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U.S. Dollar Index

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[4H] DXY - Mid-Term Analysis Under Donald TrumpThe U.S. dollar experienced heightened volatility on the day of Donald Trump’s hypothetical inauguration for a second term as president, reflecting market uncertainty around his policy agenda. Below is an analysis of potential drivers for the dollar’s trajectory, incorporating short-term dynamics and longer-term risks: --- 1. Tariffs, Inflation, and the Fed’s Response A renewed push for reciprocal—and potentially universal (due to practicality)—tariffs could disrupt global trade flows, raising import costs for U.S. businesses and consumers. Coupled with an already tight labor market, these pressures could accelerate inflation. Elevated input costs (e.g., raw materials, manufactured goods) might manifest in key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as early as Q2 2024 (March-May), particularly if supply chains face renewed bottlenecks. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve —which remains staunchly data-dependent—could respond with rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations. Higher interest rates would likely bolster the dollar’s appeal in the near term, attracting foreign capital seeking yield advantages in U.S. Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. Markets may price in this hawkish pivot ahead of official Fed action, amplifying short-term dollar strength. --- 2. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Risks Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric (e.g., targeting China, the EU, or emerging markets) risks sparking retaliatory measures, reviving fears of a global trade war. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty could drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. This dynamic would likely support the DXY (Dollar Index) in the short term, particularly if equity markets react negatively to protectionist policies. --- 3. Long-Term Risks: Economic Slowdown and Eroded Confidence While tariffs and inflation may initially buoy the dollar, their prolonged implementation could backfire. Sticky or increased inflation combined with higher borrowing costs (from Fed hikes) might dampen consumer spending, corporate investment, and GDP growth. Simultaneously, trade barriers could shrink export opportunities for U.S. industries, exacerbating economic headwinds. Over a multi-year horizon, these factors could undermine confidence in the dollar’s stability, especially if deficits widen or growth stagnates ( stagflation risks ). Markets are forward-looking, however, and may begin discounting these risks earlier—potentially as soon as late 2024—if trade tensions escalate or growth indicators falter. --- Conclusion: Volatility as the Only Certainty The dollar’s path will hinge on the speed and scale of policy implementation, the Fed’s reaction function, and global market sentiment. While short-term strength is plausible due to rate hike expectations and safe-haven flows, structural risks loom on the horizon. Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style adds layers of uncertainty, suggesting the dollar could face a turbulent, news-driven cycle. Investors should brace for whipsaw moves in the DXY, with tactical opportunities in the near term countered by longer-term macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Key Watchpoints: CPI prints (Q2 2024), Fed meeting language, trade negotiation timelines, and global central bank responses to U.S. protectionism. --- This analysis balances immediate catalysts with structural shifts, acknowledging the dollar’s role as both a haven and a victim of its own policy successes.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by KenzoYagai
USD Under Pressure: Impact Retail Sales and Trade TensionsThe U.S. dollar faces another challenging session, with the DXY index dropping 0.4% in the end-of-week session and posting a weekly decline of 1.4%, bringing the greenback to levels unseen since early December. This performance is largely attributed to disappointing January retail sales data and trade tensions stemming from the potential implementation of more “meticulous” tariffs than initially expected, some of which may not take effect until April. Retail sales, one of the key indicators of U.S. consumer strength, fell 0.9% month-over-month in January, significantly below the -0.1% expected by analysts. This marks the sharpest contraction since March 2023, reflecting the impact of adverse weather conditions and specific factors such as the Los Angeles wildfires. Sectors such as sporting goods, vehicles and parts, and e-commerce experienced the largest declines. This deterioration in domestic demand is further reinforced by the drop in “core” sales for GDP calculations—which exclude food, automobiles, building materials, and gasoline—coming in at -0.8%. In terms of monetary policy, this data supports the likelihood of a second rate cut in 2025. Futures markets are now pricing in approximately 38 basis points of easing before year-end, a notable adjustment from the 26 basis points anticipated just the day before. The scale of this market revision reflects the relative shift in the economic outlook following weak consumer data. Naturally, this expectation of lower returns on dollar-denominated assets, with the U.S. Treasury yield falling 6 basis points to 4.47%, exerts downward pressure on the U.S. currency. Looking at the short- and medium-term outlook, the dollar’s performance will continue to be shaped by the evolution of trade tensions. The recent executive order signed by President Donald Trump includes the adoption of “reciprocal tariffs”, though the final scope of these measures remains uncertain. If the administration continues to adopt a “surgical” approach to counter what it considers unfair trade imbalances, the market may find further reasons to dismiss the scenario of a stronger greenback. Should this bearish trend for the USD persist, the next key level for the DXY index is around 105. The dollar’s trajectory will depend both on expectations for additional Fed rate cuts and tariff decisions, both of which will be critical in shaping the next few months. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Elliott Wave Insight: DXY Correction to 100 ?PEPPERSTONE:USDX TVC:DXY TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY 📊 DXY Analysis with Elliott Waves 🌊 Wave (B) appears to be completing around 109. A corrective decline toward the 100 zone (Wave (C)) is likely. Key Fibonacci targets: 100% at 95.06 and 127.2% at 90.93. 🔎 Keep an eye on price action near these levels for potential reversals. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by Trwin
US Dollar 2025 "Crash" The DXY (USD Index) has exhibited remarkable strength over the past few years, generating significant market volatility as it surges and retraces. The dollar’s inverse relationship with global markets—when measured against USD—is undeniable. On a broader time frame, we can clearly identify inverse correlations between stock market troughs and peaks seen in the dollar. Presently, I believe the dollar has completed a substantial rally reaching a peak at the 0.618 retracement level of the 2022 uptrend, just above 109. This level has now prompted a rejection. When I observe this type of price action, I immediately consider the potential for a corrective 1-to 1 move downward. In essence, this suggests that the second leg of the decline may mirror the magnitude of the initial wave, forming an equal-length corrective move. By utilizing the trend-based Fibonacci extension, we can identify a projected local low around 95, with this timeframe aligning with November 2025. Interestingly, historical data suggests that bull markets frequently reach their peaks toward the end of the year, often around November or December. Should this correction materialize, it would likely serve as a highly bullish catalyst for broader markets—potentially fuelling one last major rally before a more pronounced pullback.
TVC:DXYShort
by afurs1
DXY Trading Journal Feb 13 Analysis DXY Trading Journal Feb 13 Analysis Price did gravitate to 15M and rebalance in Asia and London and lowered to the sell side and equal lows, Price did react and come to the 50 in NY before furthering it decline for lower prices, seeking another key low. Note I stated yesterday that I suspected a long in NY, and it only came up to the CE of the dealers range, leading me to think that we are in fact a bearish bias. Price is in discount on the weekly, and daily an previous sessions range.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXYThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. It serves as a key indicator of the dollar’s value in global markets. The index tends to rise when the dollar strengthens and falls when it weakens. Major economic events, Federal Reserve policies, inflation data, and geopolitical developments significantly impact its movements. Traders and investors use the DXY to assess currency trends, hedge risks, and make informed decisions in forex and commodities markets.
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by HavalMamar
🇺🇸 Is Trump Really Making America Great Again? Or Is DXY Telli🇺🇸 Is Trump Really Making America Great Again? Or Is DXY Telling a Different Story? 💰 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical crossroads, pulling back to weekly support while sitting at deep Fibonacci retracement levels. This is a key area to watch—if support holds, we could see a strong rebound. But if it fails, a deeper pullback and correction may be on the horizon. Keep an eye on this level—the next move could set the tone for what’s ahead. 📉📈
TVC:DXY
by samstoobad
DXY Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 107.865. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 110.063 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
**DXY 4H Analysis: Ascending Channel Support, Bullish Move AheadThis DXY 4H chart shows an ascending channel with multiple BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) points. The price is currently near the lower trendline support, around 107.754, suggesting a potential bullish reaction. A minor BOS has formed, and a possible retest of the 108.000 zone could act as confirmation for a bullish move. If the price holds above this support, the next upside target is around 110.062. However, a breakdown below the ascending trendline could indicate weakness, with support levels at 107.706–107.675 and a stronger demand zone lower around 106.400.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DeGRAM | DXY retest of the trend lineDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines. The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and has already reached the dynamic support, which has previously acted as a rebound point twice. The chart dropped below the 62% retracement level and afterwards formed a harmonic pattern and even though the descending structure has been maintained, the index has not yet formed a descending bottom. We expect that after consolidation above 107.760 DXY may rise in the channel to the nearest resistance at 108.540. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
4