IXIC Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for IXIC is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 10753.57, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 10207.47, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 11521.97, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
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IXIC trade ideas
NASDAQ INDEX ANG BULLISH SIGNSInstrument: COMP
Optimal technical indicator: Momentum 140
Current signal of optimal tech indicator: LONG
Optimal technical indicator win-rate: 58%
Days for backtesting: 2221
Timeframe for backtesting: 1D
Price at the time of forecast: 11 079,1570
Enter point (market): on chart
Take-profit (model data): on chart
Current stop-loss: on chart
Multiple for stop-loss strategy ATR(14) x 1,2
Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 1
Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 16
Average profit per 1 trade: 1,96%
Projected annual return w/o leverage: 24,6%
Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 100%
Technical analysis recommendations:
Long: 50%
Short: 44%
Neutral: 6%
Comments: Although the situation is still 50/50, the chart shows signs of a bullish trend
Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.3K technical strategies
2022 crash or 2024 crash?I'm personally believe there is a possibility of a correction this year, but I am very often two years off in my predictions, so I have mocked up a little blow off top and a crash in 2024, hopefully this gives young people a few years to accumulate a large amount of stocks, as before 2034, if all goes well, stocks and the markets will go very well for everyone for a long period of time. a scenario in which there is a market crash in 2024 is actually very good for our children, and will help to reset the valuations of commodities for them and help to give them an abundant life over the next 60 years, so if your old, put all of that wealth into safe, inflation hedged place and watch the drama play out without any greed or fear. for now I am personally taking low risk actions and playing the long high probability game of long term investing, but I am ready for anything.
Remember always, that money is rigged to be worth less over time, so despite this prediction, money is still not a smart thing to have too much of, maybe a two years supply or a maximum of 20% of your wealth, but money is what money does, and money is fools gold, you can't take it with you and life is the accumulation of experiences, a wealth of experiences if you will. Live your life and let your wealth give you the ability to live your best life, you only get one shot at today, live your best day every day.
If you live away from geopolitical issues, don't try and predict their outcome, but keep taking the smart, high probability path and win, if you take risks, always protect the downside and learn from every mistake.
Moment of truth (NASDAQ)This is a long-term trendline on the NASDAQ log chart (1M). It seems like we've finally reached a decisive point in the ongoing Fed vs Inflation saga. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next. If we break the trendline like we did in 2008, we're likely to take the elevator down and then spend the next few years catching up to the trendline again.
Bulls will want to see a bounce off this zone however and if we do, believe it or not, we're likely to continue trending higher and go on another bull run until the next crisis hits.
All eyes on the charts!
A potential continuation of technical downtrends on display
Nasdaq Composite Index(IXIC); A strong continuation of technical downtrends on display in the daily time frame.
Two technical patterns need to be observed in the daily chart. The bearish flag pattern outlined in blue and the long-term price channel developed during the Covid-19 pandemic both aligned with the 10353 support line, which could trigger a sell-off.
The index survived the previous pullback to the 10353 support line but will it survive this time? 10353 and 10038 estimates are considered critical support levels according to the technical indicator. 10038 is the last line of defence; fail at this level, and the index could fall to 9518 and 8486.
Not financial advice; the analysis is based on my technical indicator for educational purposes only.
You can follow my work for future updates on the stock market as we continue to navigate through market volatility.
NASDAQ MORE DOWNSIDE!I still see downside in 2023, the chart is showing a similar pattern to the DOTCOM BUBBLE.
I just see bear market rallies and some considerable time until we see a major trend reversal.
We have just finished the 2nd BUBBLE which was led by the creation of BITCOIN which was born out of the Financial Crash in 2008. The age of low interest rates are also over and the time of making easy money is over.
This is just for my own trading journey and pure speculation, if you enjoy please like and comment below.
Thanks
Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on Dec 16 2022After the announcement of the 50 basis point rate hike last night, the market responded with a decline. The 50 basis point rate hike had been expected. The focus was on the follow-up speech by Powell. After the announcement of the rate hike data, the market started to rally at 3:35 am. Powell made some optimistic remarks during the period, such as a "welcome decline" in inflation. At the same time, the economy has maintained moderate growth. But the market was also reminded that the lesson of history is not to relax policy too soon. There are at least 50 basis points to be added next year, and they will be maintained for some time. Next year's rates will also be the peak of the current round of rate hikes.
