TNX trade ideas
Rapid Re-Inflation In Interest Rates/Floor For The Stock Market.The rapid re-inflation in long term U.S. interest rates
has caught many flatfooted , and on the wrong side of the trade
in the last few days.
From a bottom at 1.45 %, only a few weeks ago,
the 10 Year Bond $TNX closed today at 1.70 %,
a .25 % Increase in yield, from the bottom, a huge move, in a very short period of time.
The strikingly quick rebound in long term rates could signify,
a potential reversal of fortune, in the ceaseless downward pressure on return going on throughout 2019.
Key Point/And The Bullish Assumption Here.
The rise in long term interest rates could put a significant floor in equity prices, at these levels
as the vast fears of an economic slowdown may soon subside.
The anticipation of a potential new even " manufactured "cycle of growth at this point created at this point in the cycle,
would surely be welcome news to those who may not have blinked fast enough, and just missed the new trend change.
Sell Bonds. Buy Stocks
TNX Last 1.70 % + 4.93 %
THE_UNWIND
9/10/19
NEW YORK
Big Money Continue's To Fear Something FinancialThe continuous drop in Long Term Interest Rates in 2019
as measured by the drop in 10 Year Bond $TNX Rates
merit's considerable caution, and continues to be of growing daily concern.
From a high yield of 3.25 % in 2018, when growth assumptions were in full throttle, in the new administration,
the yield on the 10 Year has continued to drop off the chart this summer, hitting a new cycle low of 1.45 % just last week.
That significant drop in yield now puts the 10 Year Bond perilously close to the major cycle bottom LOW in 2016,
at the Brexit Crisis at 1.33 %, shown here on the Monthly Chart.
Note the Triple Bottom Monthly Formation on the chart.
However,also note the BEARISH NEW RSI Breakdown to new lows
a potential very bearish financial omen in the making.
That should be a clear warning, that big money seems to think they smell something fishy.
For those looking for clues, as to the structural health of the US economy,
I suggest that you turn your attention to the long term interest rate market
measuring the minute by minute cost of money each day.
A significant break of the Brexit Low of 1.33% in the 10 Year US Bond,
could suggest more structural damage to the US financial system,
than is currently being anticipated.
$TNX Last 1.47 % - 2.66%
THE_UNWIND
9/3/19
NEW YORK
TNX has to complete triple bottom or inverted head and shouldersTNX has been in a channel for a long time, forming a base of a triple bottom or an inverted head and shoulders. Once the right shoulder or third touch is made, we go up from there. If we don't the bond market (inverted) will go pop, and eventually burst. This is a fantastic indicator that most don't factor in. Dollar strength... if it continues to go higher, that's bad - too high, and if it goes lower, that's bad - stock will follow indicating weaker economy ahead. This QE experiment has finally failed. Cannot continue to devalue currencies, and have the dollar be the sacrificial lamb. The rubber band has been stretched so tight, it is about to give out. Cannot continue to store money at a cost, Cash/dollar is better alternative, until it is not. And then... where to put your money, the mattress in the next bank. So I am short until we touch, then HOPEFULLY long, so this economy doesn't crumble. FED rate cut should help that. And if they stick to their data is strong, economy is strong thing, then they will be way behind the curve here, and the TNX will crash below the third 138. And then playing catch up will be impossible. They are in a touch, very delicate, very fragile spot. Hope they chose wisely.
I haven't posted in a wile, so to all my followers, this moment in time calls for sharing this info, hope you all fare well.
Collapse in yields, but equities not getting the loveIt isn't surprising to see the collapse in yields. However, what is a big tell and signal is the lack of buying in equities over the same period.
This would mean there is likely a crowding into bonds for the sake of squeezing out the appreciation (not the yield) and not an interest in using the lower yields in the bond market to buy more equities and take on more risk. This is a warning sign.
Long Term Interst Rates Appear Very Close to BottomingThe Monthly TNX Chart, the 10 Year US Treasury Bond shown here,
reveals long term interest rates may be close to bottoming,
despite the hysteria going on in the marketplace,
that somehow rates are headed to zero here in the US
Stochastic Monthly Indicator on TNX
is now as deeply oversold as you will see on the chart for the last 7 years,
and looks ready to cross to the upside and give a Buy Signal on Yield.
That could mean lower bond prices ahead after the recent almost parabolic rise of the last year.
What troubles the bond market may know or think it knows
about future economic growth or credit crisis's out there
have been consistently priced in as bond prices have risen.
However it is also apparent from a reading of this chart,
that the chance of any major banking or credit crisis looming out there,
may now have already been fully priced in, perhaps even baked into bond market prices..
The bond market thus seems very near an intermediate, and potential long term top.
.
Recommendation :
Short Long Term Bond's
10, 20, and 30 Year Yields
10 Year TNX Last 1.73 %
Target Minimum 2.00 %
THE_UNWIND
8/10/19
NEW YORK
Rollover In Interest Rates Give Clues to Stock Market WeaknessLine Break Close Only Chart of TNX, the 10 Year US Bond,
shows a massive rollover in interest rates beginning in late 2018 from 3.25%,
and continuing after the Fed meeting this past week, with new cycle lows
as the market continues to drive rates lower by the day.
