A WARNING SIGNALWe may experience a significant return to volatility in the market if we get to the bedlam zone.
Inflationary pressures are back. Oil is rallying organically on no recent incremental news. Gasoline prices are making new highs for 2023. Markets are forward-looking and the disinflation narrative might have reached an apex on the most recent US CPI release.
US 10-year yields remain calm in a range, but if they take out 4.09%, there’s going to be absolute bedlam. US Initial Claims and GDP were strong this week and imagine what things are going to look like when manufacturing snaps back.
TNX trade ideas
Yields topping soon and resuming trend toward ZERO$TNX is approaching historical resistance... expecting trend resumiption once local top is in...
Bonds rolling over but what's up with $TNX?#Bond #yield has been moving well lately, but today. SO FAR, they're rolling over, and some hurting more than others.
We've mentioned that steam has been running out for some time. Look @ the RSI negative divergence on almost all of the #yields
6M weakening.
1Yr RSI CRATERING.
2YR hurting & RSI DECIMATED It is at major support.
TVC:TNX is the lone wolf. Must keep👀on this one to see how it plays out.
See data posted. Did the 10Yr peak already?
$TNX broke downtrend, rates likely keep goingLong ago we mentioned that #FederalReserve had decision to make.
They either chose the Economy or the Markets.
They CANNOT do both.
It's obvious, plus they keep repeating, with rate hikes where their mindset is.
Media states that Wall St thinks that #interestrate will be cut.
BUT
Looking @ short term rates, they look primed to go higher.
#bonds
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The 1Yr is moving very nicely.
BUT
The 2YR picked up a lot lately. It's closing in on the 1Yr.
🚨🚨🚨
The 10Yr #yield is cranking & broke downtrend. #TNX
How much higher can things go before they break?
We've also mentioned that extreme #currency devaluation has bullish consequences
(many countries are an example of this)
Dilemma
EDIT:
We're still forming higher highs so market correction likely not there. This tends to happen once the inverted yield curve fixes itself.
2Yr Peak during great financial crisis was 5.28
10Yr Peak was 4.32
#GOLD #silver CRYPTOCAP:BTC
TNXSolid close in 10 year yields last quarter. This chart is still the scariest one out there imo. As long as 10 year yields are above 2018 highs (~3.25), I don't see the Fed cutting rates. If anything, I believe they will continue to raise. Part of the narrative is that equities have increased so much this year due to the Fed slowing down rate increases. I'm just asking, what happens if they don't stop raising?
10%-12% for 10Y paper in H2'23 is imminent.One of the properties of extended waves 5 is that they start really slow. The disbelief in the nascent uptrend is so strong that the counter-trend sentiment just keeps rising as the trend develops and matures. Only toward the middle of the trend the public begins to realize that something's wrong.. and then all happens.
$TNX looks interesting on the Weekly ChartThe consensus is LOWER #interestrates
(I mean, they have been around 3.2ish)
Every time the 10Yr #yield was in this same situation it FOLDED.
Easier to see on daily.
However, something looks lil different this time around.
Can't make it out on the daily.
Let's see the weekly chart.
Hmmm...
Not yet, but gaining momentum...
If the 10 Yr yield starts pumping this could be good for $DXY.
Likely mean the inverse for precious metals like #Silver & #Gold.
#stocks #crypto
$TNX in range and a comparison of Yields around 2008#Yield is moving well today.
1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr.
$TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08.
Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago?
10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least.
The last picture shows the highs of the 2 yr and 10 yr right before the crash of 2008.
Interesting that almost everything happened in the month of June. Even when it was 3 different years! Hmmm.
***
Now let's compare what yields did around the 2008 crash.
***
The 2yr yield peaked @ 5.28% and it did it much earlier. It was almost 2 years before the 10Yr yield did. The 2yr also formed a lower higher in 2007 (5.13%) & peaked in June 2008, much lower @ 3%, before the real crash happened.
The 10yr didn't peak until June 2008. way after short term rates peaked. We also see that the peak was around 4.3%.
Stocks peaked in Oct 07 and the lower high was May 2008.
***
We are seeing something similar today. However, IMO everything happens faster today. We're keeping a close eye on lower highs in short term yields and we could be seeing this now. Time will tell.
This data is just like other data. Just past info to help weather the current & future storms.
Yields are mixed but all point higher, history repeating?🚨🚨🚨
Going to make a stink about #yield again.
Short term #interestrates have been creeping higher.
Let's👀@ #bond Yields.
6M = holding steady, trading slightly higher.
BUT,
1Yr = BROKE RECENT HIGHS. It's at resistance but shows momentum.
2Yr = Closing in on TSX:SVB closure high. This is where #banks began to break down.
10Yr TVC:TNX @ current downtrend is being tested. Break through is good.
