TNX Inverse Head and ShouldersTNX just bounced off the bottom end of its ascending channel and formed an inverse H&S while doing so. Kind of scary looking for bulls.
TNX trade ideas
TNX Ascending ChannelTNX has been rising, but it's forming an ascending channel that could lead to a bearish break below. Currently sitting near the bottom end of the channel. The jobless claims from today should push this lower as traders anticipate rate cuts starting in September.
Have Rates Finally Peaked?Stocks rose last week, but a more important signal may have come from the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
Today’s idea uses multiple time frames to consider whether borrowing costs have finally peaked.
The first pattern on the daily chart is the gap lower on November 2. It was a key day when labor productivity improved much more than expected and labor costs fell more than expected. That news drove down interest rates and helped propel the S&P 500 on its current rally.
TNX’s peak on November 2 was roughly 4.7 percent. The level was retested on November 13 (establishing a weekly high) before yields continued down below 4 percent.
Yields paused at the same zone in late April and were unable to climb further. The result could be a lower high on the weekly chart. If TNX remains below this level it could be the first major sign that interest rates are done increasing.
The June 2008 high of 4.324 percent has also been important. Last month’s breakout above that level worried investors and handed the S&P 500 its first negative month since October. Will traders now look for a retest?
In conclusion, inflation news has been mixed recently. However, Jerome Powell seems determined to cut interest rates and resist further hikes. Commodities also dropped last week and employment data was soft. That might be enough to support the doves -- at least for the time being.
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#Treasury Yields are they going to over 7% !!!Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction.
Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining.
The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline.
This will have major consequences if the #Economy is unable to whether a higher cost of capital
and Gives big money managers to park their money in a risk free asset and earn #yield
treasury notes are any #bond with a less than 2 year maturation.
All Eyes on the 10-YearU.S. Treasury yields have dominated sentiment since early 2022. Today we’ll return to the important chart of the key 10-year note.
This chart uses two-week candles to show the bigger picture. The yellow line illustrates the upward trend.
Four levels are also highlighted.
First is the October 2018 peak of 3.248. TNX held that level in April 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. An old high became a new low, which signaled a potential reversal.
Second is the June 2008 high of 4.324 -- a few months before the worst of the subprime collapse. TNX peaked there in October 2022 and fell under that level as the S&P 500 climbed last year. But now it’s back above it.
Two more long-term levels could be in play next. The June 2007 high of 5.316 was the peak before the Global Financial Crisis. It could be the next logical stopping point for the current move.
Above that, 6.823 was the zenith from early in the century.
Next, one might consider that the decline in yields since the early 1980s was a very long-term trend. That could mean its upside reversal will last longer than some might hope.
The macro backdrop and fundamentals in the Treasury market could also be important. Monday’s retail sales report could suggest the economy is strong enough to forgo rate cuts. Last week also saw poor demand for a 10-year Treasury auction, a wider than expected fiscal deficit and higher-than-expected CPI.
Given these conditions, nerves may remain on edge into key events like gross domestic product on April 25, PCE on April 26 and the next Federal Reserve decision on May 1.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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high probability entries for cyclicalsHigh probability entries using TNX trend, macd and BB. Broad market, cyclicals
basics.
price and macd divergence bearish.
bullish if macd is at support and BB is at support/breakout.
can combine w/ the trend lines?
tightening BB means accumulation, break outs.
just for fun and learning purposes.
//stay w/ the dominant trend.
10 year interest rates heading higher?WIth two consecutive up side breakouts recent months, I reckon the odds for higher rates are higher than a dip back into the range.
Time will tell...
Opening (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 100 Covered CallsComments:
Doing something long-dated here in 20 year+ paper to get in at a cost basis that is coincident with a 10 year yield at 4.10%.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis: 91.40/contract
Max Profit: 8.60 ($860)/contract
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 9.41% (Excluding Dividends)
ROC at 50% Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 4.70% (Excluding Dividends)
Delta/Theta: 49/1.00
Will look to roll out the short calls at intervals if they're in profit to reduce cost basis further. They're currently marking at 7.00/7.25 with the only available expiry to roll out to in Jan of 2026 (so I'll be forced to sit on my hands for "a bit").
Are Yields Still Heading Higher?Investors have been optimistic about interest rates and inflation for much of the past year. However, two important charts may undermine those hopes.
Today’s weekly chart returns to the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.
First consider the series of higher lows since July 2022 – despite improvements in headline inflation numbers. That rising trendline may reflect upward pressure.
Second, there are two levels.
To the downside, 3.82 represented the approximate peaks last June. It was also the near bottom of the range in late December. When an old high becomes a new low, it can suggest that direction is ascending.
To the upside, 4.324 was the peak in June 2008. TNX remained under that level until last September. It dipped back below in November, but is now pushing back toward it.
