TNX trade ideas
The Market Only Warns Twice (Treasuries Edition)I repeat and will repeat again: there will be no third warning. This is the most exciting time in the history of the stock market since its inception. The crash in Treasuries (completely unexpected, as usual, despite the two warnings administered so far) will cause SPX to crash to 1800 all the while the 10Y yield will skyrocket to 4..5%.
When wave 3-of-3 in Treasuries begins, it's almost too late to do anything. The panic selling will be overwhelming, and there will be no place to hide (except the Dollar, and... the Yen).
this bear is waking up CPI comes out tomorrow, this thing has pierced a massive trend line going back to the early 1980s. Catalyst near term for a sell off. Oil rallies on the back end of tomorrow's CPI report IMO.
United States 10-Year Bond enough is enough As you see in this chart United States 10-Year Bond in PRZ of the bat pattern. We looking for selling opportunities ONLY
TNX 10 yr. yields at Yr1 resistance 10 year bond yields are struggling at the Yearly R1 pivot point.
10 yr had a TARGET 1.75 TO 1.83 we have TOPPEDLook for a sharp drop in the 10yr now to form base for the next 2 to 4 weeks sell banks if you still have I sold out of everything last week and now only hold DIS also I SAID DO NOT BE SHORT ANYTHING ,And the the QQQ will now see a new high and that sp should see 4071/4131 / But we will have some trouble at or about 4017. be safe BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !
Yields, yields go away come on back another daySteeply rising yields bad, fade momo on rallies, buy cheap puts. Sideways rates, reassess. Large gap up watch out for a larger rollover in iwm and spy
Next bubble popEach time that the cost of money increments, the bubble of the moment pops.
If you check carefully, the parallel channel's upper bands (yellow ones) play the trend resistance role. If those bands are touched, I can reasonably assure that the FED will intervene in the bond market with Yield Curve Control (you don't want to have the biggest economy of the world be insolvent). The intensity of their intervention will depend on the slope of the recent spike.
If the previous description occurs, the only indicator left that we will have for checking the debt market's actual economic reality is the 30-year yield. It is highly improbable that the central banks intervene those yields due to the distance in the final payment.
Any thoughts or opinions are more than welcome.
TNX/IEF🌦Notice the symmetry about the x-axis for TNX and IEF? This is another way to infer a negative correlation between two variables (TNX and IEF).
Pattern recognized: Running flat
Hypothesis: Bullish sentiment
***This does not constitute financial advice.***
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TNX Just keeps chugging higherYikes... the 10 y does not want to slow down.. Clearly above the 382 fib and pushing. Next stop would be 1.94 and then 2.17. According to my methodology the odds favour this now. I'm not sure if the Fed is letting this happen or has lost control. Side note....At what point do home owners figure out their mortgage payments are likely to double the next time they renew.
10Y ready to attack 3% and aboveWave 3-of-3 in treasuries has begun. Expect very sizeable moves in currencies, EUR-crosses, stocks.. everything.
All ingredients of a crash are there:
- Rising yields
- Turkish Lira ready to weaken sharply after a refreshing pause
- Hedge funds begin to liquidate (Archegos is an early bird and their margin call is an important sign).
It's always like that: first the market conditions become right, then an institution fails, or two, or three, and everything is blamed on those. But in reality the market simply follows the gradient of pain, picking direction which would cause as much damage as possible. Archegos who needed to liquidate today simply was on the wrong side of the trade. And because everyone is on the wrong side of the trade today (long stocks, long bonds, short dollar) an avalanche of liquidations will create a crisis in the market very soon.
Rates heading to 2% regardlesswe've exceeded the fib line in the sand, .786 drawn from the previous low, we will test 2% by early next week, multiple bear market signals, NDX/SPX ratio about to break below 3.3, top forming on all major risk-on indices like the SP500, NASDAQ100, DOW, ETC, volatility about to tear up hard, the Dollar will continue to rise
$TNX not surprising at these old support levels, find resistanceThis level for the 10 year was a signficiant support area for a long time. Im expecting a few weeks/months? of bouncing around at these levels before a move higher. Sideways in rates won't hurt risk assets.
