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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US 10Y TREASURY: easing with lower groundsInflation data posted during the previous week were the ones that the market was closely watching. A better than expected inflation in June in the US made an impact on Treasury yields. The consumer price index in June was down 0.1% from the figure posted in May, bringing CPI to the level of 3.0% on a yearly basis. At the same time core inflation was higher by 0.1% on a monthly basis, bringing core inflation to the level of 3.3% y/y. The evident slowdown in inflation figures supported market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September this year, in which sense, 10Y Treasury yields dropped to the level of 4.18% as of the end of the week. In terms of technical analysis, the 10Y Treasury yields are still testing the 4.20% level. In this sense some lower volatility might be expected in the week ahead. The market might turn once again to the upside, to the levels modestly above the 4.20% level. Charts are indicating probability for 4.30%, however, this might be the case for a week or two weeks ahead. In any case, the longer term perspective for Treasury yields is further decreased.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: June inflation and PPIMarkets reacted to released unemployment data during the previous week. The increasing unemployment to 4.1% in June from 4.0% in May was an indication to investors of a possibility that inflation pressures will slow down on decreased employment and that it will provide the necessary space for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. After struggling to sustain yields during the past several weeks, the market finally reacted in a relaxed manner during the previous week, by bringing the 10Y benchmark yields down to 4.28% on Friday. Yields started the week around level of 4.48%. For the week ahead, it should be considered that June inflation and PPI data will be published. Although surprises in inflation data are not expected, still, in case that posted figures do not fit market expectations, the market will correct current pricing. As per current charts, the level of 4.20% is indicated as the next level to be tested. However, some volatility might be expected, but not higher from 4.30%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting inflation dataFriday brought some higher volatility on the markets as newest inflation data were released, as well as the consumer sentiment. Although 10Y Treasury yields spent the first half of the week testing levels above 4.20%, still, released inflation data pushed the yields toward the 4.40% level. Released PCE data showed inflation at 2.6% y/y, which was the lowest level for the last three years. Still, the market also took into consideration Michigan consumer sentiment, which reached the level above the market estimate, and exposed consumer expectations that the inflation will stay elevated around 3% within the next year. The market priced recent available information regarding the potential Fed's move in the coming period. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is still showing that the majority of participants are expecting that the first rate cut might occur at September`s FOMC meeting. Still, it should be noted that Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted in an interview during the week, that she does not dismiss the possibility of increasing interest rates if inflation turns to the upside again. Since the market reached the 4.4% level on Friday, it could be expected that digesting of the latest inflation data will continue within the week ahead. In this sense, there is a higher probability that yields will ease during the week, at least to the level of 4.3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
10yr Treasury Yields Consolidate at Key 4.32% LevelThe world’s most important market, the 10yr US Treasury, is trading directly at a critical level. Going back years, the 4.32% level has served as reliable support/resistance, and today’s drop after peeking above that level yesterday has only emphasized the importance of that key level. At the same time, the 10yr Treasury yield has put in a series of lower highs and higher lows dating back to Q4 of last year, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to an outbreak of volatility in the coming weeks. A bullish breakout above 4.60% would hint at a possible retest of 5.00% (and likely weigh on risk assets like stocks and higher-yielding currencies), whereas a bearish breakdown in yields would open the door for a drop toward the December lows near 3.80%. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
Yields are in a do or die situationYields are pulling back a bit from the run they had yesterday. It was expected to have a bounce at the support levels. The 2Yr & 10Yr #Yield both look as if they want to settle a bit but time till tell . We will see how Yield reacts over the next few days. It is important as a crashing yield can mean higher prices all across the board in many assets. We've stated before that they CANNOT lower rates but at the same time CANNOT raise them. Seems as if they are playing around a bit providing liquidity to keep markets propped up a bit AND they may keep rates steady or just have 1 rate drop, before election. TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE weekUS Treasury yields had a relatively calmer week. Higher volatility was exhausted after the FOMC meeting, two weeks ago. The economic data are weighted and in expectation of the new ones the 10Y US benchmark was moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.20% and 4.29%. However, the major concern of market participants continues to be when the Fed will cut interest rates? Recent economic data are showing some potential that the US economy is beginning to slow down. This might be one of the triggering events for the Fed to cut interest rates, despite relatively elevated inflation figures. The week ahead is bringing PCE data for May, which is Fed`s favorite inflation gauge. In case of any surprises, the volatility might be easily back on markets. As per current charts, there is some potential for 10Y yields to test a bit higher ground, above 4.30%, while continuing to test the 4.20% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: maybe September?Markets have survived another FOMC meeting, and volatility induced by their narrative. From initially planned three rate cuts during the course of this year, we have learned from Fed Chair Powell, that there will probably be only one rate cut this year. The markets have switched their attention on when this first pivoting might occur, with current estimates that it might be in September. Whether this will be the case it is unclear, considering that the Fed missed their own estimates, let alone estimates from the market. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week around the level of 4.47% and during the week, Treasuries were traded higher in prices and lower in yields. The lowest yield reached was at 4.19%, still, the market closed Friday`s trading session at 4.22%. The level of 4.20% should be tested in the coming period. In this sense, it should not be expected to have lower yields from the current ones. Some short volatility toward the upside is possible but not the significant one. At this point on charts, the level of 4.3% might be a target of 10Y yields, but only shortly.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX