X posts). Inflation fears linger, supporting USD. Other Countries: Eurozone at 2.8%, Japan at 2.5%, UK at 2.5-3%—global inflation pressures USD rivals less. Impact: Bullish, as U.S. inflation sustains Fed hawkishness. Economic Growth: U.S.: Mixed signals—PMI at 50.4 (near stagnation), jobless claims up, but ADP jobs beat at 183,000 (Jan 2025). Tariffs add uncertainty. Other Countries: China at 4.5% (slowing), Eurozone at 1.2%, Japan at 1%—U.S. outperforms peers. Impact: Mildly bullish, U.S. resilience aids USD. Safe-Haven Flows: USD competes with JPY and CHF amid tariff risks and geopolitical flare-ups (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East). Recent yen strength (X posts) pressures DXY. Impact: Mildly bearish, global risk-off challenges USD dominance. Trade Balance: U.S. deficit persists, but Trump’s tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China) aim to bolster USD via trade shifts. Impact: Bullish long-term, short-term neutral. ⚡Macroeconomic Factors U.S.-focused with global context: U.S. Policy: Fed’s tighter stance vs. global easing (ECB, BoJ) favors USD. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility, potentially strengthening USD via trade protectionism. Global Growth: 3% (Morgan Stanley), with China slowing and Eurozone stagnant (PMI 46.2). U.S. relative strength supports DXY. Commodity Prices: Oil at $70.44 pressures import-heavy peers (Japan), mildly weakening JPY vs. USD. Currency Dynamics: Yen strength and EUR softness (EUR/USD below 1.0500) drag DXY lower recently, ⚡Commitments of Traders (COT) Data Hypothetical COT (mid-Feb 2025, CME): Large Speculators: Net long USD ~70,000 contracts (down from 80,000 post-110 peak), cooling after profit-taking. Commercial Hedgers: Net short USD ~80,000, hedging export exposure as tariffs loom. Open Interest: ~150,000 contracts, stable, reflecting U.S. trader engagement. Key Insight: Speculative longs suggest bullish bias, but moderation hints at consolidation. ⚡Market Sentiment Analysis Includes retail, institutional, and corporate traders: Retail Sentiment: U.S. retail traders likely 60% short DXY at 106.000 (hypothetical broker data), betting on yen/CHF gains. Contrarian upside risk if shorts unwind. Institutional Traders: U.S. funds (e.g., Citi, HSBC) mixed—bearish short-term (DXY to 96.87, Citi Hong Kong), bullish long-term (WalletInvestor to 119.193). Sentiment leans cautious. Corporate Traders: U.S. exporters hedge at 106.50-107.00, neutral as tariffs loom; European firms favor EUR weakness. Social Media (X): notes yen-driven DXY weakness, sees bearish momentum to 106.15—trending bearish. Broker Data: U.S. IG sentiment ~55% long—balanced positioning. ⚡Quantitative Analysis Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (106.30), 200-day SMA (105.50)—price below 50-day, above 200-day, neutral signal. RSI: 45 (daily), bearish momentum fading, room for reversal. Bollinger Bands: 105.80-106.80 range, 106.000 at midpoint—consolidation likely. Fibonacci: 38.2% retracement from 110.00-102.50 at 105.62—key support holds. Volatility Model: Implied volatility (1-month) at 7%, suggesting 0.75-point monthly range (±0.7%). ⚡Intermarket Analysis USD/JPY: At 150.00, yen strength pressures DXY; drop to 145 could accelerate declines. EUR/USD: Below 1.0500, EUR weakness supports DXY mildly. Gold: XAU/USD at 2940 (risk-off proxy) inversely pressures USD. Equities: S&P 500 range-bound (5960-6120) reflects stability, neutral for DXY. Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield at 3.8% vs. JGB at 0.9%—yield gap aids USD. ⚡News and Events Analysis Recent: Trump’s tariff threats (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China, Feb 23-25) fuel risk-off, pressuring DXY via yen strength (X posts). Weak U.S. PMI and jobless claims offset by PCE at 2.6% (Jan 2025). Upcoming: U.S. PCE data (Feb 28) critical—hotter data could lift DXY, softer data bearish. Fed rhetoric pending. Impact: Bearish near-term from risk-off, bullish potential from Fed stance. ⚡Overall Summary Outlook DXY at 106.000 balances U.S. resilience (Fed policy, inflation) against global risk-off pressures (tariffs, yen strength). Fundamentals favor USD long-term, but macro risks and sentiment (retail shorts, X bearishness) suggest near-term softness. COT shows cautious longs, quant signals consolidation, and intermarket flows (gold rise, yen strength) lean bearish. Short-term dip to 105.50-105.91 likely, medium-term range-bound with a bullish tilt if Fed holds firm. ⚡Future Prediction Bullish Case: DXY to 108.00-110.00 by Q2 2025 if PCE/Fed bolster USD, tariffs lift trade flows, and risk-on resumes. Bearish Case: Drop to 103.50-105.00 if yen/CHF surge, tariffs falter, or Fed dovishness emerges. Prediction: Mildly bearish short-term to 105.50, then bullish to 108.00 by mid-2025, driven by Fed policy divergence. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Thief_Trader
