TNX - Next targets in sight are 1.86 and 1.95The Fed is not concerned about the yields in long-end of the curve. Does this mean more good new for stocks, and, particularly, commodities?
TNX trade ideas
A vivid thought about TNX longtermI don't know much about macroeconomics rate, bonds, and such mumbo jumbo. However, I like to draw pretty drawings with lines and use colorful colors.
US Stimmies and re-opening economics after the covid-era might trigger an increase in inflation, increasing rates on loans. So, a 10-year treasury yield prediction at 2% doesn't sound far-fetched, maybe even 3%?.
I will have a close eye on this chart for a while.
Fluff
Never mind the taper tantrum: Buy GoldAfter a long downtrend that is starting to look like a bull-flag type pattern, gold has reached a historically important level - which has corresponded with multiple inflection points since 2011 (including March 2020).
Gold has a clear negative relationship with 10 year rates - which are also at a key historical inflection point in a sharp rise amid a multi-year secular downtrend. Rates are already rejecting hard off a key fib level (red line), and we should expect them to go down in the coming months. Furthermore, the 10-year RSI is at historically high levels. Previous iterations over 70 have usually corresponded with the start of major declines in 10-year rates.
All these factors together suggest now is the time to go long on Gold.
Through The Roof...This will not stop until the entire market accepts the idea that yields will be high forever. I think 10Y will blow past 3%. Even 3.5 .. 4% are possible.
The trend is ready to blow-up. Usually, once waves 1-2-1-2 are completed, wave 3-of-3 happens really fast: almost instantly compared to the rest of the move. I estimate the yellow 3 completed by end of April, yellow 5 end May, and some follow up in summer in the final green wave 5.
Expect a real crash in stocks starting next week, and through entire March and April: should correlate heavily with the development of wave 3 in Treasuries.
While many expect stocks to crash, very few expect the dollar to move. The world is still at an all-time record heavy short on DXY, because of the prevailing belief that "the dollar is too strong and can only weaken from here." Wave 3-of-3 in Treasuries and Stocks will force the market to abandon this idea. The rush into the dollar will be unprecedented.
TNX 10-year ratesam.jpmorgan.com
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on April 1, 2020 that it would temporarily exclude U.S. Treasuries (USTs) and banks’ deposits with the Fed (Fed deposits) from its calculation of banks’ supplementary leverage ratio or SLR. The action is the latest aggressive measure by the Fed to help ensure the flow of risk and liquidity through the financial system. It is set to last until March 31, 2021. Below are some frequently asked questions relevant to liquidity investors about the new rule.
TNX - ready for a breather?Try as it might at getting over 1.60, yields look tapped out at this point to me. Overbought on Daily and Weekly. I expect some retreat maybe to the 1.30 area.
US Bonds compared to TSLA, NIO & PLTRExpecting another red day tomorrow. Watch the rates for the US Bonds to get an idea of where the market is heading!
US-MARKETS: 4-MAJOR INFLUENCERS10 yr Yield expected LOWER, RISK-ON after conformation.
BUYING STRATEGY: Take 50% profit at 50% of previous WAVE (just do it) and place stop at purchase price.
IF price reverses lower YOUR EVEN,.... IF price continues UP-TREND then, re-buy at NEXT CORRECTIVE WAVE.
This is actually a very aggressive strategy for going in early that is why 50% "hedge" PROFIT is taken EARLY in the TRADE.
Combining ELLIOTT WAVE and THIS strategy , has SAVED my account 3-TMES during the past 3-weeks.
10 Year vs. NASWill the FED step in - my homework is to study the YCC strategy for controlling the yield curve. Top catalyst on watch.
Free market wants higher 10yr yieldsWe are going to 2% and dragging everyone kicking and screaming. Fed cannot implement YCC just yet, things need to get way more gruesome to justify it in terms of optics.
TNX at key levelThis is an updated chart of TNX. Yields are at an important level. This 382 fib should be resistance and send yields back down and calm the market.
If the TNX pushes through this level yields could quickly end up at 2%. This would not be good news for high flying tech stocks.
10 year bond - Back to the pastDouble top in the chart
Double top in RSI
Double top in MACD
THIS CAN ONLY GO DOWN and STOCK MARKET UP! reversal correlation
10 year bond - OverboughtRSI overbought
and I think 10 year bond is in a cup and handle formation.
I see a crash or big correction in 6-10 months in the stock market.
Conclusion is that short on bond and still bullish in the stock market and I think we will push back to higher level in short time in stock market.
10 Year Treasury yield at resistance levelThe 10 Year Treasury yields have bounced aggressively from all time lows. However, we are not at the August/September 2020 lows which coincides magically (lookup the gold number found everywhere in the Cosmos) with the 38.2% fibo retracement from the highs to the lows. If rates go sideways or correct from here, we're likely going to see a bounce in the Nasdaq which is currently near the 100 DMA bounce level...
