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NYA trade ideas

USA/GOLD: the truth about $SPX-Why is the SPX a lie? For starters it weights the 500 most desirable companies and, to continue, its unit of reference is the dollar... an "unbacked" currency (as crypto fanatics say with some reason... people so blinded by their infatuation that from a half-truth they are capable of elaborating truths of a ton or even more). -Ok, and what do you want to invent, wifi rebel? There is no need to invent anything, luckily: besides the marketer SPX there is also the NYA that considers more than 2000 NYSE companies... and I believe NYA more than SPX, to make a long story short. And the dollar, although it is backed by much more than ink and paper (because behind this bill is the most powerful economy on the planet and not Argentina or Venezuela), anyway it has a lot of lies and the CPI (US Consumer Price Index) proves it every day. -And what about that? And with that it seems clear to me that we should not pay so much attention to the SPX or the dollar... especially having the NYA and gold to get a historical ratio that reflects the ups and downs in the romance between Mr. Gold and Mr. Stock Market (let's be inclusive). -And why don't you put CPI into this ratio? Well, I don't think it's necessary inasmuch as both constituents are equally affected by the depreciation of the greenish paper... so the ratio itself gives us ecumenical information on the binomial. Amen. ********************************************************************************************************** Well, let's get more serious: What we get concretely from looking at this ratio is HOW MANY GOLDEN CONTRACTS THE NYA CAN PAY OUT OVER TIME. It's that simple and that far-reaching... because if we're going to bother with "FIAT money blablabla", well then let's measure the US market in GOLD and stop whining pseudo-arguments. Does it make sense or not? I say yes... Now let's break it down: 1) the trend line below is impressive: it has three millimeter contact points... so precise that, somehow, they are backing up all the chatter I wrote above: the truth of the USA MKT is in GOLD and not USD; 2) seen this way bubbles and crises don't match sooooo much with the orthodox look in USD; 3) the "real SPX" is still bullish in very long term ... but since 2000 and the .com explosion it is still in bearish mode ... Yes: 20 years losing against gold, it's that simple .... 4) however we also see a very clear triangle figure... that was overcome to pull back to a millimeter throwback against that important TL... and now what we have is a very interesting resistance at 9.60 (NYA is paying 8.76 gold contracts and if it reaches to pay more than 9.60, "it blows up" a timberman would say). *********************************************************************************************************** Conclusion: I actually think all these arguments make sense, rationally speaking, and what I see here is very reassuring to me about "the current bubble" that has been talked about for a long time. Why? Because that bubble is measured in the "lie" of the dollar... so it is worth as much as a lie (i.e. nothing), and on the other hand in gold we have a symmetrical triangle of upward continuation that is about to be executed... with targets so astronomical that not even the most smokeseller "twistar" would dare to handle it. Think about it...
TVC:NYALong
by GusNord
Incoming Gann tsunami waveFrom an eagle-eye perspective, this is the most suitable wave structure and EW count I can see now. It lines up perfectly with W.D. Gann's astrological predictions, the economy (entering recession) and the current social sentiment (nearing end of mania). I believe bears were correct in saying that the March 2020 peak was the *true* end of the 13 year bull market. We since entered a delusionary expanded flat 'B' wave which was severely augmented and prolonged by extreme central bank and government intervention. The tsunami (wipeout) 'C' of (A) wave down should be arriving next. What I depict here is only the first of five waves down. I could be wrong yet again, but best of luck to all of you, whether you believe me or not.
TVC:NYAShort
by supere
1
Bearish Head-and-Shoulders on NYSE CompTextbook example of a head-and-shoulders pattern. We have a strong bullish uptrend to reverse, which has been in place since March. The neckline is well defined and connects with the very important June 8th "internal top" for the markets. After June 8th, we began to see big declines in market breadth, which accelerated in August. The neckline also served as resistance during today's rally. This confirms our bearish outlook overall for stocks.
TVC:NYAShort
by DohmenCapitalResearch
Another Taffer in the Shadows?This is the NEW YORK COMPOSITE INDEX. Please see my previous post just a couple of weeks ago about this drop and what to expect from here. Based on all the data I can muster to analyze, the correction is not over. It's possible that we rally and/or drift sideways into the election but this looks very concerning to me.. I keep hearing from too many people that the Fed has their back. They believe the Fed will hold their hand to victory into an eternal upward rally. I am not one to dismiss the melt-up scenario and hyper-inflationary end game, but this is what I see right now.. I see the potential for another drop. The bigger question- what happens after this drop? Do we have a 08-like melt-down or is that just another dip to buy in this bull run? We'll take it as it comes. Please be smart, patient, and immune to public sentiment. Think for yourself but study, study, study!
TVC:NYA
by gghsusa