Overall, the events that took place last night, including the speeches, were almost exactly what the market expected. Whether it was a 50 basis point hike or continued hawkishness, it was all expected. And even though the remarks were hawkish, what was revealed was all positive. For example, the Fed increase in interest rates at the beginning of a sharp, the market generally expected recession and inflation needed to choose one of two. But a year down the road, it temporarily achieved both control inflation economy and continues improving the situation. Because of the lag of monetary policy, the subsequent inflation may see an accelerated decline. A peak next year means the same as telling the market that interest rate increases will stop next year. And the median interest rate of 5.1% next year also determines that the space for rate hikes next year is only 50-100 basis points. Combined with the current situation, the probability is 50%. Stay hawkish just because it's not time to celebrate yet. The Fed will continue to do its job.
The suspense is still left until the first quarter of next year, but the overall trend is already obvious.
BKEX Institute Annual Strategy Report(2022–2023)In 2022, the world experienced an epidemic, war, and sanctions against China and Russia from Europe and the U.S. Many factors have pushed up commodity prices, especially energy. Epidemics and wars have also impacted supply chains, leading to imbalances in supply and demand. On top of that, global central banks release massive amounts of liquidity to rescue the economy during the epidemic. This has shown that the composition of this inflation problem is relatively complex.
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As far as the data is concerned, inflation is concentrated in the two main categories of food (10.9%) and energy (17.6%), as well as the breakdown of automobiles (8.4%) and transportation services (15.2%). It can be seen that rising commodity and energy prices are the leading cause of inflation problems.
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Inflation in food comes mainly from poultry, eggs, cereals, and cereal products. Poultry and eggs are mainly due to the more serious avian influenza outbreaks in producing countries this year, resulting in lower production. The avian flu is still severe, and output has not recovered. Russia and Ukraine make and export wheat in cereal, accounting for 20% and 28% of the world’s production, respectively. There are no signs of the conflict cooling down. Therefore, it should be difficult for this part of inflation to fall quickly. But there is relative optimism: the prices of alternatives such as pork, beef, and dairy products have already declined in the October data. And inflation on food is not a significant problem as long as it remains stable and does not increase significantly.
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The primary sources of energy inflation are gasoline (17.5%), fuel oil (68.5%), electricity (14.1%), and natural gas (20%). Of these, fuel oil rose 68.5%. However, there is a clear seasonality in demand for fuel. After the end of the heating season in January next year, it will naturally decline significantly.
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Also, combine this with the sharp decline in U.S. oil reserves when oil prices were high this year. Events such as the bizarre bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the massive U.S. exports of high-priced natural gas to Europe make it easy to conclude that energy prices have been under control.
On top of that, we can see that commodity and energy price indices are already falling. This part of the decline is not reflected in the last CPI data for October, which is the consumer side of the price response, while the PPI is the production side, which can be interpreted as a leading index. Therefore, we can remain optimistic about future inflation data.
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Nasdaq review Short term & Medium Term AnalysisNasdaq at 11105 current level,
Currently on a rising wedge pattern.
If a break out happens above 11720- 11750 going past above the wedge, it can take it to initial target of 13100.
On a downside, since currently markets are less than MA 50 level, the side ward movement continues.
it needs a clear break out above 11185 level, and move past 11450 ( Prev high)
Nasdaq dotcom bubble 2022. Bottom may be around mid 2023/2024This is 1 year chart.
The Nasdaq has been overbought in term of RSI and upper Bollinger overshoot
Short until 1 year mid bollinger around 5.8k to 6.3k
We now have crypto bubble burst (Bitcoin won't vanish but the price will go down significantly), tech bubble burst, unprofitable company bubble burst
The Fed may start being dovish, but the focus should shift to recession fear and deceleration of growth of big tech companies in US
There is also FTX contagion (in crypto universe) and soon to be Lehman Brother of 2022, Credit Suisse.
Nasdaq dot-com bubble crisis compared to 2022 bear marketcompared dot-com crisis to current crisis on the Nasdaq / QQQ
Orange line is the money printing graph from the fed- which had never stop printing money during crisis and this time- there's no more $$ printing for quite a while
Time will tell if history repeats it self
Nasdaq dot-com bubble crisis compared to 2022 bear marketcompared dot-com crisis to current crisis on the sp500
Orange line is the money printing graph from the fed- which had never stop printing money during crisis and this time- there's no more $$ printing for quite a while
Time will tell if history repeats it self