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US Government Bonds 2 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 2 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 2 YR Yield

US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield

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US02Y trade ideas

FOMC nothing to see hereFOMC has raised interest rates for 9 times in a row. The next Fed interest rate decision will be publicly announced on Wednesday 5/3/23 at 2pm. The market consensus is expecting FOMC to raise interest rates for the 10th time in a row. FOMC rate hikes: 3/16/22 +0.25% = 0.50% 5/4/22 +0.50% = 1.00% 6/15/22 +0.75% = 1.75% 7/27/22 +0.75% = 2.50% 9/21/22 +0.75% = 3.25% 11/2/22 +0.75% = 4.00% 12/14/22 +0.50% = 4.50% 2/1/23 +0.25% = 4.75% 3/22/23 +0.25% = 5.00% 5/3/23 +0.25% = 5.25% The collapses of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in the history of the United States. The collapse of Washington Mutual during the 2007–2008 financial crisis was the largest. On July 6th 2022, the 2s / 10s yield curve inverted, and it has widened its gap since then. An inversion of the 2-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession is likely to follow in one to two years.
TVC:US02Y
by Options360
2
2 yr yield risingBanks reported profits, bank fears are gone, yields rising, lol. Aside from my index futures indicators (which predicted a red day anyways), rising yields are causing the market to drop. The whole pump this week was about "disinflation", but yields were down on bank fears so now the reverse play, lol. Gold and cryptos down along with everything besides financials, lol. Makes sense if you think about it, but not something I would have predicted. These bond yield adjustments usually take a couple of days, so bearish for Monday
TVC:US02Y
by hungry_hippo
US02Y about to break its 1W MA50 and start a mega stock rally?The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was initiated. This was at the end of the U.S. - China trade war. The 1W RSI also shows that we are closer to that break-out than ever. Will a closing below the 1W MA50 give investors finally what they've been waiting for? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US02YShort
by TradingShot
What’s next for Gold & S&P 500?Having covered Gold & the Equity Index last week, this week we will look at how we could leverage both to trade on the move we’re watching! Quite a happening market we first covered Gold two weeks ago. Firstly, the interest rates market had a sizeable correction, with the 10Y-2Y yield now trading at close to -0.45% instead of the -1% range just 3 weeks ago. Secondly, with FOMC out of the way, we have some clarity on what the Fed thinks of the current bank contagion episode as well as how markets reacted to the Fed’s statement. With all these in mind, one thing we want to point out is the relationship between yield curve inversions across the different tenures of the curve. Comparing the past 2 episodes of yield curve inversion on the shorter and longer end of the curve, we note a few things here. Firstly, the 10Y-2Y inversion generally leads the 2Y-3M inversion. Secondly, the past 2 times when both sections of the curve were inverted, we saw a significant sell-off in equities happening soon after. Thirdly, the inversions also marked the start of the next leg up for gold. With peak inversion likely to pass for the 10Y-2Y curve and 2Y-3M inversion at the all-time low now, we see some potential to buy Gold and sell Equity Indices, as we’re raised over the past 2 articles! When we use the S&P500 Futures Contract and the Gold Futures contract to view the ratio of the S&P500 / Gold, this ‘Selling’ point becomes clearer! With the past 2 periods falling 59% and 69% respectively and lasting more than 700 days, this trade could take a while to play out, but the risk to reward seems attractive. As to the hypotheses of why this relationship might exist, it could reside in the idea that abrupt rate cuts likely merely take place in a time of financial distress, hence the selloff in equities and flight to safe-haven assets like gold. When rates fall off, the non-yielding assets like Gold would start to look more attractive to yield-hunting investors, which could have added fuel to the Gold rally, too. Taking a conservative target of 35% lower from the current ratio level of 2, we position a short in the S&P 500 / Gold ratio by selling 1 S&P 500 Futures and buying 1 Gold Futures, at the current price of 1980 for CME April 2023Gold Futures (GCJ3) and 4010 for the CME June 2023 (ESM3 ) S&P 500 Futures, the notional value of the position for the long & short leg is almost equal at; Long GCJ3: 1980*100 = 198,000 Short ESM3: 4010 * 50 = 200,500 Setting up such a spread trade requires some monitoring of the difference in notional value to ensure that the position is properly hedged. Each 0.25-point move in the ESM3 contract is equal to 12.5 USD while a 0.1-point move in the GCJ3 contract is equal to 10 USD. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is much lower. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:US02YShort
by inspirante
US02Y: BOND MELTDOWN / 4.00% CROSS / MACD CONVERGENCE / RSIDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a simple MACRO ANALYSIS on current bond market meltdown where the US02Y dropped nearly 25% within FIVE TRADING SESSIONS. POINTS: 1. US02Y deviation is simple & marked at every 1% difference as bonds rise and fall within the same range percentage therefore it has a rubber band like price action relationship with it's lowest 1% points. 2. Overlapping Orange Line represents ES1! a US Market Future. 3. Dotted Green Lines represent continuous downward momentum in past Bear Markets (2002 & 2008). 4. Bubbles overlapping dotted green lines represent initial break of supporting bond percentage %. IMO: In my opinion the most concerning factor to take into consideration when it comes to current bond positioning is the STEEP RISE IN PERCENTAGE especially when the overall US market momentum is tied to BOND PERCENTAGE during both RISES & FALLS & the STEEPER THE INCLINE THE STEEPER THE DECLINE can become. MACD: Notice a complete meltdown of Bonds when MACD confirms convergence to MEDIAN & eventually breaks past median and falls into into negative territory. RSI: Notice that unlike in other recessions RSI levels have seen more consistent exposure to MEDIAN of 50. But as of lately from a MACRO perspective that is not the case as we have seen current RSI levels linger around 70 or above in EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. SCENARIO #1: In a very BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through a complete free fall. SCENARIO #2: In a less BEARISH scenario we come to see BONDS PERCENTAGE go through an extended consolidation phase with PERCENTAGE LINGERING ABOVE 4%. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:US02Y
TVC:US02YShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
US02Y is on a breaking point. Great news for stocks!The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test! Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that was at the bottom of the U.S. - China trade war and sent stocks (black trend-line = S&P500) on a 1 year mega-rally (until the COVID crash). Will we have a repeat? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US02Y
by TradingShot
5
Bond Yield Drops 5% Causing - Gloomy Bank RunOkay by now you heard of the SVB Bank Run -- The US Government Had To Step in -- "To Save The day" -- To make it more ugly the bonds have dropped by -5% -- Only producing +4% per year. -- Meanwhile the head of the US central bank is planning to increase borrowing fees to 6% -- that is 2% more than bond "cashflow" -- Banks that Borrow from the US Central Bank Using Bond "cashflow" are going RED! -- This why you learning trend analysis will help you -- 1-If you want to protect yourself 2-If you want to have a better advantage 3-If you want to learn how to trade well -- Before the bond "cashflow was a cool +4.5% now it dropped to +4% as show in the chart above. You need to learn the how to read the direction of the trend -- study the above chart to see what happened on Monday and how the indicators moved. The 3 indicators used in the chart above -- 1)Momentum 2)DMI 3)Parabolic find these indicators on the trading view platform -- stay tuned for more information.
TVC:US02YShort
by lubosi
$TNX US02Y are CRATERING, Yields falling hardLast week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The belief is that the #fed will stop raising rates due to the the bank closures that are happening. IMO I don't think it'll stop them but MAY slow them down a bit. The Fed Reserve HAS to pick between #economy & #stocks. While the Fed has been friendly to equities and markets in the past its main concern in the US Economy. They also care about the US #dollar.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC