Comparing the Nasdaq, S&P, and the M2 money supplyThe current drawdown in the stock market may not appear like much when looking at a monthly chart, however when comparing to the money supply it tells a different story. From the peak of the dot com bubble the entire market is still down significantly when adjusted for all the money printing the fed has done.
IXIC trade ideas
Nasdaq Composite Index divided by M1 and M2 money supply The current drawdown in the Nasdaq may not appear like much when looking at a monthly chart for example, however when comparing to the money supply it tells a different story. Compared to M2 we are at the same level seen in early 2020, however compared to M1 we are at levels not seen since 1991.
NASDAQ: normalization outlook, zoomed outHi,
In my previous post about NASDAQ I shared my points why I removed my share holdings in October 2021, and what targets I'm looking at before taking US tech positions again (not sooner than H2 2022).
Here's a zoomed out view, with some important long-term averages and a trend line I'm looking at. I'm not sure about Target 3, but that level is also possible to reach. My best bet would be that it will reach to target 2.
The previous explanation.
Be safe out there.
Cheers,
Antonio
NASDAQ - LongThe index has most probably completed either the whole or the first phase of a correction. A daily close above 12275/570 is needed to give more credit for a recovery towards 13020 and 13640.Only a daily close above 15115 would eliminate additional losses for now and open the door to new highs.
On the other hand, a daily close below 11015 would revive a downward extension to 10125 and 9580.
We recommend building small long positions at market with a stop loss at 11020.
NASDAQ Corrective WaveNasdaq is currently on corrective WAVE 3 on it's way to finish WAVE 4.
Looks like it's making a Zig Zag ABC correction and if it's true, then we could see a rebound from the "BLUE zone" to close several gap there before continue it's journey to WAVE 5.
Last correction area is the "YELLOW line".
Wave 4 invalid if price's touching the "RED line".
Nasdaq will drop more U.S. NASDAQ has lost its 200 days SMA.
according its price action , I think the correction will be finished when it drops at least more than 18% to reach its 200 weeks SMA , or it will be in a squeezing range situation for a long time , then 200 weeks SMA will come up to the price pattern.
in this moment , I will be cash or invest very tiny.
NASDAQ INDEX TREND AND WAVE ANALYSISBe sure to stick to Stop Lost and TAkE Profit. This is an idea and not a bargain offer
This is just idea, not trading advice, use at own risk.
reasons:
It is recommended to buy in this price limit
It is mandatory to pay attention to the stop loss and the target marked on the chart
Do not be greedy and adhere to the specified principles. I hope you will be profitable
Note that there is no 100% analysis and it is possible to stop flirting
This is a personal analysis and you should not enter into a transaction without review
If you know this, make a purchase
Be sure to adhere to the principles of capital management and do not invest more than 2% of your capital in each transaction.
High-risk individuals can enter a maximum of 5% of risk capital in this transaction by accepting risk-taking.
This analysis has been analyzed with the classic Elliott topics and neo wave style. Also, the principles of price action have been used.
2000 vs 2022Some similarities between 2000 vs 2022
1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33%
2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now
3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now
4. Mass retail participation
5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?)
6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com)
7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com)
What to wait for
1. Holding or not 40SMA!!!
2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months
3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended
4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections
When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system!
I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent!
I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
Nasdaq Elliot Wave. Long against LogicI usually trade off just price action, but I find this Elliot Wave on the Daily Timeframe, too close to textbook not to be curious whether it's really a thing.
The proportions of the Waves are pretty spot on with the typical standards.
Despite being bearish for awhile, and in the medium term like 6-12 months out, I think we get a nice run up for awhile.
There seems to be a lot of scared cash on the sidelines, if you look up the Data like the Managers Funds index etc. Could be a nice little FOMO in.
We shall see, if it rips, how eager people will be to sell the Rips,...or if the sentiment changes and it's "let it ride." Humans have such bad short term memories, we can go bearish to bullish in the same given day, I know I do sometimes :)
working out some kinksthe large gap at 11,187 finally filled with a bounce! good sign that the destruction in the nasdaq stocks could be nearing a turning point. real company earnings are doing quite well and most stocks have been absolutely crushed. the nasdaq 100 has held up more likely bc megacap tech has taken a beating last which likely to continue some more. good news for stocks that have been overly punished -40% or more with great fundamentals, bottoming is a process as they say!
1995-1998 fractalI have placed the fractal from 1995-1998 over 2016-2022 and there are very strong similarities in the price action. During the majority of the 1990s bull market the nasdaq comp made very aggressive moves up followed by very sharp 20-30% corrections. This is very similar to market we are in now with multiple corrections like this that have happened. With the Nasdaq Comp down 30% and testing the 150wma we could expect a very sharp recovery soon.
identical scenario could trigger a significant relief rallyHello trading family:
After long time of being on the sidelines i decided to start preparing my shopping list for the next possible relief rally. I don't want to call it a " bull run " like we had back in march 2020 since we have a much complicated macro economic and geopolitical scenarios. we have a sky rocket inflation and a very hawkish fed , we have the war in ukraine and the lockdowns in china. take a look at the nasdaq chart. we went down about 33% during the covid crash , and we are 30% down now since the last peak in nov 2021. we can see on the chart that we about to meet again with the 200 ma. last time that happened , we enjoyed a very strong rally. lets hope we will get some green consecutive days.
IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over? IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over?
#IXIC #NASDAQ #US30 #RUT #SPX500
NASDAQ:IXIC corrects 50% from the swing of 2020 bottoms.
Is it over? Economic fundamentals claim it has not bottomed out yet.
Most of the IT stocks gave the way for this correction. #TSLA #AMZN #FB #NFLX and so on to name.
Is it time for investment? Yes, for a long term holder who is not bothered with a small dips of 5-7% further fall, should start investing.
Are you salaried class person with a constant earning coming every month end? Or u have a business with a strong mindset of risk management and risk handling?
Be prepared with your investment plans! Personal Finances and Taxation. Earnings and Expenses. Savings and Return on Investment All are to be aligned in this latest world of increased necessities and demands with scarcity of resources.
As we have always read, this is actually happening in front of us.
Are we prepared?
Inflation and Unemployment will tame our greed and carelessness towards resources.
Investment opportunities? Ample of opportunities, waiting for appropriate investment entry.
Start investing start trading. Tradingview !
#tradingview.
Daily Market Update for 5/6Summary: The market continued to correct as the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose on Friday. Defensive sectors in the S&P 500 gained while other sectors sank.
Notes
A brief update today due to holidays and travel. I will be traveling for the next week as well but will try to keep the Daily Market Update going.
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, May 6, 2022
Facts: -1.40%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 42%, Body: 28% Red
Good: Closing range is ok
Bad: Lower high, lower low, higher volume sell-off
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Thin body in middle of long upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 0.27, almost four declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.57%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-1.69%), VIX (-3.24%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.98%) and Utilities (XLU +0.80%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.43%) and Communications (XLC -2.06%) at the bottom.
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Market Overview
A brief update today due to holidays and travel. The market continued to correct as the US Dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose on Friday. Defensive sectors in the S&P 500 gained while other sectors sank.
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Looking ahead
Fed's Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak on Monday. Bostic is on the hawkish side of the Fed and could stoke fears of higher interest rate hikes despite Jerome Powell's assurance they would limit to 50 basis points.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq fell to 12,000 before getting support on Friday. Some analysts have forecasted 12,000 as the bottom during this correction, but time and the market will tell if that's true. The 40w EMA is at 11,750.07. The index dipped below this line only in the 2000, 2008, and 2020 crashes.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 3/29 high, that would mean a +0.66% gain for Monday.
The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.67% decline.
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Wrap-up
Analysts have been waiting for broad market capitulation and maybe we've seen some over the past two days, or maybe there is more to come. Watch the two levels at 12,000 and 11,750. If those levels hold, then we could see some upside from there.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Nasdaq 2000 vs Nasdaq 2022So many similarities...
1. Mass participation of retail
2. Enthusiasm about new technology! it was .com back then it is crypto now!
3. Failed IPOs/SPACs
4. Is it that obvious??? We just don't fight the FED? no technical analysis, no fundamental, no politics, NOTHING???
5. Can the bomb fall twice in the same place?
Let's all short Nasdaq and make money right??? not so sure...
Legend for TL Swing , H S&R , DB DT F BOLegend
=================
TL Swing ,
H S&R ,
DB/DT (F BO)
---------------------------------------------------------------
Check List:
------------------
1) 3T TL BO
2) DB/DT & F BO
3) H S&R BO
4) Sustain above S&R and special bar @ option chart
(Big bar, Pin bar, Inside / outside bar)
5) HH Entry
6) Compare Nifty & BN enter when form good pattern
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6) Only entery high probability Trade
(3 Trades Weekly double your money)
7) Exit only @ TP or SL or BE
(more than 20p / 30m)