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Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
Tradingdaq | NAS100 Market Daily Technical AnalysisStock exchanges were closed last Thursday, reopening for a half-day on Friday, all in a celebratory spirit following Thanksgiving. The stock indexes wrapped up the week and month on a strong positive note, buoyed by the optimism surrounding Trump’s presidency. The Nasdaq surged 0.8% in the shortened session, sealing the week and month with a 1.1% gain, and it achieved an impressive 6.2% growth for the entire month of November. This marks the index's best month since May. With three out of the last four months ending on a high note, the Nasdaq has soared 28% since the start of the year. If the price increases and a bullish candle closes above 20870, my target will be 21040.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by iamtradingdon
Strengthening Your NASDAQ Strategy: Key Insights for Next WeekRecent Performance: The NASDAQ index has recently displayed underperformance against major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, with choppy price action and high volatility reflecting investor uncertainty. Despite other indices reaching new heights, the NASDAQ's struggle amid a generally bullish market suggests potential caution ahead. - Key Insights: Investors should be mindful of the NASDAQ's current struggles as disappointing tech earnings have dampened sentiment, indicating possible risks for new entrants. Close attention to key support and resistance levels will be crucial for making informed trading decisions. - Expert Analysis: Experts regard the NASDAQ as being at a critical turning point, with the underperformance largely attributed to the tech sector's challenges. While the overall market maintains an optimistic outlook, the NASDAQ remains vulnerable to volatility. A careful approach is recommended given the mixed signals emerging from its performance in relation to other key indices. - Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 0; Last week: -40.0; Change: 40.0; Total mentions: 203. This significant sentiment shift highlights increasing optimism among market participants but continued caution is essential given recent volatility. - Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: 21,200, T2: 21,500. Stop levels: S1: 20,000, S2: 19,700. These targets align with current market sentiment and volatility, providing realistic expectations for short-term price movements. - News Impact: The planned stock listing of Palantir on the NASDAQ is expected to bolster visibility and attract institutional investment, providing a positive catalyst for the index. Continued optimism in the tech and fintech sectors hinges on upcoming earnings and broader economic indicators, which will significantly impact market direction. Keeping abreast of these developments is crucial for making informed trading decisions in the NASDAQ landscape.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the ascending channel, you can look for positions to sell Nasdaq to the 20500 target. Nasdaq buying positions will be after breaking the resistance and maintaining the ascending channel. Following the extended Thanksgiving weekend, financial markets had an opportunity to process a wide array of data and developments. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month boosted the markets, as investors anticipated that his promises to cut taxes and ease regulations would enhance corporate profitability. However, Trump’s proposals to impose tariffs on key trading partners were largely overlooked by stock market traders, although certain sectors, such as the automotive industry, experienced adverse effects. Susannah Streeter, Head of Money Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated, “There is still considerable volatility, and I think this stems from the belief that the potentially damaging impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize.” For equity investors, 2024 has been unexpectedly favorable, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its best annual performances in history. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have risen by more than 20%, while Nvidia’s stock has tripled in value. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) last month dropped to its lowest level in a year and has indicated contraction for nearly two consecutive years. Despite the discouraging outlook it provides for the manufacturing sector, optimism remains regarding future economic activity, especially with the beginning of an easing cycle and the continued reduction in interest rates and borrowing costs. In contrast, the ISM Services Index for October reached 56.0, marking the strongest growth since the summer of 2022 Within this index, the employment component rose by nearly five points to 53.0. Steady consumer demand has been a key driver supporting the services sector. This week, the release of ISM Services PMI data will be closely monitored to determine whether persistent consumer demand and favorable labor market conditions can further stabilize and sustain growth in this sector. Additionally, the impacts of hurricanes Helen and Milton, along with widespread strikes, led to a modest increase of just 12,000 jobs in the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for October. This report was cautiously interpreted as a clear sign of gradual cooling and weakening in the labor market. Beyond the NFP data, other indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings will also be critical. Together, these data points could guide the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential interest rate cut in December. While the labor market remains relatively stable, evident signs of gradual declines in employment and wage growth are becoming increasingly apparent.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
US100: Another Push Higher or a Long-Overdue Pullback?US100: Another Push Higher or a Long-Overdue Pullback? The US100 has recently experienced a strong rally, igniting speculation among traders that a significant retracement is just around the corner. But is it really time for a pullback? Not necessarily. While market corrections are inevitable, the current momentum suggests that the uptrend is far from exhausted—at least until the market says otherwise. Here’s my take: Trend Dynamics The rally across major indices has been fueled by strong sentiment, robust tech sector performance, and resilient economic data. The all-time high now seems within reach, and the market might aim for that psychological level before considering a substantial pullback. Cautious Long Bias I’m keeping a long bias on the US100, as the upward trajectory still looks intact. However, I acknowledge that any signs of weakness or resistance at key levels could quickly shift the narrative. Flexibility is Key While I lean bullish, I remain open to short opportunities if the market shows clear signs of reversal. The key is to stay adaptable and let the price action guide the way. Fundamental Backdrop The bullish case is supported by resilient corporate earnings, cooling inflation, and optimism surrounding the tech-driven economy. However, potential headwinds, like interest rate concerns or geopolitical risks, could trigger sudden volatility. Trade Idea Watching for Longs: I currently don’t have a specific entry point in mind but am closely monitoring price action for buy opportunities. Open to Shorts: If the market begins to show signs of exhaustion at key resistance levels, I won’t hesitate to explore short setups. Flexibility is crucial in these conditions. Perspective, Not a Trade Recommendation This analysis provides a perspective on the US100’s current rally and potential setups—it is not a trade recommendation. Conduct your own analysis and always practice sound risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by CognitiveAlpha
