TNX trade ideas
Where Are Yields Heading ?This chart of the $TNX now reflects that yields are heading into a "correction." Perhaps its time to take a look at TLT as their is a potential money flow out of equities back into fixed income.
Yields at 7%?1987: Inflation was 3.7% and Yield 7%. The Trendline has been broken twice. Above 3.5% will have a Recession and with a 7% Yield, we'll get a 50%-60% S&P500 correction.
Dark time is coming.
Let's also consider that the actual overall debt is huge. Much much larger than in 1987 so the problems could be much worse. I guess they should invent another Plan-demic or some wars to justify the events that will occur.
Unchartered Territory-TNXAnyone who thinks they know for sure what's going to happen in this market should follow price action very, very closely. TNX just closed the month of March by very bullishly crossing the monthly cloud. Since the 1980's interest rates have been in a down trend. TNX could have crossed the monthly cloud bullishly on a couple of occasions but it never had the power to do what it did this month. What happens now?
Here are the times TNX could have had the strength to cross the monthly cloud bullishly but it got rejected:
Here is this months action:
Looking at it from a different angle...below is the monthly chart of ZN. When interest rates rise, ZN futures goes down. Does a 6% Interest Rate sound crazy? Don't break that neckline!
TNX - Needs a Pullback.... but...TNX broke the downtrend line from 1985.
FED may well go Bonzo.
DX may well wreck it all.
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FED is draining via Repos again while buying Bonds
to tame the beast.
Treasuries are to blameThe fact that AAPL still trades at 0.5% div.yield means that the market still does not believe in rising yields. The market still has lots of work to do to force everyone to abandon the belief in low yields. Expect 5-8% for 10Y in the short term, and a repricing of all other assets.
Consider the implications for the broader market. Apple, as an example: moving to mere 2% div.yield would imply a 75% loss of value. Think what's going to happen to risk-parity funds of all flavors. Pension funds. Some of those are actually leveraged these days. A loss of 80% or more is not impossible. This is how prosperity turns into dust.
The crash that began on Feb 10 is not related to Ukraine at all. It's a worldwide event. Two bubbles will pop (Stocks and Debt) and one bubble will inflate one more time: the Dollar will shine.
I continue to be probably the only human on this planet to predict that the massive move that began in Feb will bring EURUSD to 0.86, USDJPY to 100 and SPX will crash to ~1500, all the while 10Y will be climbing to 5% or higher. Brace for impact.
Oh, and USDRUB should get to 250..350 before it becomes investor's heaven.
TNX Topping at the longer term trendline?I think the market is pricing in 10 year yields topping out at about 2.8. Yields are stretching toward the multi decade trendline an I believe the market is expecting rates to fall back from there. Perhaps the buying we are seeing right now is the front running of this expectation. The question is what happens if the longer term trend line does not hold?
10-year at the top of long term channelWill the 10 year finally break out of this long term down channel? The Fed and entire investment world says yes it will and soon. But the chart says it may have a little trouble exceeding this level in the near term.
TNXGapped up into potential resistance at the 0.618 retracement. Rates going to cool off for a little while or blast through it?
The 10 year treasury note (TNX) will reverse its trend soon.The 10 year treasury note (TNX) is following previous tightening cycles very closely.
Since the COVID crash, TNX has been in a clear uptrend, but eventually it will hit a breaking point. The Federal Reserve is signaling they can raise interest rates as high as needed to calm inflation; however, there is a descending resistance line going back decades. This resistance line suggests that a 2.5% TNX is the absolute maximum the rate can go before the Fed takes action.
In my opinion, TNX will follow the dotted line. First, descending over the next few months as the Fed begins tightening in a regular and consistent fashion. The market will begin to recover from the correction it is currently in. Second, later in the year, more negative data will come out about inflation, supply chain degradation, etc. which will severely hurt earnings and the broader markets until something breaks in late 2022 or early 2023. Third, the Fed will stop raising rates and eventually begin lowering them until the TNX is in negative territory.
Many investors are trying to find the 1 thing that will cause markets to tank, but I think this time around the real culprit will just be institutional rot. Everywhere investors look there is very little real growth. Stocks are increasing due to share buybacks, earnings are increasing due to inflation rather than sustainable reasons, and at least for now, the Fed is still propping up many markets. It could very well be that in late 2022 a large economic event does occur that is disastrous for markets like COVID, but I would bet money that it is just a repeat of the 2018-19 tightening cycle where officials attempted to take off the training wheels only to find the market was incapable of adapting and needed to reverse course.
Chart notes: The RSI divergence and triangle show that the TNX will break sometime in this year, just can't tell which direction yet. Considering that banks are decreasing GDP forecasts across the board and Goldman just gave the USA a 35% chance of recession in the next year I would put a lot of money on it breaking down as the opposite would be the breaking of a decades long channel.