DXY – Break or Bounce? Key Levels to WatchTVC:DXY The DXY has broken below the 106.96 support, establishing a new fractal at 106.14 while testing the major April 2024 fractal resistance forged at 106.51. This price action leaves the dollar in a critical decision zone, with two main scenarios in play: 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If the dollar holds above the newly formed support and reclaims the daily fractal resistance at 107.38, it could trigger a recovery attempt, potentially leading to a retest of previous highs and the weekly fractal resistance. 2️⃣ Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold current levels could push the DXY below the emerging triangle structure, targeting the weekly fractal support at 105.42. A break below this level increases the probability of reaching the 200% Fibonacci extension at 104.59, where a bullish Crab pattern is projected in convergence —a critical area for potential trend reversals. 🔍 Key Technical Factors: 📌 Consolidation Triangle: DXY is stuck below the double top neckline but above the most recent fractal support forged at 106.14. 📌 Fibonacci Levels : The dollar is currently trading at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (106.35) , with projected harmonic patterns aligning near the next 50% retracement level. 📌 Liquidity & Stop Hunts: Multiple bullish harmonic patterns emerging just below the weekly fractal support indicate possible stop-hunting activity against short positions. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: 📈 Resistance Levels: Weekly – 110.17 Daily – 107.38 4H – 106.65 Monthly – 106.51 📉 Support Levels: 4H – 106.17 Daily – 106.14 Weekly – 105.42 Monthly – 100.15 ⚠️ Final Thoughts: DXY is at a crucial inflection point. A breakout above 107.38 could fuel a bullish move, while a breakdown below 105.42 may accelerate a bearish extension towards 104.59-104.78. Until the price confirms direction, it is advisable to remain neutral and wait for a clear signal before committing to a directional bias. Happy Trading, André Cardoso 💡 Risk Warning: Trading financial assets carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. Make sure to fully understand the risks involved before you start trading and carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. The data and information provided in this content do not constitute financial or investment advice and should not be considered as such. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and be aware of the risks associated with trading financial assets.
TVC:DXY
by Andre_Cardoso
U.S. Dollar IndexU.S. Dollar Index - Daily Dear traders, I sincerely apologize for my absence during this time; I have lost my father, who has passed away. I have not been well over the past two weeks, and I regret not being able to provide an analysis. DXY Chart Update I have updated the DXY chart and present it to you now. We know that in smart money analysis, it shows us the primary market trend structure, and by mapping the daily structure, it indicates that this chart is in an upward trend. Currently, we are looking for suitable areas to buy the dollar. Confirmation of Major High and Market Movements After confirming the major high with the price reaching the first standard pullback, which I indicated on the chart with IDM, and ultimately reaching the Decisional Order Block, we experienced a good upward move together with a proper buy. However, unfortunately, our major high was not broken, and the market pursued a downward phase towards the IFC Candles. Current Status and Key Levels Now, at the beginning of this week, with the price reaching this important IFC block and receiving confirmation in the 4-hour timeframe, we can set our target at the important resistance level of 109.533, which I have designated as my first target. Additionally, there is a 4-hour resistance at the price of 107.182 that should be closely monitored. Based on this dollar chart, this week we can look to sell euros, pounds, Australian dollars, and New Zealand dollars while buying Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, and Swiss francs. However, it is essential that we also examine other charts and find entry points on those charts as well. My focus this week is on buying the dollar and selling other currencies. I will be updating the entry points for the other charts today and sharing them in my channel. Fundamental News In his latest speech, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized the continuation of contractionary policies to control inflation and mentioned the ongoing strengthening of the dollar. He highlighted positive signs in the U.S. economic growth, which increases the likelihood of a rise in the dollar's value this week. Source: Jerome Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve meeting, February 2025. Wishing you all success! Fereydoon Bahrami A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex) Risk Disclosure: Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
TVC:DXYLong
by fereydoon1199
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 106.618. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 107.382. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar Index - End of February Analysis- Below the opening price of the 3-month bullish order block, a monthly BISI @ 104.636 – 105.420 presents itself - Failed to see last months high taken out all whilst trading into the 6-month SIBI. Last months lows has been taken although price closed inside the previous. months range - Studying a draw to February's low @ 106.126 as the 1st point of interest - Monthly candle body closure above the midpoint of Februarys high and open will negate this idea.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince