10Y at 10% by Aug-Sept '23I am not kidding at all about 10Y at 10%.
Three months from now 10Y will get there in an extended wave 5, and short term yields will spike to 15-20%.
TNX trade ideas
10 yr back to 3.910 year loves double bottoms..
You can see one forming here under yellow resistance.
I hight the with red circles. You can also see the double bottom on the rsi
TNXMonthly view of the 10 year. Only half way through this month, but 10 year notes are turning red to green on the monthly today. Holding 2018 highs as well as 9 ema so far this month. So far just looking like a bull flag in a very strong uptrend. I mentioned oil the other day. If oil prices keep rising, inflation will keep increasing, which means rates will keep rising. Consensus now seems to be that a rate increase in May will be the last increase. Unless we get a breakdown on this chart this month, I'll take the opposite end of that bet.
#yields - $TNX at important juncture1Yr is still holding better than 2yr & 10Yr
IMO Still look like they're fighting to bottom, HOWEVER, TVC:TNX has a history of breaking current support level.
Monthly RSI looks 2b weakening.
While in theory falling #yield is good for #TECH it historically has NOT been good for #stocks
TNXTVC:TNX 10 year-treasury note at an area of value. We probably need it lower for a bull market to play play out. At this moment it's bearish, and hope that it's moving in the right direction to allow for a roaring bull market.
Treasury Yield at Lowest Since When?The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important non-stock indicators because it reflects expectations about the direct of interest rates. That, in turn, can impact growth stocks and the Nasdaq-100.
Today’s chart shows the rapid evolution of the rate environment since the banking crisis emerged in the middle of last month.
First consider the December low of 3.40%. TNX bounced there in February and tried to hold it in March. But yesterday it plowed through that level, ending the session at the low. (It was the lowest close since early September.)
Second, you have the series of lower highs starting on March 14. Combined with the horizontal line at 3.40%, the result could be a descending triangle.
Next, roll back the clock about two months. TNX ripped through a falling trendline after holding 3.40%. It tried to establish a new high above December’s peak but failed. That price action could now look like a failed breakout, with the more recent patterns pointing lower.
This downward movement in yields corresponds to a falling U.S. Dollar and weakening economic data. (Last week’s jobless claims were higher than expected. March manufacturing data missed on Monday, February job openings missed yesterday and ADP’s March private-sector payrolls missed today.)
These points may help confirm a new regime of lower rates and less-hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve.
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AW BOND YIELD\RATE RISE ANALYSIS - Something Big is Coming...This latest count for the 10 YR suggests that interest rates are close to a top and whatever comes next will be significant.
This lines up with my Dow Jones analysis which suggests that we are looking for one more all-time-high before we see the top.
I think the markets will continue to oscillate in a large range over the next several years which will be a result of these types of movements.
I believe that there are certain times during these cutting and raising cycles that will dramatically increase asset prices and see inflation see-saw.
Another factor here will be the amount of currency units that are pumped into the system during these times.
It seems as though when the FED tightens, they still appear to be expanding their balance sheet effectively pumping the gas and brakes simultaneously.
In my opinion, this could potentially lead to hyperinflation down the road which may kick off once this expanding 5-Wave move finally ends.
According to the AriasWave methodology, the historical CPI chart also supports the hyperinflation theory, but it could still be a while before we see any signs.
Some analysts suggest that we are actually seeing deflation, but I don't know whether or not that is true as there could be periods of both during these the next few cycles.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
$TNX & short term yields breaking support levelsWhile the #fed reserve has made it clear they're not stopping rate increases yet, #bonds yields put a top in days ago. $TNX actually did it some time ago!
We noticed certain sectors, like insurance, began lowering premiums done time ago. Did they know something was start didn't?
Small community banks are getting crushed and if rates crater it may alleviate the balance sheets of those remaining.
Anyway, the fed tends to overdo everything they do. Many are calling recession or something much harsher. Time will tell but banks going busy is not a good sign.
$TNX is weakening, no longer holder better vs short term Yields$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now?
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The 2yr & 1Yr are holding.
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Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go.
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In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields.
It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO will happen MUCH FASTER. Perhaps 6 months tops, no pun intended. :)
#stocks #cryptotrading #rates #interestrates
$TNX Bouncing nicely as are shorter maturity YieldsWas kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields.
The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare.
The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates.
We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close to support levels.
So the bounce we are getting today is not unexpected. Furthermore, the gap from two days ago attracted and it is filled today.
$TNX was also oversold.
Yields from here are tough to gauge but likely go a bit higher.
The masterplanSo here's the final master plan for the next few months. It will materialize to the letter and there will be no laughs when 10Y hits 10% at the end of an extended wave 5.
The question is - why do I believe that wave 5 will be extended? There is no numerically or analytically certain way to tell this with 100% confidence. I can bet my life on yields going higher, but going as high as 10% is just a speculation based on my subjective assessment of how much the market still believes in "low yields forever".
If it happens (and I'm ~90% certain about that), the stocks will react viciously. Remember that AAPL still trades at 0.62% dividend yield today. The fresh MBA-graduated fund managers, contemplating 10Y at 10% will have nothing to do but sell the stocks in order to at least partially bring the stock yields closer to the new yield baselines.
The market is designed in such way that it will keep moving the yields higher until everyone is forced to accept the idea of the secular high-yield world. Sometimes the adoption of the new market trend comes gradually during waves 1, 3 and 5. But quite often the old beliefs are so strong that the market participants only part with them during wave 5. In that case the magnitude of price action far exceeds even the most audacious targets. Considering how complacently low the yields in stocks are, I think this will be the case this time.
The selling in the stocks department will be extremely violent. AAPL may be worth 20..30 at the end of the sell-off. Other stocks will follow for sure.
As usual, no one sees this coming (as it should be), and no one alive has experienced the market action of such magnitude and speed.
Yields are CRATERING - WHy?The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there.
It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets.
This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much.
The 1Yr is off almost 3.26%
The 2Yr is off 5.01
The 10Yr is off 5.33%
This is causing more of an inversion to the yield curve.
On other news, banks faltering isn't helping the case for stability or easing the fears of #economy being in turmoil.
𝟭𝟬-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TNX Monthly. Moving higherAfter months of consolidation the move higher looks to be starting 👀
As a reminder, this broke out of a 40+ year down trend. Higher rates may be here for longer than you think ...
$TLT $ZN_F $ZB_F $TYX $DXY $ES_F $SPY $VIX $QQQ #Tech #Bonds #Rates #Trading 📈
Longer term Yields outperform short term, VIX rangeboundThis week will decide what happens for the intermediate
1yr kind of stagnant
BUT
2yr #yield is RIPPING!
$TNX 10 yr is RUNNING > NOT GOOD
$VIX lower high but not lower low
Again, this week will determine the month of March
BULLS beginning to lose steam
#stocks $DJI $NDX $SPX
Long - Term Elliott Wave Count The U.S 10 - year Treasury yields from March 2020 are forming an extended Elliott wave impulse pattern.
Weekly Stochastic suggest the rally could continue for several weeks.
Watch for a bullish crossover of the MACD lines for confirmation.
Mark
$TNXThis megaphone pattern on the 10 year T Note is interesting. It's definitely something I'm monitoring especially if you're in the equity market.
10yr Rising wedge or 10 yr, falling wedge on TLT 🤔.
Just like the TLT retested it's wedge breakout, the 10year yield on friday retested its rising wedge support. Technically from here we should see a pullback. There is a gap at around 3.82 that would be my first target on a gap close .. only if we break below 3.8 would I consider it a trend reversal..
BTC bottom -Last two times TNX touched this resistanceWe touched it today, coincidence? Doubt it. Could mark another major bottom.
AW 10Y Bond Yields - The Large Pullback Ahead Means Recession...In this video I talk about the bigger picture going back to 1150AD and how I have always anticipated this move up in rates.
See down below all videos that are related to this idea.
We are in a correction phase of Wave 2 in Bond Yields.
This type of expansion means that they are preparing themselves for a recession even though they don't mention it.
They know.
The FED must always keep the public distracted with the inflation narrative.
The truth is that they have to keep the party going therefore they will use manipulated data to justify their actions.
This is all done through compartmentalization which is used by governments and the military industrial complex.
This is also done to the public to make sure you are happy even though you are losing everything.
Sound familiar? The truth is they have been slowly preparing you for the future.
Don't think that it's coming because it's been here the whole time.
#BoilingFrog.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
10 yr Approaching 3.9 resistance.. went from 3.3 to 3.9 and the market didn't blink.
I added the white trendlines to illustrate as long as we hold support and break over 3.9 them it's a double bottom and I'm bullish until 4.200
10 year yields linear quarterly chartMASSIVE CONFIRMED BREAKOUT FOR 10 YEAR YIELDS IN Q3 2022.
{insert rocket ships on oil charts}
#fintwit #inflation #recession #crudeoil
1Yr broke recent highs - Long term this could be dangerousShort rates flying (up to 1Yr #yield) Already broke previous highs
Compare to 2 (slightly lower than previous highs) & 10 $TNX (chart tells story)
#Market trading = #inflation higher vs #Fed expectation of 2%
Markets not expecting recession or lower inflation
NO soft landing - party on
But that'll mean eventual HAWKISH FED
Dilemma
#stocks or #economy, only 1
