Top40: aiming for 48500?Upside price momentum is busy fading away.
Testing its 200-day simple moving average.
A break below the 200-day will set the long-term trend to bearish.
SA40 trade ideas
JSE:J200 Top 40 Institutional SellingLooking at a weekly chart it seems that we are in distribution that has started in 2015. We now see volume off the tops of the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). There are Signs of Weakness (SoW) and change of character in the background. I break below the yearly pivot point which should be tested this week could result in significant declines.
7 Nov 2019 - JSE ALSI 40 - Long - W Formation FEEL PRIDEThere are many aspects to celebrate the JSE rising...
Technically we have a breakout above the W-formation, break up above the downtrend for the first time since may and end of the year buying before year-end.
Fundamentally we have a couple of reasons to feel pride:
1. JSE Is tightening with the regulations with the listing requirements
2. Leila Fourie stepped in as CEO in early October which has sent the JSE flying over 8%
3. We dodged the junk status by Moodys (Baaa3)
4. US and China seem to be entering a compromise part of the relationship with cutting down on tarriffs and offering 20-40-50bn worth of farm goods.
5. We won the Rugby WOrld Cup (32:12)
6. #ImStaying grew to over 860,000 members
Anyways, the charts are what makes us take the trade - everything else is just fun confirmation.
TOP40 October was a great month, but....October proved to be a good month, but we are getting close to overhead resistance. Need to keep our eyes on the ball this November & December. Maybe time to lock in "some" profit into strength and consolidate as we anticipate the next set up. Protect you trading commodity (money) always the first priority. This does not mean we can't go higher, just that I anticipate the risk reward to become less as we move closer to overhead resistance.
J200 - Weekly Chart channelsThe weekly J200 top 40 index chart is still trading in a shorter term down trend channel that began during may 2019 up until now.
However the bigger uptrend is still intact from the lows of October 2018 And I would suspect that if we get a strong weekly close above 51500 it should open up room to move to 53200
SA40 SouthAfrica Top 40Index and LBLS indicatorSA40 looks to be bullish as per the LBLS longbuylongsell indicator.
The candle is blue and it has good strength .
As per the LongBuyLongSellIndicator Script this looks to be more positive.
Here is the script i have used for my analysis,try it out
JSE TOP40 Looking like it want to go pacesSome wild daily swings on the TOP 40 in the last couple of days. Longer term however it looks like it building some bullish formations that cannot be ignored. Inverted head and shoulders and now what looks like a bull flag. Let's see where this one is headed.
JSE:J200 Top 40 a Turn for the WorstThe Top 40 has previously found support at the yearly pivot point. After a rally, there has been a rejection of the 200Day MA. Volume is decreasing on rallies and increasing on declines indicating the selling pressure. It does not seem that the 200Day MA will hold again.
#JSETOP40 TOP40 Neckline test on a head and shouldersBigger picture is a neckline test on the TOP40. If this level hold, more upside to follow. If it fails, it could be followed by a quick selloff as longs scramble to get out.
#ALSI Possible inverted head and shoulders building Possible inverted head and shoulders building on the All Share Index. Could take some time to resolve the neckline however. A break could take us to the top of this multi year channel.
JSE Top 40 Index (Spot)JSE Top 40 Index (Spot): The index has advanced strongly from our last buy/long call on 03-October at 48232. While we saw the index dip slightly lowers, spending a day or two below the recommended buy zone, the 'swing' higher eventually unfolded with a very strong move higher throughout the course of last week. At current levels, the candle structure remains strong although I am less enthusiastic to call a buy/long at current levels that I was 11 days ago. Which levels to watch? I see 49700 as a resistance zone with the 200-day MA at 49832 just above that. Following that 50066 may also act a a short term cap. Fresh longs, I would wait for the price to pull back to 48650 for a new short term entry. The RSI has recently crossed over into bullish territory and now trades at 52 while turning up.
TOP40 - Some support around the 47 540 areaLooking good for a bounce after managing to hold some minor support.
$J200 JSE TOP40 observationThe Top40's Price action has been anchored between the main Pivot Point (48 400) and Resistance line 1 (53 000) since early February. (200 week ma = 48193). Besides for the month of January the rest of the year's price action has taken place inside this range. Watch for a second consecutive weekly close below the pivot point level @ 48400. A close below last weeks candle low @ 48000 is even more important. Should we see either/both of these levels breached on an end of week closing basis, it will signal a shift in market direction firmly into the hands of the bears moving into year end. If you then project the range of the pivot action (53 000 - 48400), a break below 48000 can see us move to a projected target of 43800.
Still early days but important to keep a close eye as the market is at a critical juncture here...
J200 - TOP40 JSE:J200
On Wednesday J200 closed below big rectangular consolidation and yesterday confirmed with another close.
Looks like more down side coming.
SA40 SUPPORT / CORRELATION WITH S&P500SA40 IS HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH S&P500. NOW IS IN CRITICAL SUPPORT POINT.
MOST LIKELY TO BUY ABOVE 03 OCT HIGH.
Buy JSE Top 40 IndexTrading Plan:
Buy JSE Top 40 Spot Index at current level (48232) or better
Use a stop-loss of 47970 to protect capital
Take profit at or near 48750
Published for clients at 11:15am, 02 October 2019
TOP40 - Middle GroundWe may derive the following from the Weekly J200 chart:
1. Price has found support at a long term demand zone.
2. We will need to wait and see what price does - giving us a short continuation trade or long initiation.
3. Monitor price action and be patient.
4. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
j200- SA40 has held crucial support of 48800J200-SA40 found critical support off yesterdays lows off the 48800 level. a close below this area will be quite bearish.
overall we are still trading in a much wider down trend channel from may 2019.
J200 top40 testing held support at 50,000ALSI/j200 top40 index has held its support at 50,000 off yesterday Low of day.
It is within a rising up channel and I do expect prices to continue to rise.
JSE Top 40 Index (Spot) The JSE Top 40 spot index has advanced strongly since developing a bottom in late August. Off the lows of 47618, the index has appreciated by 3527 points or 7.4%. At current levels, the price trades at prior support of 51336 and is nearing the prior breakdown level of 51546 which took place on 30 July. While it is possible that these level could be breached, it would also be natural to expect some consolidation following the strong recent move higher and while there is no clear short/sell signal at present, traders who took a long from the late August lows may want to partially reduce their long positions. I will be monitoring the index for a potential short/sell.
