2YR yield in Ascending triangle formationNext Breakout in July around FOMC Meeting, if Fed cuts then yields expected to fall and breakout below 4.7% support level. Long USD Bonds would be preferred direction.
US02Y trade ideas
We have a Grey Rhino here - Markets are driven by ignoranceThe US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs.
We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because when they start charging, we can never outrun them.
In this market context, we face a big, obvious problem that investors completely ignore until it becomes a crisis. It's different from a "black swan," which is a rare and unpredictable event.
When we recognize that there are problems many do not understand, we have already won half the battle.
U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures & Options
Ticker: ZB
Minimum fluctuation:
1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25
2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
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US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%.The latest minutes had more hawkish undertones than the market was expecting.
"Participants at the meeting assessed it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably to 2%."
"Various participants mentioned willingness to tighten policy further should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate."
Though it largely repeated rhetoric used by FOMC officials after the latest policy meeting, US stocks still weakened while the dollar and Government bond yields strengthened
It is unlikely to make a material difference to the long term outlook for US policy, as is reflected by little change in US interest rate futures.
The Hawkish undertones can be justified given the lack of the April CPI data before the minutes were recorded.
The stock market fell during regular trading hours as the most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates. After fighting for direction for most of the session, the S&P 500 fell sharply as several Fed officials expressed concern about the extent to which policy is constraining the economy - but the minutes also indicated policy "was regarded as restrictive. Treasuries were under pressure, with shorter maturities underperforming.
US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%. The dollar rose, weakening the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
The INFAMOUS Blow Off Top!!! US10Y US02Y $TLTThe indicators from this chart which backtested to call the 1990s Gulf War recession, the Thai Baht, the 1998 LTCM, the 2000 dotcom bubble, the great financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic all before they officially happened. It is calling for whatever this next crisis is going to be called. I placed MOAB or mother of all speculative bubbles for the crisis holding name. I am sure the talking heads on TV who never saw this coming will give their two cents about how great everything is. Clearly, we have issues in society and those issues are being pasted over on the market with money printing.
This isn't doom-bear BS, it's just an indicator that has front-run every single one of these black-swan events.
The best way to play this is to reduce broad market exposure and sell into the big up days. Look at defensive plays like bonds, gold, and US dollars. Now that doesn't mean you can't stay net long, for that consider option spreads, but this tells you to clearly lower your exposure.
NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:GLD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:IEF AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ
US02Y Next Move The matter still requires deeper analysis, despite the absence of wide-ranging movement today. The recent decline in bonds did not help boost gold prices. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at a support level of about 4.8% on the one-dimensional chart and may look to rise. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy, gold may struggle to rise. However, if we begin to receive signals indicating that the Federal Reserve may wish to continue lowering interest rates this year, gold may be more optimistic.
We should monitor the level of two-year and ten-year bonds, the direction of the dollar index, and geopolitical aspects to be clear about the direction of gold.
When the 2s/10s Chart Goes Red The Market is Dead $US02Y $US10YAs you can see there is a strong correlation between this predictive chart algo and the bond market steepening predicting the recession before the reason why. Now maybe this time is different. Maybe the massive stimulus during covid will give a false positive here. I just doubt it.
US RATES 2YEARS YIELD TREND UPUs rates is in up pressure... for moment its upward in direction to higher rates not down.... lets wait next weeks!
U.S Yields vs. Alternative stocks #Tesla #VWS #ORSTEDHigh U.S. Yields vs. Alternative stocks such as NASDAQ:TSLA #Tesla OMXCOP:VWS #Vestas OMXCOP:ORSTED #Ørsted OMXSTO:PCELL #Powercell.
Thesis is yields down, alternatives up.
Nasdaq, Semiconductors, Natural Gas, Bitcoin: FOMC reviewDiscussing the sell off in semis today.
Potential reversal in Nat gas
Bitcoin & crypto selloff.
FOMC tomorrow: No rate cut.
Will Powell come out hawkish tomorrow? its looking likely he will based off of the BOJ rate hike. Oil surging doesn't help the dovish case.
Commodities breaking out doesn't help the inflation fight.
US02Y/US10Y - Market tops happen when chart is going downHow long do we have before the next crash?
How many months until we've reached the market top? Hopefully not yet!
My estimate is a top in June 2024, when the FED starts cutting rates.
I am still waiting for a credit crunch event Note RSI level once have come to the 30 level while the fed hikes. I would not hold stocks positions right now.
US 2 year yield bonds vs copper and gold miners .... US 2 year yield bonds vs copper and gold miners .... strong correlation for finding bottoms and tops in bond yields
US02Y spike = BTC nuke short termIn short term, If US02Y spikes then BTC nukes a bit. So expecting a nuke by tomorrow or anytime soon.
BTC to 35K is still in play with previous cycles retracements to 0.318.
Huge divergenceSo when we examine this relationship closely its clear that SPX does not nessisarily follow the dictates of the inverted yield curve (2y / 10y). However, the general adherence to trends has clearly diverged in a big way. We can look back to January of 2023 and see a similar divergence where SPX finaly reacted with a violent move down into March of 2023. I think we need to watch very closely for a similar reaction. The market has once again priced for perfection, we all know its not perfect. Employment, GDP and earnings are still supporting higher rates, and unless the current administration has real influence over the Fed - there will be no rate cutting in the near future. Still the elimination of QT may even have a larger affect on the markets. Stay tuned, be safe out there.
Massive drop in Stocks is imminent!The parallels to the economic downturn of 2007/08 are evident!
Monitoring the 2-year Treasury yields will help us anticipate the onset of a recession.
A significant drop in yields is imminent.
US02Y 2% H1 2023Downward curving spiral channel. Equities crash when we hit the top of the resistance line. Likely stock market crash Q1/Q2 2023 given rate of increase. Short-term consolidation period expected Q2/Q3 '21 before final rip. GG
Yields - Possible Bullish Quarterly ShiftObserving yields to see if we start breaking above swing highs. We have closed above daily highs & imbalances. No body closure market structure shift just yet.
US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield 📌💵💰Daily chart.
Resistance zone.
It remains to be seen the position of the FED, whether or not to lower the rate?
Make up your mind.
2YEAR STOPPED AT .618 well now The chart is that of the 2 year we seem to stop right at .618 how about that ?? what next see RSI chart above I would not be short the 2 year
This Time is Different (so far)An inversion between the 2yr UST yield and the Federal Funds effective rate normally does not exceed -1%. When that happens, it's an indication the bond market is not getting the reaction from the Fed that it "expects" (or maybe it is a "want"). Inversions of this degree have normally been unkind to the equity market, but that is clearly not the case here in late 2023. Something to keep an eye on as the calendar turns to 2024.
