TNX trade ideas
TNX Appears to have confirmed a baseI posted this chart a while back with the title " Eventually the new cycle is going to worry about this" referring to the fact that 10year yields appeared to be breaking out of a base. With the break above 1.27 today the high of the March 1st pin bar has been breached as well as the June 1st high confirming a base breakout. Although this is good news for financials higher rates are not good for pretty much everyone else. If we see a rapid rise in rates I don't believe the market would be happy. Its not that a percent or two would cripple the economy its that the market would fear that the Fed is losing control despite absolutely massive bond purchases. Think about it...if the Fed can't keep rates down with the current amount of money they are printing what would happen if the global appetite for bonds started to dry up and bond holders start to sell in fear of losing capital. Perhaps the spike in the repo overnight rates not so long ago was foreshadowing of things to come. I am very bullish on the market right now, but the possibility a rapid sell off in bonds scares me and is definitely something to keep and eye on.
A market event is coming in TreasuriesThe Fed will not be able to do anything (and they never did). They pretended that they controlled the rates, which was a very convenient lie for 40 years: the rates were grinding lower no matter what, and everybody was happy anyways: the public was happy to know that the Fed is in charge, the folks at the Fed were happy to have their paychecks for doing not too much, except occasionally giving speeches for extra hundreds of k$.
US Ten Year yield up tp 1.4% area...After the fall in yields which accompanied Covid risk off crash, yields are moving up toward the 1.4% area. Doubt yields can go much higher and that zone, 1.34-1.45% would be a good place to buy duration...
Gold to 10YR Treasury Yield (inverted)Since 2007 perfect correlation.
If you expect yields down... get some 🥇
Read below
INTEREST RATES - Tracking Minor Waves - Wave iv of Wave 5Just following on from my 10 bond yields idea back in November - Ideas linked below in related ideas.
AriasWave just keeps getting better and better so now we have a stack of evidence telling us when the show will end.
Below I will link ALL RELATED IDEAS mentioned in the video.
THIS MARKET IS THE REASON WHY EVERYTHING IS THE WAY IT IS RIGHT NOW.
But all that will change soon and so will the world.
Not that it hasn't already. This is why I love the waves.
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$TNX textbook long setup. Hawkish.Long downtrend now broken. Who knows where it goes with the supply side deficit and stimulus around whilst COVID ravages western economies.
Eventually the news cycle will start to worry about this.10 year yield breaking from a base. A slow increase in rates is healthy and reflects a strong economy. A fast move up in rates in not good.
I always keep an eye on rates. Spiking rates could end up being the pin.
TNX still holding up wellTNX still holding up well. With this doing great, keep an eye on financial stocks. I have a position in C.
US INTEREST RATES \ BOND YIELDS - Bottom Confirmed.This is a follow up video to the larger view posted a couple of hours ago. (See related ideas)
In this video I confirm that the Wave (C) down since 1981 is over.
We have seen a minor Waves 1 and 2 of the new trend which is the start of a large degree Wave C.
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US INTEREST RATES - To Go Through The Roof. Here's The Evidence.Using the very latest advances in my AriasWave analysis I bring to you the breakdown of the US Bond Yields AKA INTEREST RATES.
What do you think higher interest rates will do to the global economy? Leave your comments below.
My analysis using the AriasWave methodology is improving at a rapid rate.
Once you learn how to do proper research you will no longer rely on indicators or hunches.
Get ready because things are about to get messy in the debt market.
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TNX Close to confirming double bottomAs I have mentioned in an earlier post. Yields are something to keep and eye on.
TNX is at .95 and could confirm a double bottom. Higher yields change the entire
market dynamic. Good for banks, strengthens the dollar, weakens precious metals,
bad for home builders ect.
Most importantly it tells us that money is moving out of bonds. This is usually bullish
for the stocks unless it goes up too fast causing debt service concerns.
See previous post below.
TNX looks like yield may have found a bottomYield looks like its bottoming. A simple back test would take it up to 1.47.
The yield on the 10y can have a big effect on all markets so its worth keeping and eye on.
The 40 year bond bull ended in MarchTake a look at the longer term charts. I don't think it means inflation is coming exactly, more like volatility.
$TNX trying to bottom. Lots of talk of inflatn.guess I'll just follow this type of chart as the canary. Lots of upside. Next test the down trend line. Might explode to the upside. Time will tell. Lots of risk abounds atm.
BOND YIELDS - 870 Year Zig Zag In Bond Yields Looks CompleteThe Red Wave A Zig Zag since 1150AD looks complete. The (C) Wave was an expanding ending diagonal.
I have clearly marked the impulsive 3 Wave moves (1,3,& 5) and the corrective move (2 & 4)
Down below there is a 1-2 pattern forming which also looks complete, I will touch on that in a separate idea.
Higher Interest Rates Anyone?
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TNX - Treasury Yields are running into ResistanceThe rates have been creeping up slowly (idea published on 8/26/20) but they are running into resistance area. It would be interesting.....
TNX... trend up... divergenceInterest rates in the usa is showing a strong divergence of push up... we need to see more to com but for moment ... trend up
TNXBouncing off resistance for now. Probably bounces around in the range a little longer if I had to guess.
The rise in Treasury yields should accelerate in Oct and Nov.There is no resistance at all up until here. Consider the 10y paper is already at 2% or slightly below. And it may happen before the election. The question is, what will happen after that: technically we can go further and further in wave C, easily smashing 3.2%. If this happens, then we have a true trend change, and the 40-year long bullish cycle in Treasuries will be over.
TNX - Treasury Yields ready to break up?I am watching for the Trend line break for a confirmation.
I know everyone is expecting the interest rates to continue to go down but...
