Weak 2Y Auction sends yields to new highsFor more background info on the auction see chart. Demand evaporated during auction as implied by When-Issued. Note we have a 5Y auction coming up in half an hour.
US02Y trade ideas
2y yield retracement to key level - Sell $ZTOh please.... 2y Note at 0,42 % .... I understand there might be a short term short squeeze which pushes the yield down to this level, all we have to do is use the move to start building outright short positions again.
2 year YIELD - saucer and long way upsaucer formation created in recent months opens road to discount high inflation
US 2 Year Treasury Yield Base Count - Ready to Pop> US 10 Year Yield rising
> US 30 Year Yield rising
> Bonds selling off pushing yields up
> Wyckoff base count developing
A Macro Thread on YieldsThe bond market can be quite tricky.
In terms of yield curves consider the following:
Bear steepening
Bull Steepening
Bear Flattening
Bull Flattening
> Steepening (the premium for longer debt is growing)
> Flattening (the premium is shrinking)
For example, bull steepening, which is exactly what we have been doing this since the start of this year:
The short-end of the yield curve (typically driven via fed funds rate) falls faster than the long-end, steepening the yield curve.
The long end of the yield curve is driven by a wide range of factors, including - economic growth, expectations, inflation expectations, and supply and demand of longer-maturity Treasury securities and etc
📍 A bull steepener
↳ is a shift in the yield curve caused by falling interest rates - rising bond price - hence the term “bull”.
📍 A bull flattener
↳ is the opposite of a steepener - a situation of rising bond prices which causes the long-end to fall faster than the short-end.
📍 Bear steepness and flatteners
↳ are caused by falling bond prices across the curve
A bull steepener is a change in the yield curve caused by short-term interest rates falling faster than long-term rates, resulting in higher spread between the two rates. A bull steepener occurs when the Fed reserve is expected to lower interest rates. This expectation causes consumers and investors to become optimistic about the economy and bullish about prices in the stock market above the short-term.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
What Yield? 2-Year Treasury Lows May Signal It's Bitcoin Time Several stakeholders in the crypto market see a lack of yields coming from traditional markets as a sign cryptocurrency has a place in uncertain times.
“We are moving into a period of stagflation – stagnant growth and inflation – which creates a steepening of yield curves in the fixed income world,” said Chris Thomas, head of digital assets for Swissquote Bank.
Indeed, U.S. Treasury yields have dropped in 2020 – the two-year maturity is at its lowest yield in over 10 years.
“I have a customer leaving bonds for bitcoin. I look at that as very bullish,” said Henrik Kugelberg, a Sweden-based over-the-counter crypto trader. “Bonds that are supposed to be the safest bet there is to actually make a buck on your invested money now all of a sudden seems less attractive than bitcoin.”
Weekly Downside for 2 yr yield Short 01:57:49 (UTC) Tue May 19, Weekly Downside for 2 yr yield Short 01:57:49 (UTC) Tue May 19,
Treasury market sends bearish signals as stocks riseUS 2-Yr and 5-Yr Yields hit record low as futures investors anticipate negative rates.
www.ft.com
Who is right? The bond market or stock market?
US 2YR TREASURY BONDNice wedge formation has occurred, taking into account current situation expect some retracement
US Bond RED FLAG!!We have already confirmed a recession! Bonds market will be tumbled soon. So sit tight, and save money for essentials, limit spending, because your job will be in danger.
Good Luck and Stay safe.
US 2Y yield indicates further FED cuts are almost guaranteedThe FED has already cut the rates by 50 bps in an "emergency meeting" last week. The US02Y indicates that that was not enough and more cuts are needed. If history is any indication, we're looking at another cut of 50 bps or even 75 bps very soon .
US02Y Nothing serious, just the 2 Year Yield Government Bonds forming higher highs at the top, at the low point of volatility.
US 2Y Government bonds yield trendWill the past be a good indicator of the future in that case?
Are we going to see negative rates in the US?
Big debt crisis incoming?
Interesting days are coming.Interesting days are coming. In my analysis, I indicated that there could be a 50 basis point cut in interest rates. Although intervention could have been anticipated, early in the morning, it surprised everyone. Let's look at the analysis. Apparently it did not affect market pricing. We have reached the technical target price. This is 0.611% (The chart in the analysis is the yield curve for two-year bonds) This means that the market expects such a rate for the next two years. In other words, we can say that Future is a curve of interest. In my opinion, the exchange rate can now calm down. A back adjustment may be made to the 1% level of the interest rate band. After that, the market greed may start again. The market may price interest rates close to 0% (0.1%).
reposimilar pattern with rates waterfall as russia collapse. This time it is too much gov't debt/bond crisis. Stock market rally to the moon after this event, check Oct 12/98 for what Nasdaq/S&p.... did
Dollar interest rate cut by 50 basis points.Dollar interest rate cut by 50 basis points. 2020.március.18. www.cmegroup.com My analysis charts the market expectations of a dollar cut in interest rates. The reason I like to use the US02Y chart is because it gives you a much clearer idea of what the market is doing. With a fractal analysis, the future movement of the interest rate path becomes foreseeable in weeks. CME TOOLS also confirms my chart analysis as a percentage. What do I expect? The market continues to move ahead with interest rate cut expectations. Market expectations could reach 0.6% for the FED Open Market Committee meeting on March 18. Of course, the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points. Up to this point, the dollar will weaken. EURUSD is rising. Then there is relaxation. The dollar can gain a lot of strength. But this will apparently be temporary. Because the market is once again taking out the "original lesson" and playing for further interest cuts. From here on, the situation may be more interesting, but later ........
Interest cut?Interest cut? Let's look at this chart. It can be seen that the current dollar interest rate and the two-year forward interest rates the market is slowly losing their relationship. The market is already forecasting two 25 basis points of interest rate cuts.
ridethepig | US02Y Market Commentary 2020.02.25Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call:
" Selling life as expensive as possible "
Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is condemned to death, it is quite understandable for those wanting to sell Bonds are the highest price possible. Generally speaking, such a telegraphed move is much stranger to the novice than an experienced:
Virus worries and Japan confirming recession is trigger a move in vol, and it makes the US05Y-US02Y attractive. Treasuries will outperform for the coming months, Equities will remain soft until later in the year.
Hesitant to build full sized positions till we have a technical break as we are aggressively outguessing the next move from FED. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming via likes and comments! Jump in with your charts below!