10-year paper prepares for a quick spike to above 3%Note that the market is still tracing the inner 2 in Treasuries, this is why there is not too much price action across other instruments. Yet, all indices have already traced a minor leg lower, USDTRY shot up today by 10% and Crude oil is at 1/9 of the sell off. This is how the market is preparing for a big move across all instruments.
When wave 3 of 3 begins in Treasuries, it will be almost too late to do anything: the entire market will enter a quick downward spiral and will be totally owned by the rising yields. USDTRY will certainly reach 14 during the crash, and 20 is possible. EURGBP still owes me a 1000 pips downside to 0.76, which will be correlated with the spike in yields in 3-of-3.
Bond yields correlation with NASDAQ 100 and CryptocurrenciesAs the chart shows, after last Wednesday's FOMC announcement, the 10 Year Treasury yields broke above 1.65 for a test of 1.75 with potential move toward 2%. This is a hugely important move and is part of what has affected the NASDAQ and the recent corrections in crypto currencies. There is also the additional move out of the high growth and high performance stocks in NASDAQ to cyclicals and this can be seen in the divergence between NASDAQ and S&P 500; we saw multiple days when NASDAQ has either lagged S&P 500 or has been negative while S&P 500 has remained marginally positive. Given the correlation between NASDAQ and the crypto currencies these trends have also influenced the crypto currency trades.
It is worth noting that the yield on 10 year Treasury is the basis for corporate bonds and therefore, has a significant impact on the market; in other words, higher 10 year yields higher borrowing costs.
Therefore, as Jerome Powell and FOMC try to keep the current low lending rates to support and stimulate the economy, the market is pricing increasing inflation expectations into the 10 year Treasuries and this is creating increasing tension in the bond markets (for those who are familiar with technical analysis, this means increased convexivity).
Conclusion:
TLDR: This means we are up for a rocky ride going forward and somewhat downward pressure on risk appetite. Therefore, investors need to be more selective than before with their investment choices.
If you are investing in crypto currencies make sure you know and understand the projects you invest in.
TNX A long term look at the 10 year yieldHere is a monthly chart of the TNX which tracts the 10 year bond yield. Yields have been in a 40 year down trend that started at the parabolic top in 1981. Yields stabilized by 1987 and then started the slow and orderly decline to 2020 within this regression channel. The question everyone has now is whether or not the 40 year bond rally is finally coming to a end. The yield is starting to look like it is beginning to form a base. A new up trend will not be confirmed, however, until price break out of the channel and closes above the 2018 pivot. A push up to 2.25 seems likely but what happens in the 3.25 area is the most important. A sharp spike above 3.50 would not be good and move back down to new lows would not be heathy. Personally I am hoping for yields to stabilize and move sideways in a range between 1.50 and 3. Check out my previous charts re bonds and yields to get some context. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
$TNX Direction & Dot-Plot summaryTechnical Analysis
Technically speaking, 1.6% had been a very important level, as we tested 6 times, before continuing higher.
Now the 10sma which has been working very well year-to-date, is lining up with the 1.6% level.
I expect some selling to reach the 10sma at 1.6%, for a bounce to 2%.
Dot Plot Summary
7/18 FOMC officials are predicting higher short-term interest rates by the end of 2023, as compared to 5/17 at the December meeting (i.e., a growing percentage who see an earlier start for rate hikes). Notably, four officials now expect a rate hike at some point next year.
10 Year Yield Moving parabolicallyThis is what I see for the 10-yr: a parabolic- type move as repo rates go negative and banks go short on treasury bonds. As of right now there is nothing stopping the yield form going to about 2%, although I do believe the Federal Reserve will intervene before that happens.
CAN YOU SAY OVEREATION?The Bond yield for 10 Years was never going to stay below 1% its returning to a channel or a level Investors like it at, in the long run this is a good think it makes bonds more attractive to Investors and it's good for the country to long term and will probably help inflation if more people buy into the government. People are getting all doomsday I don't buy it and that's the only thing I'm not buy because I'm buying all these dips and diamond handing to valhalla!!!
