TNX trade ideas
TNX gap fill within 36 monthsneed to take a hard look at your risk assets that hold long term debt, 10 year t bills currently consolidating, about to sell off and have a come-to-jesus moment, equities will reprice, 2-4 taper tantrums on the way before we hit 2024. We break above this down channel and hold, that 3 decade clamp on bonds will be un done, stocks watershed off the backside of their spike up.
There's only so much stock a company can buy back to keep it's multiple elevated. The larger what ifs in the near term are if Europe recovers & reopens faster, and mid term if inflation becomes more distorted based on perception, like...what if the price action of goods is just too good not compete for sometime, 2-3 years of gouging, then labor pricing piles on, then we could hyper-inflate, stag-flate if labor decidedly doesn't give a rats ass about getting back to shit jobs, driving up demand for the underbelly services, you get the picture.
Technology is supposedly a main thesis to why rates have been low for so long. We're about to punch holes into that theory as semi conductors run short everywhere. If tech-drievn economy is so damn smart why are we f cked on that front? Rates going higher.
10 yr yield stopped by the Yearly R1 pivot So far this year, TNX is struggling at the Yearly R1 pivot point.
The Market Only Warns Twice (Treasuries Edition)I repeat and will repeat again: there will be no third warning. This is the most exciting time in the history of the stock market since its inception. The crash in Treasuries (completely unexpected, as usual, despite the two warnings administered so far) will cause SPX to crash to 1800 all the while the 10Y yield will skyrocket to 4..5%.
When wave 3-of-3 in Treasuries begins, it's almost too late to do anything. The panic selling will be overwhelming, and there will be no place to hide (except the Dollar, and... the Yen).
this bear is waking up CPI comes out tomorrow, this thing has pierced a massive trend line going back to the early 1980s. Catalyst near term for a sell off. Oil rallies on the back end of tomorrow's CPI report IMO.
United States 10-Year Bond enough is enough As you see in this chart United States 10-Year Bond in PRZ of the bat pattern. We looking for selling opportunities ONLY
TNX 10 yr. yields at Yr1 resistance 10 year bond yields are struggling at the Yearly R1 pivot point.
10 yr had a TARGET 1.75 TO 1.83 we have TOPPEDLook for a sharp drop in the 10yr now to form base for the next 2 to 4 weeks sell banks if you still have I sold out of everything last week and now only hold DIS also I SAID DO NOT BE SHORT ANYTHING ,And the the QQQ will now see a new high and that sp should see 4071/4131 / But we will have some trouble at or about 4017. be safe BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !
Yields, yields go away come on back another daySteeply rising yields bad, fade momo on rallies, buy cheap puts. Sideways rates, reassess. Large gap up watch out for a larger rollover in iwm and spy
Next bubble popEach time that the cost of money increments, the bubble of the moment pops.
If you check carefully, the parallel channel's upper bands (yellow ones) play the trend resistance role. If those bands are touched, I can reasonably assure that the FED will intervene in the bond market with Yield Curve Control (you don't want to have the biggest economy of the world be insolvent). The intensity of their intervention will depend on the slope of the recent spike.
If the previous description occurs, the only indicator left that we will have for checking the debt market's actual economic reality is the 30-year yield. It is highly improbable that the central banks intervene those yields due to the distance in the final payment.
Any thoughts or opinions are more than welcome.
TNX/IEF🌦Notice the symmetry about the x-axis for TNX and IEF? This is another way to infer a negative correlation between two variables (TNX and IEF).
Pattern recognized: Running flat
Hypothesis: Bullish sentiment
***This does not constitute financial advice.***
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TNX Just keeps chugging higherYikes... the 10 y does not want to slow down.. Clearly above the 382 fib and pushing. Next stop would be 1.94 and then 2.17. According to my methodology the odds favour this now. I'm not sure if the Fed is letting this happen or has lost control. Side note....At what point do home owners figure out their mortgage payments are likely to double the next time they renew.
10Y ready to attack 3% and aboveWave 3-of-3 in treasuries has begun. Expect very sizeable moves in currencies, EUR-crosses, stocks.. everything.
All ingredients of a crash are there:
- Rising yields
- Turkish Lira ready to weaken sharply after a refreshing pause
- Hedge funds begin to liquidate (Archegos is an early bird and their margin call is an important sign).
It's always like that: first the market conditions become right, then an institution fails, or two, or three, and everything is blamed on those. But in reality the market simply follows the gradient of pain, picking direction which would cause as much damage as possible. Archegos who needed to liquidate today simply was on the wrong side of the trade. And because everyone is on the wrong side of the trade today (long stocks, long bonds, short dollar) an avalanche of liquidations will create a crisis in the market very soon.
Rates heading to 2% regardlesswe've exceeded the fib line in the sand, .786 drawn from the previous low, we will test 2% by early next week, multiple bear market signals, NDX/SPX ratio about to break below 3.3, top forming on all major risk-on indices like the SP500, NASDAQ100, DOW, ETC, volatility about to tear up hard, the Dollar will continue to rise
$TNX not surprising at these old support levels, find resistanceThis level for the 10 year was a signficiant support area for a long time. Im expecting a few weeks/months? of bouncing around at these levels before a move higher. Sideways in rates won't hurt risk assets.
10-year paper prepares for a quick spike to above 3%Note that the market is still tracing the inner 2 in Treasuries, this is why there is not too much price action across other instruments. Yet, all indices have already traced a minor leg lower, USDTRY shot up today by 10% and Crude oil is at 1/9 of the sell off. This is how the market is preparing for a big move across all instruments.
When wave 3 of 3 begins in Treasuries, it will be almost too late to do anything: the entire market will enter a quick downward spiral and will be totally owned by the rising yields. USDTRY will certainly reach 14 during the crash, and 20 is possible. EURGBP still owes me a 1000 pips downside to 0.76, which will be correlated with the spike in yields in 3-of-3.
