Yields diverging, Yield Curve over? Bad news for stocks soon?We made a call that bond #yields were topping in early June
6M has cratered since then
1Yr sold off, bounced, pulling back again
2Yr & 10Yr TVC:TNX we stated likely topped long ago
HOWEVER, we recently stated that they looked stronger than the SHORT term #bonds
INTERESTING INDEED
#Yieldcurve coming to an end?
US06MY trade ideas
6 Month Yield HIGHER than when banks collapsed!🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨
6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed!
#interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks
1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6%
HOWEVER
10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022!
#bonds
FED FOMC Decision6M and 1y bond yields will decline from here, as current 5,25 % interest have been successfully priced in. rate cuts from 2024 on seem to be the common expectation markets will price in from here.
Of a further rate hike is no talk at the moment. Inflation /core pce price is already down significantly at 4.3% and falling.
Means bond prices rise from here. Dollar rises from here. stocks go down from here.
ridethepig | One For The History Books...Negative US Rates !!!Negative rates are finally here for the US with the 6mo t-bill ticking below -2bps (feed is slightly delayed here). Simply meaning that you will now need to pay the US government for 6mo cash deposits. This is the only way they can continue in the "end game" strategy.
It is a well known phenomenon that the US 2's 5's was ringing alarm bells last year , those who were able to conduct their middle-game carefully were able to build credible trading ideas that leave the opposition hopeless in the endgame.
One of the main requisites for BTC to succeed in the endgame is based on the ability that FED can continue to confiscate while the "People vs Establishment" narrative deteriorates via lack of confidence in monetary policy. The endgame is much more the part of trading in which advantages are needed from economics. Now, the realisation of advantages, specifically advantages in Volatility .
In order to understand the flows across the entire board, you must learn about the endgame by starting from its individual elements, because it has such elements, just like the opens and middle-game strategies. We have previously already dug into these in detail that allow you to form ideas like this for the crash in German Equities.
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!