A Nasdaq Black Hole - Unprecendented yes, Impossible no Before anyone says anything...yes Elliot Waves are completely subjective BUT IMHO i have drawn these correctly....
The NAS made a violent move from 22100 down 16300 in a very short space of time. So what? It will just make another ATH right?
Well, of course. It almost certainly will, the real question is when. If this pattern plays out, it won't be in 2025.
After every impulse on any timeframe, long or short, you'd naturally expect a pullback.
However, not all pullbacks are the same. Usually, the first significant pullback for a corrective wave is no more than 50%.
However, if you have a pullback that is 61.8% or more, it is usually considered an impulsive wave.
What the difference? Corrective waves have3 waves, ultimately trending in one direction, and impulsive waves have 5 waves trending in one direction.
If the Nasdaq falls beneath 20900, with increasing volume, this will signify confirmation to me at least, that we could be starting one of the most violent impulsive bearish waves in the history of financial markets.
NDQ trade ideas
are we going ath? let us now~~indices looks green, so we rally?
no trump tariffs?
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USTECUSTEC price is near the resistance zone 21776-22139. If the price cannot break through the 22139 level, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
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Nasdaq 100 Heading Downwards on the 1-Hour TimeframeConsidering the positive trend on the 1-hour and 2-hour timeframes, and the need for energy to continue the upward movement, along with the fact that the M15 trend was negative, given the pullback in this area, we expect a decline towards the 1-hour low.
Please make sure to maintain a 2% risk of your account balance and do not risk more than that. Always take responsibility for your trades.
Position for a Short-Term Bounce
- Key Insights: The NASDAQ has entered a historically oversold state, presenting
a high-probability opportunity for a short-term rebound. While bearish
signals persist due to recent momentum shifts, long-term institutional
activity indicates underlying support. Traders should look for defensive
buying near support zones to capitalize on upward moves. Critical levels
must be monitored closely for confirmation.
- Price Targets:
- Next Week Targets:
- T1: 21,000
- T2: 21,479
- Stop Levels:
- S1: 20,426
- S2: 20,250
- Recent Performance: The NASDAQ has faced four consecutive days of declines,
breaking below key technical levels that signal bearish pressures. However,
institutional support and broader bullish indicators remain intact, keeping
the index positioned as the strongest major U.S. equity index in the longer
term. Historically oversold conditions provide optimism for a potential
bounce next week.
- Expert Analysis: Despite short-term bearish momentum, expert outlook continues
to align with NASDAQ’s long-term resilience above major moving averages.
Institutional liquidity flow and ongoing interest in technology continue to
support the index, though caution is warranted around immediate support
barriers to avoid deeper pullbacks. Monitoring liquidity gaps is crucial.
- News Impact: NVIDIA earnings are anticipated to be a pivotal event next week
and could drive volatility in NASDAQ tech sectors depending on the outcome.
Elevated volatility levels, as evidenced by the VIX, further warrant caution
while underscoring potential opportunities for rebound plays. Additionally,
NASDAQ’s move to expand zero-day options trading has drawn mixed responses
but could influence short-term speculative activity in its top tech stocks
like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
$NDX And The Expanding WedgeNASDAQ:NDX has a lot going for it and plenty of lifechanging money to be made.
As you can see whether you draw a bear flag that is still valid or a large Triangle (also valid) there is an amazing opportunity for profit.
Firth thing to notice other than this triangle is the weakness creeping in at the retest of weekly resistance above. MA angles are starting to cross down and a clear indication of a false breakout is signaling on the CCI.
Keeping in mind that not only on the Futures charts but also on the indexes we have quite a few long distance gaps left open, most notable at 18,300.
Whichever way this triangle breaks, the move will be massive.
Hang on to your butts..
Moustafa! NASDAQ 16.03 Warren Buffett would wink to me right now- If you want to know the moves of the market whales, you have to think as you are one of them! then you need to think big! and analyse on the large time frames!
- Open the weekly frame then you will notice the biggest rising channel in the history of Nasdaq which started to form on March 2020! then you will find that the index touched already twice its upper and lower line! which validated that channel! inside it you would find other smaller channels! but have a look on when the whales including the great Warren Buffett sold a big portion of his stocks! before it reaches the upper line! for a clear reason!
