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NI225 trade ideas

Nikkei to continue in the downward move?JP225USD - 24h expiry Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The primary trend remains bearish. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 37650 level. We look to Sell at 37650 (stop at 38290) Our profit targets will be 36000 and 34390 Resistance: 36790 / 38275 / 40675 Support: 35590 / 34390 / 32680 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by OANDA
#043 Trust The Process JP225USD Buy 1112SGT 04032025Made some adjustments. Instead of going for 1.5R SL to 1R TP, now I am going for 1.5R SL to 2R loss. Reason, I did an egg count and realised that more often than not, price that went in my favour in my opposite is true account overshot to 2R or more. So, I am leaving alot on the table. I am currently sitting on +1.5R profits(closed) over 20 trades in my opposite is true account. I am thinking to myself, if I were to take 2R instead of 1R, with my existing winrate of 8 losses and 12 wins 60%. I would have an additional 12R isn't it? I'm not sure, but I'm thinking that it should be as so. If my winrate is the same at 12 wins over 8 losses, cos I am just adding the additional R to my wins. Not sure. 1108SGT 04032025
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by goh8888lester
Nikki to enter bear market? wheres the bottom? 16,260? Fib 61.8 Bearish scenario - selling at the top - using TA - Fib based projection suggests a danger zone possible top around 40k specifically 40,379 - Overlaying the 2008-10 bear price structure coincidences with BAGL (bottom ascending grind lines) trend lines which could act as support. - Assuming this is major bear, from the top 50% or 61.8% fib retracement is appropriate and looking where the fib touches the BAGLs tells you where the bottom is in time. It suggests Summer 2026 following historical precedent we know bear markets are fast 18 months to 2 years are typical for corrections and fits to the KLOS too - There are no bears left - Retail is on record levels of margin - the 18.6 housing cycle is about to roll over - Trump put on tariffs - There is trillions of debt that needs to be rolled over we are out of control - Carry trade unwind leads to 3-4 T that will have to be written off as bad loans guys will keep this in Cayman islands and retire - US debt is being bought up by Cayman island accounts - no money left - China and oil countries are not buying US treasuries - All world indices divided by Gold are in down trend, topped out previously so if Gold is real money then we are already in a world wide bear market - The advances and decliners lines have broken BAGLs just like they did in the start of the last bear markets - The Nifty fifty Indian market is leading us down so is Malaysia & Turkey - NVDA looks weak as 14% of Nasdaq is it a canary ? - The old drivers of the bull become the bear targets? - USDJPY at KLOS going back 20 yr chart could be the breakdown signal - Trump wants weaker dollar to make USA great again for manufacturing This is quick look - you need to calculate out the exact bottom with care and accuracy as time moves closer
TRADU:JPN225Short
by William_Playfair
ShortI opened a short position this morning for the following reasons:  Weekly: 1) The price closed below 38,113 (key support area) with a large bearish engulfing candle. 2) The candle closed below EMA 21. 3) MACD is still in the bull zone, but the lines have crossed and clearly pointing to the downside. Daily:  1) The price broke below the ascending parallel channel. 2) MACD has been showing negative divergence for a while. 3) The price is clearly below 39,000 which has been working as major support/resistance in the daily chart. My overall bias for Japan 225 is bearish and I can see the price can move to 33,000.   However, my first trade set up is as below: Entry:  38,170S/L: 38,965Target 1: 37,145 Risk:Reward: 1:1.35 It would have been better to enter when the 1H candle closed below EMA 21 on Friday but i was asleep.   I am hoping 38,300 area works as strong enough resistance to keep the price down. 
PEPPERSTONE:JPN225Short
by EbonyFalcon
Nikkei forming a bottom?NIK225 - 24h expiry Daily signals for sentiment are at oversold extremes. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. We look to Buy at 38080 (stop at 37643) Our profit targets will be 39330 and 39660 Resistance: 39660 / 40720 / 42155 Support: 37705 / 36330 / 34955 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
JPN225 at Major Support Level – Bullish Rebound ExpectedPEPPERSTONE:JPN225 reached a significant demand zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong buying pressure. This area has historically acted as a key support zone, indicating the potential for a pullback if buyers regain control. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this demand zone, there is a high likelihood of an upward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head higher toward the 39,068 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
ICMARKETS:JP225Long
by DanieIM
1
Short I opened a short position today based on the 4H chart and daily chart price set up.    My reasonings are as follows:  Japan225 has been in the range bound since Sept 2024.  The price peaked at 42,420 area and sharply dropped to 30,480 on the 5th August 2024.  The price started to recovered to 39,150 area on the 30th August 2024.  Since then, that level is working almost like a magnet and the price has been moving between 37,500 and 40,400 for months and months. However, MACD has been very slowly forming negative divergence.  Therefore, although the price is consolidating sideways, my bias for trade is more towards shorting, and I could see a good set up unfolding this morning. Currently the daily candle is sitting right on the major support/resistance line.   But when you look at 4H chart and 1H chart, the price has formed the double top, dropped below the major support/resistance line, rested and is now moving to the downside.   All 4H momentum indicators are in agreement and moving to the downside. (They are still in the bull territory so the downside move might be limited).   1H MACD and RSI have formed clear negative divergence and now entering to the bear zone.   Entry - 39,191 Stop Loss - 39,508 Targtet 1 - 38,820 (the previous week's mid price) Target 2- 38,550 (Fib 0.786 area in 1H chart) The price action of Japan225 has been really choppy and messy, so it might not be an ideal asset to trade at the moment. I day trade Japan225 every morning using 1min chart, so I am familiar with this asset, but probably there are easier ones to trade. I just wanted to share my trade idea.
PEPPERSTONE:JPN225Short
by EbonyFalcon
3
NIKKEI FULL TRADE-ABLE SETUPSBelow are Dual-Scenario Trade Setups for three trader types—Short-Term, Swing, and Macro—based on the previously completed top-down technical analysis. Each category includes a Primary (Bias-Aligned) setup reflecting the overall bullish consolidation bias, plus an Alternate (Contrary) setup in case price breaks key levels and invalidates the primary scenario. 1. Short-Term Trader (Intraday to Multi-Day) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Aligns with the broader uptrend and the ongoing range support near 38,900–39,000 on lower timeframes. Looks for a short-term rally if price reclaims local resistance. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Await a 1H candle close above ~39,300 (near local lower-high pivot). • Look for an uptick in volume or a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart confirming momentum. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 39,000, just below the bullish order block / recent intraday support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~39,500 (immediate overhead supply). • TP2: ~39,700–39,800 (previous swing highs). • Risk Management: • Position size to risk 1–2% of trading capital, with an approximate 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio depending on final entry fill. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Activates if the support region (38,900–39,000) fails, flipping short-term bias to downside momentum. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Break and 1H close below 38,900, confirming invalidation of the bullish order block. • Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 becomes a secondary entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Just above 39,100 to cover a potential reclaim attempt. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~38,600 (recent minor support). • TP2: ~38,200 or deeper if intraday selling accelerates. • Risk Management: • Adjust position size for volatility around a breakdown; aim for a 1:2 R:R or better. 2. Swing Trader (Multi-Week) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Builds on the daily chart’s bullish structure near 38k support, looking for a potential run toward the 40k–41k resistance region. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Daily close above ~39,500 with sustained volume, suggesting an attempt at the next resistance band (40k+). • Bullish crossover on daily MACD or RSI crossing above ~55 can reinforce the entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Beneath 38,500 on a daily closing basis, below the recent consolidation floor to allow for volatility. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~40,000–40,200 (major daily supply zone). • TP2: ~41,000 (upper band of daily range). • Risk Management: • Aim for a moderate position size, seeking a 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trailing stops thereafter. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Triggered if daily price closes convincingly under 38k support, negating the bullish mid-range bias and opening downside toward deeper weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Daily close below ~38,000, plus follow-through selling on the next session. • This invalidates the bullish structure, suggesting a larger correction could unfold. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above 38,800 on a daily closing basis, covering a possible reclaim of the broken support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~37,000 (prior daily pivot and potential institutional demand). • TP2: ~36,000 or lower if the weekly chart’s deeper support is tested. • Risk Management: • Use swing-sized position. Target a 1:2 R:R minimum, reducing or trailing stops near key fib or structural supports. 