What is going on here ?
Clues to the sharp stock market selloff after the Fed meeting can be seen right here.
A strong growing economy naturally increases the inflationary pressures,
and rates should theoretically go up.
The fact that the opposite is happening right now, and rates are plummeting
is a warning sign that something is amiss, that may not be fully known by the market.
THE_UNWIND
8/4/19
NEW YORK
US 10Yr Decision TimeIf you aren't following this chart you are doing it wrong, the proverbial canary in the coal mine #Study #TradingEducation #Forex #Dollar
Rates Down For a Few More Months...Then Up, Up and AwayThis leading diagonal ended as called earlier appears to be making an ABC correction that should end when C = A at 1.75
Then, the longer term upward correction should continue in a third wave, which I think will be a C wave ending this sub-minuet level correction of the larger minute correction of the larger trend.
C should be equal to A as measured from the end of the ongoing sub-minuet ABC correction.
Long 10 year for a couple months, then short 10 year (as rates rise and price falls) for the next year or so...
Good luck!
10/30's spread reached bat's first targetPossible reaction first, then maybe lower to D and wedge's PO $ZB_F, $ZN_F, $TLT, $IEF
SHORT June critical supports about to give way (WEEKLY VIEW)?
using the monthly 20 MA or weekly 100 MA (~equivalent), we can watch to see where markets unfold.
Prepare to short the breakdown and take profits quick, the re-short at bull trap retest of the MA breakdown.
TNX study using Parabolic SAR & 40MA makes trading SPX look easyHigher highs not impossible in following months here's why. In this Parabolic SAR pattern match I'm interested in the months subsequent to a match when yield closes first time below average (marked by red verticals). It's been a good time to buy the months after, and for S&P to go on & make new highs. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
NOTE THE CORRECTION ON CHART BELOW where second A starts.
"Fear of The Unknown" Interest Rates+Stocks Dropping SharplyLong Term Interest Rates continue to plunge today,
with the 10 Year now down to 2.21 %.
Line Break Chart shows current chart support at 2.07,
and much more importantly at the 2 % threshold.
The continued and surprisingly sharp move down in interest rates,
is now having a direct impact on the stock market,
as investors big, and small are selling stocks, and buying bonds in a risk off trade.
The Dow Industrial Average has now broken thru it's 200 Day Moving Average
keeping in mind the DOW never made a new all time high in 2019,
a bearish divergence I have noted
while today, the S+P 500 has broken thru 2800 Major Chart Support
and is now trading below its 200 Day Moving Average.
Once again, just like what started in late 2018,
investors are suddenly wanting to get out of the market immediately
with price breakdown apparent, and prior market complacency
now being replaced by real concern, and the beginnings of fear.
Often market bottoms can be made with a set up like this,
but with still many traders looking for and expecting..
a short term bottom and upside reversal any time
downside risk at this point,
is still very unknown.
THE_UNWIND
5/29/19
NEW YORK
Why Are Interest Rates Collapsing in 2019 ?The question you want to ask yourself this weekend,
lies not with lofty stock price valuations,
but rather with a simple basic understanding of the underlying cost of money.
With a resurgent economy in 2019,
combined with the lowest unemployment in decades,
and highest consumer confidence numbers ever recorded
..then why are long term interest rates collapsing in 2019 ?
You would think that there might be a hint of inflation
building in the financial system with long term interest rates,
going out 10/30 years in duration rising,
if economic prospects on the horizon were seen as strong,and bright.
However, as the 10 year chart on TNX
shows here, long term interest rates are collapsing,
just this past week breaking down chart support again
with long term rates down over 33 % in the past year !
Conventional wisdom had been
for long term rates to rise above 4 %.
Now a year later, the question is whether a 2 % floor, or bottom in rates
a number that the Fed holds as the magic number on inflation,
will hold them from collapsing even further.
It is no wonder then,that the wildly optimistic market projections
about future economic growth and expansion ,
are now being widely and dare say rudely questioned.
Just look at a chart of the Dow Transportation Average,
to note the collapsing economy up close and personal.
And to top it off,..get this.
One of the largest and most influential banks in the world
Chase Bank just issued a forecast this past week
calling for just... 1 %... 2nd quarter GDP growth in the US
So while you are outside enjoying the back yard barbecue
in the true holiday spirit of reflection and enjoyment,
ask yourself just one financial question this weekend.
What ..do big financial institutions,
who manage trillions of interest rate dollars everyday,
know about the underlying health of the US economy
....that you don't know ?
Have a good holiday weekend.
THE_UNWIND
5/25/19
NEW YORK
Supply and demand for OIL (sometimes stocks) These are correlated most of the time. when they correlate the move will be BIG!
Up????
10-year Treasury yield fails at 50-day moving averageBearish pennant projects to 2.15% (61.8% retracement of move from 1.4 to 3.25%).
