A little currency intervention never hurt anyone..The days following Nov 2 FOMC will be extremely volatile.
US03MY trade ideas
$DXY HAS TOPPED!This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
The Big Short. $DxyThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
$Dxy is gonna fall now like a rock.Bye bye 👋 😘.
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
$DXY $USD 03M/10USy Curving.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Yield Goes Down $Dxy Goes Down.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Yield Curve Inversion Imminent (3M/10Y)Well, it has happened again!
We of course see the 2yr/10yr yield curve inversion:
It has been like this for some time. However, all I hear is: “But this time it is different!”
The U.S. curve has inverted before EACH recession since 1955, with a recession following consistently between 6-24 months after. Only one time in this time-frame has this signal failed.
I am hearing now, the only yield inversion that matters is the one the fed is paying attention to.
The 3-Month/10-Year.
Let’s keep in mind the Federal Funds Rate will continue to rise, most likely at a more modest pace and maybe with less regularity.
The point being that the 3month is highly correlated to the federal funds rate:
With the federal funds rate rising, and the 10y dropping we can speculate that even this 'curve comparison of curves' will also invert.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO ME?
Inflation is certainly high, and the federal funds rate rising will reign it in with the sacrifice of jobs & growth
The yield curve impacts businesses & consumers
The higher borrowing cost will impact car loans, and mortgages
We are already getting data indicating a cooling housing market
Many Americans live off plastic credit cards. When the short-term rate rises the US Banks raise the benchmark rates for consumer loans, credit cards and other borrowing products. This increases cost for consumers.
Many banks love this environment. They enjoy the spread. When the yield curve steepens, banks borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates. When the curve is flatter their margins are squeezed, which deters lending.
not full blown recession... yetWatching the 3 mo and 2 year very closely. I think this is an indicator for a recession and not the 2 and 10's because it shows more that the short term risk is outweighing anything mid term.
Everything is is wishy washy with definitions now a days lol but this is going to be the icing on the cake for confirmations.
Looking at the dollar strength we had a little pullback buts its ready to resume higher putting more weakness on emerging markets and currencies and also US equities.
Looking at UVXY and the VIX i think that the 20 range for the vix is a newer normal in this market environment though UVXY is going really low now and almost oversold on the daily compared to where we are at in this little "recovery" thats been taking place.
a lot to digest in the macro perspective and we'll see what the terminal rate will end up being for the FED. exciting times.
That's all folks.
Forecasting when to raise interest rates lastIt appears to be in the early 2% range.
If you can hold out until now, it seems good to invest in other investments.
Global Macro LUXCASH LLCSorry for the long break, I have been attending to numerous other endeavors. At this point, cryptocurrency is down significantly from my long calls and the world seems to be turning upside down. Have no fear, these holds are for life, they are not day trades. Allow me to do a global macro breakdown from my eyes.
I posted this US 3MY chart since this in essence is the key to understanding the economy. Right now, the FED hiked interest rates significantly, this signals a risk off tone, as a result we have seen most risk assets turn down significantly. However, we have seen a bifurcation on the USDJPY pair, which is a bit confusing on first glance, however, we must understand manipulation and capital controls to fully understand the essence of this problem.
With the US CPI at 8+%, this signals the top guys are getting filthy rich, and the rest of the people are getting paid the same and spending more, Economics 101, supply and demand. With the "risk free" (I say "risk free" since there is no such thing, only risk reduced) rate decreasing, we see the big guys dropping their stocks and running to guaranteed yields in treasuries, forex and commodities. Also, let us not forget Ukraine. I will not get onto a spiritual note, for with full disclosure my father is Russian, however this is a global upheaval of all sorts. TO fully understand the events transpiring, we must look no other place but in plain sight. I do not mean to involve religion, but as a firm Christian and believer of many other faiths as well, we must see that demonic entities are able to control supply and demand easily through the most primitive force known to man, Violence.
As a result, a global food shortage is soon upon us, and demons will dine in the daylight upon false idols. What does this "crazy" talk mean to the average person trying to make ends meet? In short, trust your heart, not the world. Our fiat currencies are being violently debased in the name of "peace", but in essence, satan is who wishes to destroy all. So what is my solution? All of my calls are down at this point...