You rarely see this steep flattening of the Yield curve 2s- 10sUsually the flattening is a lot more grindy and choppy and it takes more time. This time its a straight nose dive. This probably means that the snap back is going to be fast as well, but you just don't know when the bottom is going to come, so trying to bottom fish is going to be a double edge sword as always.
The yield curve between 10s and 2s rapidly flatteningNot a good sign for the equities. A US recession the next 12 months?
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - XLMUSD\BTC\DOW\EURUSD\GOLD\10YR-YIELDSNot much has changed since the last market update.
The liquidity that has been driving these bubble markets for decades has hit a brick wall with the rise of the 10YR-Bond Yields as the primary guage.
The Fed has no choice but to extinguish this raging inflation by raising rates.
What came first: the chicken or the egg?
Some say that this is politically motivated but I believe this all just human psychology at play.
Nothing lasts forever and there is no such thing as a free lunch and I believe we are about to find out what the real effects of MMT are as we head into the end of this cycle.
An interesting side note is that the Tulip Mania and South Sea bubbles of the 1600s and 1700s both happened during a time when the 10YR Bond Yields were falling to historical all-time lows.
We once again find ourselves in a very similar situation, so how modern is this monetary theory really? Especially when humans keep forgetting the lessons of the past.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
10 yr yield topped . btw The charts is telling me the market as to rates is topped . So I see the FED taking baby steps as the data will start to see Unemployment to be on the up swing and that supply chain to open up
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT!Taking the long view of the last forty years of prosperity where BTFDs and HOLD THE COURSE were the prevailing mantra. But that is paradigm is now over and the new paradigm has yet to emerge. My GURUs are split between A STOCK PICKERS MARKET and THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL CRASH, But Precious metals and other inflation hedges.
But what are you going to do? That is the real question!
make or break area🦉 TNX at this strong local resistance, if we break above we can target 2.559-3.036, if we reject look for a dip to trend support (1.45-1.50) like and follow for more! 💘
TNX - Daily / The Break of SymmetrySince July we began suggesting the ROC large break in early 2021 was a precursor to
a decades-long reversal in the Bond Market.
A Historic event seemingly lost on Convention.
The longer-term downtrend can easily be observed in both Weekly and Monthly
Charts - within those 2 TF's you will see the Long Term Channels UTL.
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I pay a great deal of attention to Symmetry and Time, as it is as important as Price.
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We can see in the chart above, 10 Year Yields decisively broke out as our pivot for
higher was 1.961.
Initially, it was front-run by 1 Pip during the Pre-Open - for bonds the action begins
at 8 AM EST.
The rest is history.
Extensions will trade into March IMHO.
Buyers since the FAKE 153 TOSS have been beaten down. Many are still insisting on
remaining in the Bid,
Buy the Dippers @ 153 / 151 / 149 / 147 / 143 / 142 / 139 / 136 continue to walk themselves
into continuing losses.
The Waffle House opened for Drive-Thru and the parking lot pileup ensued.
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Forward CASH is not only being discounted for 007s, but for Corporate Jumbos aka
Mega Caps.
A clear sign of Depression 10X from August 2020 - a leading indicator by 18 months
historically.
Right on TIME - March 2022.
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You cannot fix stupid you can, however - you can take it's $.
Rates will continue to persist to the Larger time frames @ 3.5%.
This is the point of truncation late this year when 5/5 concludes for the Equity Complex
at New ATHs. Even the TLT baggies will gain small relief as all JUNK is hoisted higher in
one final Tulip Phase.
A multi-year Bear Market will ensue, collaterals will be "Reset" and Bonds, as we long warned
become perpetual.
Fluidity / Mobility matter most.
Unfortunately, the vast majority will remain snared.
SPY vrs 40 YEARS OF DECLINING INTEREST RATESIt just gets curiouser and curiouser.
Will Powell act? He is definitely no Volker! About 1982, under Volker, 30 year rates hit 18%. What next: a long period of low rates with catastrophic inflation or ...
door #2 - Higher rates and a stagnant or falling market.
I may be wrong, but I suspect the FED doesn't want to hurt THE MONEYED CLASS unless they have to.
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart.
1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s.
2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line.
3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted.
4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted.
5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION!
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
US 10 Yr Treasury: Weekly Chart UpdateQuick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1W Linear Chart.
1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s.
2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months.
3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges.
4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below).
5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0.
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Ten Year Treasure Yield Topped !TNX is topped. On major resistance area. Only possible way is going down.
$spy $tnx Target achieved. OUt of short bond and now longMy target for the ten year has been reached and my short on bonds is done. I've reversed and gone long now. Good luck!