3. Macro Trader (Multi-Month to Longer-Term) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Leverages the long-term uptrend visible on the weekly chart, anticipating that consolidation near ~38k–39k eventually resolves to the upside toward prior highs (~42k). • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Weekly close above 40k, demonstrating a clear breakout from the consolidation range. • Confirmation via weekly momentum indicators turning bullish (e.g., weekly MACD crossing positive). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 36k on a weekly closing basis, below major prior structure and the 100/200-week MAs. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~42,000–43,000 (historic weekly resistance). • TP2: Potential extension beyond 45k if the bull trend accelerates. • Risk Management: • Lower leverage or a smaller position. Potentially add on retests of the breakout zone. Seek a 1:3 or better R:R over a longer horizon. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Engaged if price fails at the top of the range and breaks down significantly below the multi-year trendline or major weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Weekly close below 35,500–36,000, confirming the breakdown of the bullish structure from a macro standpoint. • Negative slope on weekly MAs or a strongly negative MACD cross might reinforce the short bias. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above ~37,500 on a weekly closing basis, allowing some volatility above the broken support region. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~32,000–33,000 (major prior pivot / weekly volume node). • TP2: ~30,000 or lower if a full cyclical retrace unfolds. • Risk Management: • Employ conservative position sizing given the longer timescale. Aim for a balanced risk-reward approach, partial profit around TP1, and trailing stop for the remainder. Summary of the Dual-Scenario Approach • Primary Setups in each category lean bullish, reflecting the broader uptrend and stable support around 38k–39k. • Alternate (Contrary) Setups engage only if key supports break or resistance strongly rejects price, confirming a structural shift. This dual approach covers both sides of the market, ensuring readiness for continued consolidation/breakout to the upside or a sudden downside invalidation of the current range.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
NIKKEI FULL-TRADEABLE SETUPS 1. Short-Term Trader (Intraday to Multi-Day) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Aligns with the broader uptrend and the ongoing range support near 38,900–39,000 on lower timeframes. Looks for a short-term rally if price reclaims local resistance. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Await a 1H candle close above ~39,300 (near local lower-high pivot). • Look for an uptick in volume or a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart confirming momentum. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 39,000, just below the bullish order block / recent intraday support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~39,500 (immediate overhead supply). • TP2: ~39,700–39,800 (previous swing highs). • Risk Management: • Position size to risk 1–2% of trading capital, with an approximate 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio depending on final entry fill. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Activates if the support region (38,900–39,000) fails, flipping short-term bias to downside momentum. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Break and 1H close below 38,900, confirming invalidation of the bullish order block. • Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 becomes a secondary entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Just above 39,100 to cover a potential reclaim attempt. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~38,600 (recent minor support). • TP2: ~38,200 or deeper if intraday selling accelerates. • Risk Management: • Adjust position size for volatility around a breakdown; aim for a 1:2 R:R or better. 2. Swing Trader (Multi-Week) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Builds on the daily chart’s bullish structure near 38k support, looking for a potential run toward the 40k–41k resistance region. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Daily close above ~39,500 with sustained volume, suggesting an attempt at the next resistance band (40k+). • Bullish crossover on daily MACD or RSI crossing above ~55 can reinforce the entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Beneath 38,500 on a daily closing basis, below the recent consolidation floor to allow for volatility. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~40,000–40,200 (major daily supply zone). • TP2: ~41,000 (upper band of daily range). • Risk Management: • Aim for a moderate position size, seeking a 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trailing stops thereafter. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Triggered if daily price closes convincingly under 38k support, negating the bullish mid-range bias and opening downside toward deeper weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Daily close below ~38,000, plus follow-through selling on the next session. • This invalidates the bullish structure, suggesting a larger correction could unfold. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above 38,800 on a daily closing basis, covering a possible reclaim of the broken support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~37,000 (prior daily pivot and potential institutional demand). • TP2: ~36,000 or lower if the weekly chart’s deeper support is tested. • Risk Management: • Use swing-sized position. Target a 1:2 R:R minimum, reducing or trailing stops near key fib or structural supports. 