yellow channel breakout retest and rate cutyields went up inside a yellow channel
now testing lower yellow line after breakout
since rate cut are will begin soon so after retest of lower yellow line it can make new lower low
US10Y trade ideas
Forecasting the US 10-Year Yield: Insights for Q2 and Q3Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months.
I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a short-term surge to 4.625%, a subsequent retracement to 4.3%, and finally, a bold move up to 5% by the end of July.
TVC:US10Y
Prepare for market turbulence! With inflation data grabbing the spotlight, brace yourself for a potential seismic shift in the financial landscape. As inflation data becomes the talk of the town, all eyes turn to the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y , which stands on the brink of a surge towards the pivotal 4.625% threshold.
We're in for a wild ride as inflation data takes center stage and sets the stage for market volatility.
Reasoning:
Economic Recovery Outlook: Assessing the pace and trajectory of economic recovery will be paramount in forecasting the US 10-year yield. Keep an eye on key indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, employment figures, and consumer sentiment surveys.
Inflation Expectations: Rising inflation expectations can put upward pressure on bond yields as investors demand higher returns to offset the eroding purchasing power of their investments. Monitor inflation data releases and central bank statements for insights into future policy actions.
Profit-Taking Opportunity: In anticipation of the yield surge, I'm eyeing profit-taking opportunities on USD pairs. The heightened yield environment could attract investors seeking higher returns, driving up demand for the USD in the short term.
Inflation Data Surge: As inflation data takes center stage, the US 10-year yield is poised to surge towards the critical 4.625% threshold. This anticipated increase in bond yields is likely to trigger a ripple effect across the forex market, particularly impacting USD pairs.
Global Economic Trends: Global economic trends and geopolitical developments can also impact the US 10-year yield. Factors such as international trade dynamics, monetary policy decisions by major central banks, and geopolitical tensions can influence investor sentiment and bond market movements.
As we journey through the second and third quarters, let's stay proactive and informed to capitalize on opportunities in the bond market. Join the discussion as we navigate the intricacies of bond yield forecasting! #US10YearYield #Forecasting #BondMarketAnalysis 📈📉💡
us10y bondslooking at the us10y, looking for a reaction zone at 7% as she continues to climb testing key resistance at this time. #us10y #bonds #stockmarket #investor TVC:US10Y
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently.
The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam.
Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish
(Data not seen here, more info in profile)
2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates.
10Yr has been trading mostly above.
Weekly
2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern.
10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX
Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
US10Y Bouncing US10Y is looking like it is going to make its next leg up soon. It bounced off the MAs a couple weeks ago (which corresponded to the previous high in Oct 2022) and is moving up quick.
Something about today's price action with equities and NVDA is giving me an inkling that US10Y will be moving up throughout the summer, targeting the 5% level again.
US Bond Yield 10 year VS NASQAD US Bond Yield 10 year show continue uptrend but NASQAD show timing end uptrend.
US10Y - Down To Go UpLast week was packed of rangebound action but Wednesday was the day that changed the market structure, shifting to the downside.
Expecting a relief rally upto 4.450%
Show me what you gotAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
🌕DOOMSDAY POST #236🌖 : THE GREAT RESET🌗MAKE OR BREAK🌒Okay lets break it down
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Technical analysis is a very important factor in prediction, despite the fact we like to downgrade and bruise the egos of traders who are overly reliant on it
of traders but lets put the jokes aside its all just data and interpreting it is the objective
history repeats itself simple
That said im going to be predicting the coming interest rates by predicting the TVC:US10Y (similar beta in trend) which will lead to strengthening TVC:DXY and large capital outflows from emerging economies experiencing foreign investment boom resulting in one big financial doo-doo aka RECESSION
i know nothing new under the sun and i 100% live by it, but with the amount of new variables to filter in i feel like this might be bigger than we anticipate or might just be brushed under the rug as if nothing happend after experiencing a big retracement of sorts in the markets but not big enough to lose our shxxs
the significance of the variables as a result of their magnitude is what concerns me
and their impact to the panic which i also suspect could work in the markets favour for some reason
WARS and the increasing division among allied nations
Market liquidity (more participants)
Social media and changing social standards (the consumers livelihoods)
US debt ceiling
US Real estate mortgage rates
Shift in power dominance (China)
LET ME KEEP IT SHORT 4 NOW
10Y yields - Elliott Wave count points to further downsideFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like more weakness should be seen on the 10Y yields after the end of the corrective wave B (or wave 2). Since that top at 4.74%, we have seen a five wave decline which was followed by a three wave advance (it could still be developing). I believe the 5-wave decline was wave 1 of a 5-wave impulsive decline that could take yields to 3.50%, where wave C would be equal to A. This view is negated if we break above the aforementioned top of wave B.