My calls are not money calls, but philosophical calls, for on a long enough time span, all fiat currencies go to 0, period.
Courtesy to economist Keneth Rogoff, who says BTC will go to 0, I ask him, what does a 400 bip Fed Rate do for the homeless and new homeowners? It is easy for him to sit in his Cambridge mansion on a Harvard salary and say this, but I say this for the foster children and disabled of the world. What is my answer?
Simple, HARD MONEY.
I apologize for the rant, but my soul cries when I see the cities of sodom and gomorah rule the world and righteous suffer immensely.
Best,
JML
HKD Peg is being Tested!!!Hong kong: Is anyone paying attention? The HKD peg is being tested.
The Banking bubble in both China & Hongkong are pretty bad. Both China's and Hong Kong's banking assets are at unprecedented levels
China = 417% of GDP
Hong Kong = 962% of GDP
No QT neutralisationThe driver for yesterday's rally was the quarterly refunding estimate of the US Treasury Department, which implied, that balance sheet runoff could be neutralised for a couple weeks by less short term funding ( see SPX Gamma Wrap ).
This drivers has entirely evaporated today ( see chart above ) as yields for short term papers continue to rise again. Something to keep in mind.
3 Month/ 10 Year Yield Inversions and Corresponding Market TopsSince at least 1990, whenever the 3month U.S. Government Bond Yield has risen higher than the 10year Bond, the market top on SPX occurs a short time later. Also, in most cases, whenever the 10year yield has hit the magenta trendline, a 3mo/10yr inversion results within 6-12 months. The 10 year yield is currently above the trendline, implying that we could be 6 to 18 months from an inversion and corresponding stock market top, after which a selloff or recession ensues.
Question. Difference between TVC:US03MY and FRED:DGS3MO.What is the difference between TVC:US03MY and FRED:DGS3MO? I see that they have different sources, but I don’t know what TVC is. Also, their meanings are quite different at some time. At the time of publication this post, these are 0.424 and 0.25. If you are qualified to know the difference, please answer this question in the comments. Thank you.
Yield Curve (3 month T - 10-Year T)Danger above zero. Recessionary bear markets are characterized by danger as defined as by inverted yield curve (above zero). This was the case in previous 3 recessionary bear markets. Bullish so long as not above zero.
US Gov Bond Yield ComparisonUS Bond Yield (and prices) have been an early indicator of future market prices. Eg. US 1yr yield vs US 10 yr yield, if it goes negative, means the world's largest pool of investors (US bond market) believes that near term there will be a financial crisis/market crash/deflationary cycle.
US Bond YieldsPublishing to track the movement of all the various bonds. TVC:MOVE is in the bottom pane.
Buy Bank Stocks now!Rising long term interest rates and low short term rates are very good. Espacially for banks, because they can make profit with it.
Selling longterm credits with higher interest rates and refinance them short term on the market.
Its their business... So it should be now a good idea to invest in bank sectors.
I'm waiting for the dollar to strengthen.The market is starting to settle on current interest rates. It can be seen that the yield on 3-month government bonds has fallen to -0.03% in recent weeks. This opened the door to further interest rate cuts in the negative range. At present, this danger seems to have passed. Short-term government bond yields are starting to return to normal. This could mean that the dollar may strengthen again.
Negative interest pricing has begun.Negative interest pricing has begun. An interesting thing happened in US 3-month government bond yields. For the first time in history, markets have begun to price negative dollar rates. In my previous analyzes I have already drawn attention to this possibility. This has happened today.
The Fed is expecting a negative cut in interest rates.The Fed is expecting a negative cut in interest rates. A week ago, I wrote about the Fed cutting the dollar rate to zero. This is exactly what my fractal analysis showed. It is therefore advisable to continue along this path. Current analysis shows that 3-month US government bond yields are ahead of further decline. This predicts a further cut in the dollar interest rate to the negative interest rate range. I also assume that the dollar will have lower interest rates (negative interest rates higher) than the euro. Therefore, in the shorter term, I expect further strengthening of the euro.