3. Macro Trader (Multi-Month to Longer-Term) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Leverages the long-term uptrend visible on the weekly chart, anticipating that consolidation near ~38k–39k eventually resolves to the upside toward prior highs (~42k). • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Weekly close above 40k, demonstrating a clear breakout from the consolidation range. • Confirmation via weekly momentum indicators turning bullish (e.g., weekly MACD crossing positive). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 36k on a weekly closing basis, below major prior structure and the 100/200-week MAs. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~42,000–43,000 (historic weekly resistance). • TP2: Potential extension beyond 45k if the bull trend accelerates. • Risk Management: • Lower leverage or a smaller position. Potentially add on retests of the breakout zone. Seek a 1:3 or better R:R over a longer horizon. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Engaged if price fails at the top of the range and breaks down significantly below the multi-year trendline or major weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Weekly close below 35,500–36,000, confirming the breakdown of the bullish structure from a macro standpoint. • Negative slope on weekly MAs or a strongly negative MACD cross might reinforce the short bias. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above ~37,500 on a weekly closing basis, allowing some volatility above the broken support region. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~32,000–33,000 (major prior pivot / weekly volume node). • TP2: ~30,000 or lower if a full cyclical retrace unfolds. • Risk Management: • Employ conservative position sizing given the longer timescale. Aim for a balanced risk-reward approach, partial profit around TP1, and trailing stop for the remainder. Summary of the Dual-Scenario Approach • Primary Setups in each category lean bullish, reflecting the broader uptrend and stable support around 38k–39k. • Alternate (Contrary) Setups engage only if key supports break or resistance strongly rejects price, confirming a structural shift. This dual approach covers both sides of the market, ensuring readiness for continued consolidation/breakout to the upside or a sudden downside invalidation of the current range.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
NIKKEI SWING SET UPS ## SWING-TRADING (MULTI-WEEK) NIKKEI SETUP ### Overall Context - **Market Sentiment & Positioning**: Institutional flows remain cautiously optimistic, with elevated hedging but steady inflows into key equity segments. The broader late-cycle expansion continues, while inflation shows signs of moderating. - **Monetary Policy & Macro Factors**: Central banks globally are shifting toward accommodative policies, generally supporting equities. However, pockets of economic slowdown or negative surprises in data releases can quickly alter sentiment. - **Technical Structure**: On the daily timeframe, the Nikkei has been building a bullish structure near the 38k zone, suggesting that dips into this area are often bought. Price attempts to push toward the 40k–41k region align with prior swing highs, forming a natural upside target for swing traders. --- ### A. PRIMARY (BULLISH) SWING SETUP 1. **Rationale** - Seeks to capitalize on the Nikkei’s ongoing daily uptrend, with price consolidating above 38k. - The daily momentum indicators and supportive macro environment suggest that further upside is possible if the index breaks its near-term resistance. 2. **Execution Parameters** - **Entry Trigger**: - Look for a daily close above ~39,500 on strong volume, indicating a renewed push toward the 40k region. - A bullish crossover in technical indicators (e.g., MACD, RSI above ~55) can provide additional confirmation. - **Stop-Loss Placement**: - Below ~38,500 on a daily closing basis, allowing room for typical market volatility while protecting against a deeper breakdown. - **Take-Profit Levels**: 1. **First Target**: Approximately 40,000–40,200, a significant daily resistance zone and psychological round number. 2. **Second Target**: Around 41,000, aligning with higher-end resistance if bullish momentum persists. - **Risk Management**: - Maintain a 1–2% account risk per trade. Position sizing should factor in the distance to your stop. - Upon reaching the first target, consider partial profit-taking and moving the stop-loss to break-even. 3. **Supporting Factors** - **Institutional Flows**: Large funds often continue buying dips in a stable macro environment, providing a cushion under prices. - **Liquidity & Rates**: The supportive, lower-rate backdrop can encourage investors to hold equities longer, favoring sustained uptrends. --- ### B. ALTERNATE (BEARISH) SWING SETUP 1. **Rationale** - Becomes actionable if the daily close undercuts ~38,000, suggesting the potential for a more pronounced corrective phase. - Negative macro catalysts or a notable shift in risk sentiment could accelerate selling and undermine the current range-bound bullish bias. 2. **Execution Parameters** - **Entry Trigger**: - A daily close below ~38,000, followed by a second day of downside confirmation or inability to regain that level. - **Stop-Loss Placement**: - Above ~38,800 on a daily closing basis, invalidating the bearish scenario if price reclaims the broken support. - **Take-Profit Levels**: 1. **First Target**: Near 37,000, which historically has acted as a pivot/demand area on the daily chart. 2. **Second Target**: Around 36,000, if downside momentum accelerates. - **Risk Management**: - Maintain a 1–2% risk allocation. - Consider partial profit at the first target and tighten stops if the market heads lower in a sustained fashion. 3. **Supporting Factors** - **Macro & Policy Shifts**: A sudden spike in inflation, unexpected central bank hawkishness, or severe economic data misses can quickly unwind bullish positions. - **Institutional Hedging Unwind**: If selling pressure builds, existing hedges may intensify the move lower as positions are adjusted or closed out. --- ## KEY RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES - **Data & Catalysts**: Swing traders should be mindful of earnings seasons, central bank announcements, and major geopolitical developments that can cause multi-day moves or gaps. - **Trend Confirmation & Timely Exits**: Use daily closes (as opposed to intraday fluctuations) to confirm breakouts or breakdowns. Partial profit-taking at predefined levels and trailing stops on the remaining position help lock in gains while allowing participation in extended runs. - **Sizing & Leverage**: With multi-day to multi-week holding periods, ensure that margin usage and stop placements accommodate overnight and weekend risk. --- ### CONCLUSION For swing traders in the Nikkei, the **primary** approach aims to ride the prevailing daily uptrend toward the 40k–41k region, while the **alternate** scenario provides a structured plan if price breaks below ~38,000, indicating a deeper pullback. By integrating broader institutional positioning and macroeconomic indicators into a technical framework, traders can position themselves for potential multi-week opportunities while maintaining a disciplined risk posture.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
