The US10Y is crazy! Doesn't make sense1981 to 2020 - 39 years! the US10Y has been going down!
In 2020 it's start reversing like crazy!
What is going on!
US10Y trade ideas
US10YR Seems to Head to 5.2%US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.
US-German yield spreads suggest higher Dollar IndexIt's reasonably well appreciated that the biggest component of the dollar index DXY is the euro. Therefore when trying toanalyse the future direction of the Dollar one needs to consider what is happening to the spread between yields in the two main economic areas (US and Germany as a proxy). If we look at US10Y-DE10Y historically we can see, as might be expected, when the spread rises/widens the Dollar strengthens. So to me, it loks like wwe are currently forming a bullish flag consolidation pattern in the yield spread, suggesting that at some point soon we will get a move higher in the spread, and with it a higher DXY.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
10 yr yield targets are being met into 4.70plus .Bonds are ready for a nice Short term rally be long TLT and do NOT be short stocks
Bonds, DXY are down. Commodities down too, no hedgeHistorically when Bonds and US Dollar DXY are down, then Commodities go up. Their inverse correlation is currently broken.
Just something to monitor and warning that something is out of order which should be ringing alarm bells
TLT Long - We may see an improvement in a narrow windowI expect a rise around TLT 89.8 at 16.04. This means a pullback of 4.53 for US10Y.
10 Yield yield is ready to destroy SPYThe 10-year yield is in a huge symmetrical triangle.
Break out of it would trigger a massive move in rates. Rates are moving up due to the very hot inflation report.
Let's see if will it be rejected or if this will be the end of the bull market for now!
Long term bonds are much higher than when bank fiascoShort term bonds are still trading below the bank fiasco crisis.
1 & 2YR Yields.
However.......
Long term #yield is higher than it was during the bank fiasco.
10 & 30 YR #Yield.
Normalization of the curve is still a ways off.
Stock Market Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Sectors Heavy selling observed across the S&P500: Financials & Real Estate hit hard.
S&P500 hitting the 50 day MA...technical daily support.
Some breakout sectors are seeing there first pullback in a bullish trend.
The sectors that have had breakouts will likely see dip buyers.
Health Care & Utilities are into some interesting support levels. This is where bulls step in.
Megacap Tech still saw some flight to safety money! Lets see if this holds.
US 10Y TREASURY: inflation means less rate cutsJobs data were the ones that moved the markets two weeks ago, while the previous week was marked with inflation data. The US inflation is quite persistent and moved higher to 3.5% in March, from 3.4% that the market was expecting. The overall market sentiment is that the Fed will stay reluctant to decrease interest rates during the course of this year, since the inflation is slowly moving far away from targeted 2%. However, not all on the market are of this opinion. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, made a comment of his expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at least two times till the end of this year, however, the estimated 2% will be missed. In other words, he expects that the Fed will drop the idea of a 2% target, and accept its higher levels. What will be the final Fed's decision, markets will know in May this year, since the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the first week of May.
During the previous week market priced current expectations and moved 10Y Treasury yields to the much higher grounds, from previously expected and traded. At one moment yields reached the level of 4.59%, however, they ended the week at 4.52%. Since the market priced currently known information, it could be expected that yields will calm down a bit in the week ahead. However, there should not be expected some significant drop in yields, at least until the next FOMC meeting.
US10Y First 1D Golden Cross after 9 months formed!The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below):
The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since it is so rare. The previous Golden Cross before July 2023 was on October 29 2021, which means that when the market forms this pattern, the price rallies aggressively.
That is exactly what we expect to happen now. A short-term pull-back to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) similar to July 19 2023, is possible but as long as it holds, we expect our 5.000% Target to get hit relatively soon.
Beyond that, we need to see the previous Higher High breaking (similar to August 21 2023) to justify further buying. If that happens we will look for a new Higher High extension on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, approximately around 5.800%.
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Normalization of Yield Curve on its own is in dangerGood Morning Everyone
We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher.
There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today.
IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would be the normalization to happen in its own.
Are Interest Rates going Higher?What would cause rates to move higher?
Inflation 2.0?
According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates.
If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future.
This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a 30 year bond bull market/ 30 year bear yield market.
Maybe the traditional 60 equity/40 bond gets toppled. Maybe we move to a 40 equity/60 bond portfolio.
If This rotation was to occur, the stock market would likely see a significant loss.
10 year bond yields continue to trend 📈 higherBond Traders are positioning to the narrative of higher rates for longer from the Fed. 10 year bond yields continue to trend 📈 higher. Will be break the high of the year or pull back?
US 10Y TREASURY: jobs and inflation data Jobs data posted during the previous week surprised the markets in a negative way. It is sort of a paradox, considering that usually strong job market is good for the economy of any country. However, at the current situation, this strong jobs market sends a signal of a potential increase in inflation figures, which might impact the Fed's decision to cut interest rates during the course of this year. In addition, there should be noted a modest effect from new geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which impact jump in price of oil. The combination of these effects, made markets to reconsider their previously set projections, and re-position accordingly. In this sense, the 10Y Treasury yields made a significant move from levels around 4.2% all the way up to the level of 4.4% during the week.
In a week ahead data on US inflation rate in March are set to be released, which might drive some further volatility on the markets. Depending on data, if inflation is persistent then some further moves around 4.4% might be expected. On the opposite side, there should be some relaxation in yields, at least till the level of 4.3%.
US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle
Ascending triangle detected on US10Y
The exponential moving averages remain possible targets
Monitor Ichimoku levels
The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory.
Bonds can rise to a double top
Stay careful
Good trades to all
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 6Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 6
US10Y - Can The Upwards Momentum Continue?From the ending of 2023, Yields have been trickling to the upside, regaining the losses made throughout the last quarter of Q4.
With this weeks candle attacking buyside liquidity with a strong bullish closure, manipulation to the downside, ideally respecting the short term lows @ 4.183%.
4.532% lowest displacement of the order block is in the cards.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
10 minus 2 + copperCopper miners smelling more yield curve un-inversion...
#copper #silver #gold #uranium #crudeoil
Yield spreads and Dollar higherI wam showing another (weekly t/f) version of the chart I published weeks ago on the driver for USD bs the Euro - yield spread between US10Y and German10Y.
There is NOTHING bearish about this chart.
Price (spread) breaking higher. Indicators as positive as you like.
Dollar higher.
US10YR BONDSlooks like we found the turn frens.
lets geaux.
hopefully youre an OG with fib extensions :)
Yield Curve US10Y-US02Y telling a crash incoming?When the yield curve (US10Y-US02Y) started going back up and uninverted, that's when markets reached their TOPS and started going back down.
This happened in 2000 and 2007.
I feel like this will happen again in 2024.
The yield curve went from -1% to -0.3% in the last year. It is going back up.
Will SPX top in 2024 and go down for the next 1-3 years?