- I believe that chart is showing everything and the people in charge in this world is setting simply reasons to make it happen! any reasons you could imagine! just to make it work out! for example Trump winning or his created agenda of tariffs and the response back from the attacked countries to set other tariffs in return! a trade war! which no one knows when and how it would end! and how will exactly the consequences be in the medium and long term! but why we would not think that the stocks markets were not planned to crash from the early beginning?! nothing is not planned and they know exactly what they are doing! and what they will and how!
- You remember me creating an idea since two months and predicted that a huge bearish wave would hit this index and us 30 too and could be the biggest one in that index history! no one believed me! but now only all know that I was right! and Here I am, coming again with an idea for a medium and long term time frames predicting the next move and will tell you why!
- I said before that you would find series of red weekly candles and look now, we reached our 4th bearish weekly candles and moreover in a row! and this wave is the 7th fastest bearish waves in Nasdaq history! the 4th candle closed under the moving average 50! imagine that the last week candle closed under the average of the last 50 WEEKS candles! just imagine that!
- Just observe with me, that between September 2022 and January 2023, the price formed a double bottom pattern after a very strong bearish trend, was enough to turn the index completely bullish for a complete 2 years till February 2025! but now between December 2024 and February 2025, the index formed exactly the opposite! a double top pattern also on the weekly chart!
- In trading, there is a simple rule but not many traders know about it! that every long wick MUST and WILL be filled sooner or later! then have a look on the weekly candle lower long massive wick from the week of carry trade of 05.08.2024! remember that week as we will return back to its low! (the TP2) as the massive pull back happened after its settle on the MA50 exactly, then went up non-stop literally in a huge bullish rally leaving behind a wick could fill the space between the sky and the ground! This wick will be filled in this wave!
- Consider please the area I highlighted in yellow in a square! that is an area without any volume and each time recently the price go in that area, would try to return back so fast with a power! that would explain Friday 15.03.2025 massive push up for more than 2% to the upside! as if it would fell down, so no interest from traders in any price that! which means in case it would return back and fall in that area, the index would travel to its end non stop!
- The target of the massive double top pattern is 18330 but my TP1 is before that level! as the index did not reach back to test the high of the weekly candle of 20.05.2024 so there a retrace to the upside would happen! but temporarily! but on the weekly! so it could be looking like a big retrace on lower time frames!
- Let us say that market could open bullish on Monday then any good news would take place or whatever which would lead to a bullish wave! I would say no chance to go further up more than 20845! and the weekly candle would close under that price, as that the neck line of the massive double top pattern on the weekly chart!
- My TP 3 is so critical and the most important support and resistance level, when the index broke that resistance in the week of 15.01.2024 and never tested it back on the weekly chart! so I believe it is the time, that will happen!
- My TP4 is the deepest price we could reach to which is at the MA 200 and another top of the week 31.07.2024 which the index did not test too and it was also a strong resistance level! and by reaching there, would mean reaching to the lower line of the rising channel! or I expect it would reach there when the index reaches in same time the lower rising channel line! but I can guarantee the price but can not expect how long time it would take to reach there!
-
NAS100USD: SMT Divergence Signals Reversal from Discount PricingGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis, we are closely monitoring NAS100USD for a potential reversal of bearish institutional order flow. While the broader trend has been bearish, current price action presents strong confluence for a bullish shift, suggesting an opportunity to align with a possible upside move.
Market Context:
NAS100USD is currently trading in deep discount territory, which historically presents favorable conditions for institutional accumulation. We’ve observed a liquidity sweep—price took out previous sell stops—suggesting institutions may have order-paired against willing sellers at these discounted levels.
Key Observations:
SMT Divergence with S&P500: While the S&P500 took out its previous low, NAS100USD remained above its corresponding low. This divergence signals underlying strength and institutional buying on NAS100USD, offering a strong indication of a reversal.
Bullish Structure Hints: Minor breaks in market structure to the upside are emerging, further validating the bullish narrative.
Institutional Support Zone: Price is currently trading inside a bullish order block that is also aligned with a Fair Value Gap (FVG)—a strong confluence zone that may act as support for continued upside movement.