HUH?
Higher = good short term for #stocks. Markets have a history of breaking AFTER rates begin to trade lower and yield curve normalizes. This can take a year or so.
Not saying markets will be pumping for a year. Just saying this is historical. We could be setting up for much more upside but with RISK.
We posted on the 2008 yield crisis some time ago.
TNX To Infinity and Beyond..TNX is poised for its next major break out. Just in time for seasonal market corrections associated with the upcoming end of summer and fall declines. We may have some more consolidation in this monthly range, but 5.5 % is certainly the next stop.
Yields are beginning to push higher, not good for marketsYellow arrows show the #bank crisis.
Short term #yields are higher or at the same level.
They are showing signs of wanting to push higher again.
The 2Yr is lower & looks as if it's curling a bit higher.
The TVC:TNX or 10Yr is consistently lower & looks to be weakening.
Wall St may finally be listening to #Fed & more hikes coming.
1 & 2Yr Yields holding, $TNX & rest have been weakeningShort term #yield is still weakening
The 3M & 6M peaked not long ago & been going lower.
The 1Yr & 2Yr are holding area when the #banks began to fail.
The 10Yr peaked Oct 2022, last year.
TVC:TNX has been lower & looks 2b headed lower at the moment.
We'll see what the #FederalReserve does but Wall St thinks #fed is done with rates or @ CLOSE to the end of hikes
Yields are diverging from SHORT TERM $TNX6 Month is still pumping & more overbought.
This is the only one still moving higher atm.
Serious divergence!
1Y surpassed the #bank collapse highs .
2Yr Stopped 50bps away from highs.
10Yr forming lower highs (the top was put in LAST YEAR), down channel & the long trend has been broken.
10 Year Yields versus SPX10 Year Yields versus SPX
Historical EPIC 40 year channel BROKEN.
If 10 year yields can hold their ground versus US equities...
This sets up a macro environment where silver can thrive.
#gold#silver#spx
10 year yields and oil10 year yields VERY CLOSE to a BREAKOUT.
Expecting #CrudeOil to go bonkers.
It wasn't pretty for US stocks when this happens.
#poleflag #inflation #recession #gold #silver
Death Cross on the 10-YearInterest rates have been a major driver of stock prices since early 2022, and today something noteworthy happened with the key 10-year Treasury note.
The first pattern on this yield chart is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) marked in red. On Wednesday, it slid below the 200-day SMA (in green) for the first time since November 2021. Commonly known as a “death cross,” this relationship is often viewed as an indicator of long-term direction.
Next, you have two falling trendlines. TNX climbed after breaking the first trendline in February. This month, however, it’s stayed below a similar trendline.
Third, a 50 percent retracement of the drop in March is roughly at 3.61. Notice how the yield has remained below that level, which potentially confirms the downward movement.
Traders could next eye roughly 3.25. It was the low in April and an old high from October 2018.
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Yields ready to skyrocket. 10% is three months away.Triangles in wave 4 often yield powerful waves 5 that almost always take less that 50% of the time spent in wave 4. We spent 6.5 months in Wave 4, which means that wave 5 should be completed by end of August at the latest.
Conservatively, I forecast 10Y reaching 10% by end Sept. In fact, it can happen as early as mid. July.
Not only 10Y Treasuries gets to 10%, but at the same time:
- SPX will land below 1500,
- EURUSD will crash to 0.75
- USDJPY will fall to ~100
10Y at 10% by Aug-Sept '23I am not kidding at all about 10Y at 10%.
Three months from now 10Y will get there in an extended wave 5, and short term yields will spike to 15-20%.
10 yr back to 3.910 year loves double bottoms..
You can see one forming here under yellow resistance.
I hight the with red circles. You can also see the double bottom on the rsi
TNXMonthly view of the 10 year. Only half way through this month, but 10 year notes are turning red to green on the monthly today. Holding 2018 highs as well as 9 ema so far this month. So far just looking like a bull flag in a very strong uptrend. I mentioned oil the other day. If oil prices keep rising, inflation will keep increasing, which means rates will keep rising. Consensus now seems to be that a rate increase in May will be the last increase. Unless we get a breakdown on this chart this month, I'll take the opposite end of that bet.
#yields - $TNX at important juncture1Yr is still holding better than 2yr & 10Yr
IMO Still look like they're fighting to bottom, HOWEVER, TVC:TNX has a history of breaking current support level.
Monthly RSI looks 2b weakening.
While in theory falling #yield is good for #TECH it historically has NOT been good for #stocks
TNXTVC:TNX 10 year-treasury note at an area of value. We probably need it lower for a bull market to play play out. At this moment it's bearish, and hope that it's moving in the right direction to allow for a roaring bull market.