NIKKEI SHORT TERM SET UPS SHORT-TERM (INTRADAY TO MULTI-DAY) NIKKEI SETUP Overall Context Institutional & Derivatives Backdrop: The broader market environment remains cautiously bullish, supported by stable liquidity and a net long gamma bias among dealers. This typically helps dampen extreme volatility and allows for orderly trend development. Macro Influences: The global economy sits in a late-cycle expansion phase, with moderating growth but still supportive monetary policies. Headline inflation is easing from prior peaks, and major central banks are leaning toward rate cuts, collectively creating a generally favorable backdrop for equities. Technical Structure: On lower timeframes, the Nikkei has established a significant support zone around 38,900–39,000. This zone has consistently attracted buyers, indicating that the short-term bullish case remains intact unless price decisively breaks below it. A. PRIMARY (BULLISH) SHORT-TERM SETUP Rationale Capitalizes on the bullish consolidation above 38,900–39,000, where price tends to bounce and maintain its uptrend on 1H/4H charts. With institutional flows still leaning risk-on, a break back above local resistance could trigger fresh buying interest. Execution Parameters Entry Trigger: Wait for a 1H candle close above approximately 39,300 (the local lower-high pivot). Look for a confirming signal such as a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart or an uptick in volume to validate momentum. Stop-Loss Placement: Beneath 39,000, just below the short-term bullish order block and the primary intraday support zone. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 39,500, a nearby overhead supply area where price has previously reacted. Second Target: Around 39,700–39,800, aligning with recent swing highs. Risk Management: Keep risk per trade to about 1–2% of total trading capital. Once price reaches the first target, consider partial profit-taking and moving the stop to break-even to protect gains. Supporting Factors A generally bullish sentiment across major equity indices, fueled by easing global monetary conditions and stable liquidity. The presence of robust institutional accumulation zones that tend to absorb selling around key supports. B. ALTERNATE (BEARISH) SHORT-TERM SETUP Rationale Activated if the short-term support at 38,900–39,000 fails to hold. A decisive break below this level may signal that short-term momentum is shifting negative, possibly driven by unexpected macro data or profit-taking. Execution Parameters Entry Trigger: A clear 1H close below 38,900, confirming breakdown of the bullish order block. Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 further strengthens the short setup. Stop-Loss Placement: Above 39,100, allowing some buffer for a potential false breakdown. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 38,600, a minor support that could provide a short-term bounce or partial profit zone. Second Target: Approximately 38,200 if selling pressure accelerates and the market continues to slide. Risk Management: Maintain a 1–2% risk limit. Consider partial profit-taking at the first target and use a trailing stop on any remaining position in case of further downside. Supporting Factors Institutional hedging through puts or a sudden shift in risk appetite can amplify downside moves once a key support is lost. Macro catalysts (e.g., negative economic surprises, renewed geopolitical tensions) could quickly erode bullish sentiment. KEY RISK & TRADE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS Event Catalysts: Keep track of economic releases and central bank announcements, as unexpected news can drive significant intraday volatility. Liquidity & Volatility: Even though overall liquidity is robust, short-term spikes in volatility can create price gaps. Adjust position size and stops accordingly. Partial Exits & Trailing Stops: Reduce risk once initial targets are hit. Securing gains while leaving room for extended moves can be an effective way to balance profit potential and capital preservation. CONCLUSION For short-term traders focusing on the Nikkei, the primary strategy leverages ongoing bullish momentum off the 38,900–39,000 support zone. The alternate strategy provides a clear roadmap should price break below this critical level, indicating a short-term trend reversal or corrective move. By integrating disciplined entries, well-placed stops, and prudent risk management, traders can navigate intraday to multi-day swings in the Nikkei efficiently.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Nikkei 225 (J225) Bearish Reversal | 1W TimeframeJ225 (Nikkei 225) is showing multiple rejections near the 40,741 resistance level, indicating a possible downtrend formation. The price is currently testing the 38,333 support, and a breakdown here could lead to a significant bearish move. 🔹 Resistance: 40,741 (Rejection Zone) 🔹 Bearish Confirmation: Break below 38,333 🔹 Key Targets: 36,702 → 35,306 → 33,828 → 30,401 If this setup plays out, a lower high, lower low structure could be in motion, pushing J225 lower in the coming weeks. However, this is not financial advice—just an educational market analysis. Manage risk and always do your own research before making any trades! 🚨
CAPITALCOM:J225Short
by TheSuperDoper