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument Thanksgiving EditionSo this week is the thanksgiving holidays in United States and we have a lot to be grateful for. However the trades never stop... This week will be more of the same...Bullish momentum...HL's to HH's from the largest timeframes. Last week we saw a bit of consolidation in favor of the bulls and I expect that trend to continue... We will get some help this week from the FOMC minutes if the H23 has not signaled a type of High by Wednesday. As you know by now...I do not trade news as the news only creates volatility within market structure and so I only wait for my entry zones and points. With that being said...you can always get a detailed summary by clicking on the link in my profile to see this weeks video. Have a great week. #oneauberstrategy #aubersystem #auberstrategy #whywewait #patience #zigzagtheory
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Auberstrategy
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
NAS100 I Potential pullback and more growth Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** NAS100 Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
BLACKBULL:NAS100Long
by BKTradingAcademy
PATIENCES FOR MY MODELYesterday I published a post of where I was saying lets tape read it and see. Now my model says I can only execute between 10:00 and 11:30 if am to trade the AM session even if there is a sweet setup, I don't engage into price I wait now this feels like you're missing out but this requires much discipline, now I wait for 08:30 even the 09:30 I let that show me honestly you're going to miss moves but be consistent in your model rules, in yesterday's screenshot the little gap wasn't visible because there was a segment i want you to focus on like our dealing range. And when you look on the 08:30 we got a sell stop raid of previous day PM session then at 09:30 we trade into the WEN's gap the there was also an SMT it was a failed lower low showing weakness in bearish market on ES during all this times was observing it watching it, waiting for my model and my draw on liquidity was WEN's high at 20,914.9 . Am going to take you to the time were my model delivered in the next published ides. PD TRADERS
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by pd_traders
NEW IDEA FOR NDXUSD The increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region can lead to a decrease in risk tolerance By examining the trend in the one-hour time frame, the Nasdaq-100 index has hit the resistance of the upper range of the Bollinger Band indicator, and now, due to the geopolitical risk in the region, there is a possibility of risk aversion and the fall of stock indices. In general, this scenario is reinforced that the Nasdaq-100 index, provided it maintains the resistance of 20955, can decrease in price until the lower range of the Bollinger Band indicator in the range of 20739.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by arongroups
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Wednesday 27 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - BUY Morning analysis: D TF - Noted a potential D neckline (which will form if market comes down, marked in neon green line) 4H TF - Noted a potential 4H neckline. If the 7am candle closes below the neckline, then price might be moving down and I would have to be patient and wait for quality confirmations before entering a good buy (marked in orange line) Difficult to identify areas of confluence, but highlighted two green areas: 1. The 4H EMA was roughly in the same area as the pivot point and 4H 0.382 fib level 2. The D 0.50 fib area was roughly in the same area as the D EMA Note: EMAs are marked on the chart where they were at a point in time on Wednesday. They have now moved due to passage of time. As the day progressed: Entered a buy at the hand icon Z. - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF, with neckline (+ pivot) broken upwards with a strong momentum candle 2. S&R - pivot broken upwards 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. The trend is your friend! 4. Fib - DB formed right at the 4H 0.382 fib level, indicating that price is reacting to this level and because neckline is broken up with a strong momentum candle, price is indicating that buyers are stepping in and price is ready to move up. 5. Candlesticks - On the 1H TF, price is managing to close above the 4H 0.382 fib level with wicks sticking out below. Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, which is below the 4H EMA for extra protection, i.e. hoping that price will indeed react to the dynamic support offered by the EMA. Price moved up, luckily more that 250 pips, and I secured at entry (placed actual stop loss at my trade's entry position). This is one of the rules of my system - place SL at entry after 250 pips. And Wednesday reminded me again how important it is to be super disciplined and always stick to your trade rules. I would never have expected Nas to make such a huge and aggressive correction. If I was sloppy with my discipline, I could have lost months and months of hard work building my account. So whatever your trade rules are, this is a reminder to stick with them EVERY TIME, because you created them to protect you and they will save you when you least expect it. Price dropped drastically, I was taken out at entry and then price proceeded to fall through the floor rapidly. I entered an aggressive entry at hand icon X. - Confirmations: Double bottom formed on the 15min TF right at the D EMA + W 0.50 fib level + D 0.618 fib level Price moved up and I closed at the end of the day at the blue arrow, making 637 pips for the day. I closed because I thought Thanksgiving would be slow trading and decided that I would not trade Thursday and Friday because I don't like slow trading. Looking at the charts now, I see trading was anything but slow!! Hope you had a good trading week! :) See you next week for some exciting trading! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84