Trading Strategy:
Await confirmation of support holding within the order block and FVG zone.
Target 1: Relatively equal highs just above current price action—an engineered liquidity pool where buy stops are likely resting.
Target 2: The premium FVG, a key area of institutional interest where longs accumulated at a discount will be offloaded for profit. The area of fair value is an region where the institutions start to book their profits.
By reading the divergence, price action, and institutional behavior, we can strategically position ourselves to capitalize on a high-probability reversal.
Happy Trading,
The Architect 🏛📊
US100 Tests Uptrend: Bearish Signals Emerge❗️ US100 Bearish Alert ❗️
Technical Breakdown Incoming?
📉 The NASDAQ 100 has hit a new local low and is now testing the uptrend line.
🔴 A bearish block order has formed.
📉 RSI signals clear bearish divergence.
📉 MACD confirms momentum is fading for bulls.
🧲 A gap below is acting like a magnet for price action!
🚨 Trade Idea:
🔽 Sell US100 only on a confirmed break below 21070
🎯 TP1: 20745
🎯 TP2: 20188
📊 All indicators point to potential downside – are you prepared?
Going short on the Nasdaq 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Nasdaq 100 has moved up impulsively on a 5-wave move over the past 6 weeks, which is very bullish long term. However, in the short term, it is overextended, with the RSI indicator over the 70 level.
I expect it to decline over the next couple of weeks to the area marked in the green rectangle, between the 50% and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
Nasdaq – Fair Value Gap (FVG) in Play: Breakout or Rejection?US100 is going up and reaching a critical inflection point, the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 21,500 and 21,700.
This FVG is not just any level; it’s the last inefficiency left by aggressive sellers, and the market is now deciding whether to reclaim or reject it.
Key Zones
- Daily FVG (Supply): 21,400 – 21,600
- Major Resistance: 22,400
Trade Scenarios
Bullish Continuation
A clean daily close above 21,600 confirms FVG reclamation.
Could trigger a momentum burst toward 22,250.
Ideal play: wait for consolidation above 21,700 or breakout-retest setup.
Bearish Rejection
Rejection from the FVG could lead to a retracement toward 20,300, where demand and a lower imbalance reside.
Look for rejection in the FVG zone.
Technical Takeaways
The FVG at 21,400–21,600 is acting as both a magnet and a battlefield expect volatility.
The impulsive move leading here lacks a clear retest, which may increase the probability of a short-term correction.
Momentum is strong, but traders should wait for confirmation not emotion.
Summary
The Nasdaq 100 is knocking on a daily FVG door and what happens next will set the tone for the coming weeks.
Above 21,600 = bull trend continuation
Rejection = short-term dip to 20,300 possible
What's your take, breakout or rejection?
Follow for real-time trade updates and educational charts.
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument 36As you all know I am eternally bullish on the NAS100...
What this means is that I trade my Hl's to my HH's.
Whenever there is a a hard retracement like we had over the past month, that is the time I either do the following
1. Wait or it to be over
2. Trade smaller positions to a HL (since the monthly needed the HL)
3. Or just keep testing new retracement theories so that I an expand my overall strategy.
What we have seen is that since Monday April 7, we got a confirmation for the Monthly HL and sine then the market has been working itself back to another ATH.
It is just a matter of patience and understanding that the market will always go back and break every single high that has been created as it continues to be eternally bullish.
Understanding this concept ensures 100% success as long as proper risk management is followed and an understanding that any sells in the market are only temporary retracements towards the HL on a larger timeframe.
With that being said...
All elements of the Auberstrategy remain in tact and working efficiently...
Happy Trading
#auberstrategy
#aubersystem
#zigzagtheory
#whywewait
Nas Short with SMC and Pinex Capital📝 Short scalp with SMC zone - trade idea
In this setup, a quick short scalp was realised based on a prominent SMC supply zone. After an impulsive sell-off, the price returned to an unmitigated supply zone, indicating a possible reaction of institutional orders.
As soon as the price entered the zone and showed signs of weakness (e.g. wicks, smaller candles, BOS at lower TF), the entry was made. The stop loss was set just above the zone, the target was at the next liquidity accumulation or the last break-of-structure low.
pinexcapital.com