Dollar interest rate cut by 50 basis points.Dollar interest rate cut by 50 basis points. 2020.március.18. www.cmegroup.com My analysis charts the market expectations of a dollar cut in interest rates. The reason I like to use the US02Y chart is because it gives you a much clearer idea of what the market is doing. With a fractal analysis, the future movement of the interest rate path becomes foreseeable in weeks. CME TOOLS also confirms my chart analysis as a percentage. What do I expect? The market continues to move ahead with interest rate cut expectations. Market expectations could reach 0.6% for the FED Open Market Committee meeting on March 18. Of course, the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points. Up to this point, the dollar will weaken. EURUSD is rising. Then there is relaxation. The dollar can gain a lot of strength. But this will apparently be temporary. Because the market is once again taking out the "original lesson" and playing for further interest cuts. From here on, the situation may be more interesting, but later ........
US02Y trade ideas
ridethepig | US02Y Market Commentary 2020.02.25Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call:
" Selling life as expensive as possible "
Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is condemned to death, it is quite understandable for those wanting to sell Bonds are the highest price possible. Generally speaking, such a telegraphed move is much stranger to the novice than an experienced:
Virus worries and Japan confirming recession is trigger a move in vol, and it makes the US05Y-US02Y attractive. Treasuries will outperform for the coming months, Equities will remain soft until later in the year.
Hesitant to build full sized positions till we have a technical break as we are aggressively outguessing the next move from FED. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming via likes and comments! Jump in with your charts below!
FED interest rate cut refilled.FED interest rate cut refilled. If you look at the forward interest rates on 2-year US bonds, the market has been pushing for further interest rate cuts in recent days. The figure shows that, technically, the Fed's benchmark interest rate starts at 0.96%. Therefore, I believe the dollar may start to weaken in the coming weeks.
US BONDS 2 Y yield ut W ideaUS BONDS 2 Y yield ut W idea
"Every breath you take and every move you make
Every bond you break, every step you take, I'll be watching you
Every single day and every word you say
Every game you play, every night you stay, I'll be watching you
Oh, can't you see you belong to me
How my poor heart aches with every step you take
Every move you make, and every vow you break
Every smile you fake, every claim you stake, I'll be watching you"
US2y to stay below 1.500The chart patterns indicated that the US2Y yield is going to break and stay below 1.500.
The implications are that the spread (or difference) between US10Y minus US2Y is getting smaller. This, in turn, is suggesting reversion or a correction in US Indices towards the mean
You can see the initial chart pattern A, which led to the corresponding drop to point 1, and chart pattern B, which led to drop point 2
I think the US2Y will hold at 1.418 and then fall to 1.365 as the maximum potential drop
Keep an eye on rates!!I am looking for a bear steepner at this time. Keep an eye on 10y yields. We may see kumo breakout soon. This will impact a few things.
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Comparing US02Y vs US10YBy decrementing US10Y from US02Y we see the actual breakout so to speak.
Volatile. Already touched the previous Global Resistance with a huge spike and most likely next 2 to 3 years are going to be volatile as well coming to an end around Nov 2021 - the point that looks pretty similar to what we already saw in 1991 | 2001 | 2008 and notice since 2008 the move down wasn't that significant comparing to the previous two(1991-1993 and 2001-2003) thank's to US QE I guess? We might actually end this trend or maybe just maybe from 2021 to 2023 going below the ZERO which you can comment the possibility of that happens and how do you prepare yourself ;-)
According to this time analysis in Nov 2021 "the disaster" is going to be at the peak.