The combination of the rising trendline and old peak could make some chart watchers expect continuation if the upside is breached.
The second chart is the FX:EURUSD Euro / U.S. dollar currency pair. The big slide began in June 2021 and accelerated as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. EURUSD retraced about half the drop by early last year and has moved sideways since.
Price action has narrowed in the last eight months, highlighted by the converging trendlines. Will that make traders watch for a potential break to the downside?
These patterns could be especially important given the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
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TNX4.33 is a key level imo. We'll see how price reacts to it this month. Momentum is up for now. Long-term chart still just now breaking out of downtrend.
Treasury Yields Stall at Potentially Key LevelTreasury yields have had a big impact on stocks since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates in 2022. Now one of the biggest charts in that market might have done something important.
Today we focus on the 10-year Treasury note’s yield, measured by the index TNX.
The first pattern is the 4.324 percent level. It was a peak in June 2008 and again last August. TNX pushed above it in September but then returned below it in late November. Yields rebounded this year and stalled at the same spot last month. Is it marking a top again?
Second, the recent high represents a 50 percent retracement of the drop from late October through late December. That may confirm its downward trend.
Finally, stochastics have been falling since mid-February.
These patterns could be important before news events this week. Jerome Powell testifies on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls are on Friday.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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TNX Cycles & TA: 1/16/24Time is running out for a very specific event this year in the TNX. The charts will immediately show you what I mean and cycles are projecting something the GOLD bugs and Silver bugs have been waiting for a very long time... It seems their time is coming up and it may last for about a decade.... Time is extremely short to get into position for what the charts are saying is coming.
10 year yield BOTTOMED look for an ABC back to 4.35/4.5The chart is the 10 yr paper We now have 5 waves down and into .618 Look for a move BACK UP in RATES and this should also see The peak formed in Dia and Spy QQQ IWM and most of all SOX
BOND YIELDS - Expect to See Minimum 20% Interest Rates...Have you ever encountered the notion that less can be more? Well, that's precisely why it has taken me considerable time to present this update concept regarding Bond Yields. This analysis carries profound implications for every global market. What we're witnessing here holds the potential to trigger the most significant economic downturn in our lifetime—the impending prospect of the Greatest Depression. The issue at hand is human complacency. In today's world, there's a pervasive disregard for the past, dismissing it as old news. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Our society seems destined to repeat the same errors due to our complacency, particularly in an era dominated by instant gratification. We persist in borrowing from the future at an unprecedented rate, marking the pinnacle of leverage and record debt compared to household income, which is at historically low levels. I take my time delivering this information to ensure the utmost quality in my analysis, even if it means minimizing my output. Stay tuned for more insights to come.
Possible bounce off .786 Fib for $TNXShowing a possible bounce off the .786fib, for a continued new EW for TVC:TNX
TNX 10-year note Daily frame TNX support at 200EMA 4.109 if it holds may lead to a bounce , thus resulting in a larger pullback in /ES and /NQ
/NOTE: /ZB is at resistance level
10Y longer term analysis. 10Y above 10% on track in 2024.See chart for comments.
A good example of a move with an extended wave 5.
TNX US 10 Year Yields.. A pause that refreshes ?As 10 year yields tend to drive many investment decisions these days ...
My current view of where we have been and with a roadmap for where we are headed.
Not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.
S.
Potential Topping Patterns in Treasury YieldsFew charts have mattered more to investors recently than the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. After a strong move to the upside, some contrary signals may be emerging.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the potential “hanging man” candlestick on October 19. It was followed by a lower close, and then a trio of bearish outside days. Such price action may be consistent with a reversal.
Second, MACD made a lower high in late October as yields inched higher. That kind of divergence (marked in yellow) can reflect exhaustion of a trend.
Third, the recent lower highs have produced a descending triangle. While this isn’t typically a reversal pattern, the tightening prices may indicate the uptrend has lost strength.
Next, TNX has come within roughly 20 basis points of the yield on the TVC:US02Y two-year Treasury note. That level for the yield curve was the peak in September 2022 before it inverted under 100 basis points. Is it also holding the longer rate down?
Finally, we previously identified 5.25 percent as a potential upside level. However, TNX has approached 5 percent without being able to close above it. Some traders may view the “nice round number” as a logical place for the move to end.
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TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
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Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
ACKMAN!!!! Ackman Bond Short.
4% to 5%
Don't Overthink it
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WHY TO GET BULLISHNow every bear will come out and say market going to crash. In my opinion i am bullish and this is the double bottom setup. Looks at TNX it has formed a double top which means it is going to go down which inturn will push equities higher. I have loaded calls .
$TNX The First of Many Targets TNX is reaching it's first target of many in a swelling breakout. Noted are the target levels to watch out for on the way up, ultimately looking to close our long position nearing the 10% line as we fill this bullish box.