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE data is coming From week to week investors are shaping the sentiment in line with the latest available data on the US inflation and probability of when the Fed might make its first rate cut during the course of this year. Expectations from the first quarter of this year are turned toward September, where the CME FedWatch Tool is now showing that traders are currently pricing around 50% probability for this period and 63% probability for the rate cut in November. There are also some significant names on the market, who are publicly noting their expectation that the Fed most probably will not cut interest rates during this year. All this needs to be digested by the market, so some volatility might continue in the future period. This is especially relevant for the week ahead, for when US April PCE data are set for a release.
The 10Y benchmark was moving within a relatively short range during the previous week, between levels of 4.4% and 4.49%. It could be expected that the market will open on Monday around 4.5%, however, there is no indication that the yields can go higher from this level. Certainly, any surprises on PCE data might change it. At this moment, charts are more oriented toward downside, with higher probability that levels modestly below 4.45 could be tested for one more time.
10 Year US Bonds - Forecast for Months ahead from 26 May 2024My forecast for the months ahead from May 2024 and where we are going.
I'm expecting higher prices as long as we remain above the fair value gap.
US 10YR yields approaching symmetrical triangle formationKey Pivot to reach Apex which would result in Breakout is around US Election period.(Nov start)
1) Election Outcome favourable and CPI under control (fed cuts) - Yields drop further
2) Election outcome not favourable & CPI under Control - Yields to move up in medium term (above 4.467% level) & throwback to apex.
3) Election outcome favorable & CPI increases - Yields to move down in medium term below 4.467% & pullback to apex level.
regain sthchecked and hit trough a resistens, cant hold it, now cheking back a lower support, my idea with a little pozitive strenght. and a next month will be an upward movment to the nearest local high, what is the target area
Flip FlopAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
Daily Chart: ZB(30y Bonds) v US10y (10Y Yields)Please read descriptions in chart on analysis.
overall, not much news this week, just FED speak and NVDA earnings plus Memorial day next week so we can have a choppy week awaiting next week's data
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below):
Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up.
Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%.
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US 10Y TREASURY: smooth optimismInvestors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year, with currently 54% odds. This sentiment pushed the equity markets in the US, however, US Treasuries were traded in a mixed manner. Namely, the 10Y benchmark yields started the previous week around 4.5% level, and during the week were pushed to the lowest weekly level at 4.32%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.42%.
The level of 4.2% is currently tested. Market will start the week ahead trying to break the 4.2% line to the upside. Some volatility might be expected in the coming period, and data are still not completely clear in which direction the inflation in the US is heading. In this sense, there is some probability for the 4.5% level to be tested for one more time, but there is no indication that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, the easing of yields might go down to the level of 4.3% for one more time.
US 10 Year Bonds - Weekly Outlook - 20 May 2024 - Image
Daily chart of US 10 Year Bond
As per image, we have had two drives up, and are finding support here, so i would think there is at least one more drive up.
I'll be looking to get long as per my diagram shown, with SL and TP as shown.
US10Y - US02Y = Crash ZoneCrash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen.
I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference.
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom.
I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.
