NZ10Y GOV BONDA RATES - HEADING LOWER We are looking at the WEEKLY chart of Kiwi Bond rates. As you can see we had a false break out @ 1.8030 rates have since struggled to get above this level, with strong bearish momentum now, with both the 20MA and the Oscillator showing strong bearish movement, we look to head lower towards the 1.0050 level.
Updates to be posted
NZ10Y trade ideas
NZDUSD carry trade shrinksAs the US 10 year yields rise - they impact more than just the price of stocks. The Carry trade or difference between a funding currency and investment currency is also impacted.
While both New Zealand and the US ten year rates are rising, the difference between New Zealand 10 Year Yields and US 10 Year rates is diminishing. This makes the NZDUSD carry trade less appealing, for this reason the currency falls. The stronger the gap between the two yields, as we saw in earlier March, the higher the Kiwi climbs. At the moment the Kiwi is well below recent price action. Recent Q4 GDP showing that the economy showing was not as growing as expected has also added to the NZDUSD woes.
NZ10Y @ 1% - Kiwi @ 0.722The NZ yields are sitting above a psychological level of 1% and have been flirting with this level for a couple of weeks. This is undoubtedly driving demand for the commodity currency, which has now hit 0.722 along with the general risk on mood that is pervading markets at year end. As we go into the European trading session of the year, the big question is will the risk on mood continue and the kiwi push higher? Or will traders see this new high as a profit taking opportunity?
Forget the Rugby - NZ kicking goals in trans tasman yield-offNZ 10 Year yields have been soaring thanks to a more hawkish RBNZ which held rates at 0.25% when Australia lowered theirs to 0.10%. Talks of negative rates by Orr and other Bank members have dwindled. The impact is that NZ yields continue to climb and likely reach 1% before it's neighbours.
ridethepig | Replacing the defence in NZ YieldsComparing NZ 10Y Yield with AU 10Y Yield we can see the divergence opening up. The local stories in NZ are looking a lot worse than in Australia for now, depriving the NZ 10Y Yield of completing the base formation.
On the currency side, the strategic link between AUD and NZD is being threatened by AUD breaking up and flirting to complete the leg towards 1.12 - something we have been tracking since June:
On the technical flows, the NZ10Y can sweep 0.5% comfortably, where it would be then able to replace the current defence with a more solid structure for a move back towards 1.0%. Thus the 🔑 to answering direction for NZ10Y comes only with more time elapsing.