US10Y trade ideas
US10Y at major resistance? down from here.super consistent resistance/support. should keep moving lower from here.
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders!
The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation.
Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion?
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Long term yields have been running, US Dollar as wellGood Morning Update
Unless this reverses it looks like it is getting stronger.
Thought #interestrates were supposedly going down?
10Yr #yield looks very good & the 30 Yr has been pumping for a bit.
2Yr stopped falling, is it bottoming here?
US #Dollar pumping as well - TVC:DXY
We've been warning.......
10 versus 2 year yieldsRecent history has shown the 10 vs 2 year yields unwinding as favorable for gold, silver and miners.
Will definitely be a rocky road, with full of turbulence.
#gold #silver #miners #inflation
US 10Y TREASURY: 4.0% testing is over?The US Treasuries ended the previous year with investors expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts, which was reflected in the Treasury yields which took the downtrend. This year, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark started by testing the $4.0% short resistance level, which ended in a short reversal further to the downside. During the previous week yields were moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.0% and 3.9%. Friday’s session ended with modestly lower grounds as investors were digesting the latest US inflation data released for December 2023.
As inflation is easing down further in the US, so will the investors' expectations that the Fed might cut rates sooner from the second half of this year. In this sense, the 10Y yields might test lower grounds, where 3.8% currently stands as a next target and support line in technical analysis which is pending testing.
US10Y
Currently US10Y is in the selling zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the buying phase.
US10Y: Bullish long term.The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and one more pullback to the HL would be ideal for the most comfortable buy entry until the 1D MA50 is crossed. Our target is towards the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4.600%).
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Bonds go up, stocks go downThe 10YR Yield is retracing up with a strong bullish div on the RSI and momentum wave.
The SPX is on the opposite side.
- strong bearish div on the RSI and momentum wave.
- blue pivot point indications
- price is trading outside the BB and is closing back inside.
The SPX is ready for a big retrace.
US10Y Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 011124Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 126/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
us10y and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further, read my post from april:
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it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed.
back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y.
as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going into the end of 2024.
i'm aware that jpow has mentioned in the last few fed meetings that he has no intention of raising the rates any further, but i'm seeing a significant development on many of the charts this week which tells me otherwise. so i'm calling him out on his bluff.
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us10y w5 algo = 6-9%
Long Yields!Long the 10y for rising rates, this means bank stonks. This isn't a perma long as I expect Q3/4 to slow down on the YoY comps. Ultimately I see a lower high from the past high we saw. Lots of inflation bulls here and I am one of them, but this inflation is printer induced. Forget to restock the printer and inflation disappears real fast. The pair trade here into Q3 is long XLF and short TLT
US 10Y TREASURY: heading toward 3% in 2024The first half of the year 2023 was marked with continuation of Fed`s aggressive rate hike due to quantitative tightening in order to fight elevated inflation. During October last year the 10Y US Treasuries reached the highest yearly level of 5%. Considering that following months brought some relaxation in Fed`s rhetoric, the yields returned to the lower grounds. The pivotal point for yields was a moment when Fed officials stressed their projections that the reference rate as of the end of 2024 should reach 4.6%. This was a major note for markets, which started pricing Fed's rate cuts in the year ahead. During the Q3 2023 Treasury yields significantly eased, ending the year by testing the 4.0% level.
As per latest Fed`s forecasts, the inflation in the US should decrease in 2024, but will still not reach the targeted value of 2%, jobs markets should remain strong as well as economic output, and the Fed will correct its current interest rates to the downside. In economic theory this would imply that 10Y Treasury yields should follow the path and also decrease. However, the theory is one thing, and the reality is something completely different. Analysts are generally in agreement that yields should move between 3% and 4% in 2024, however, it will strongly depend on the Fed`s rhetoric and further monetary moves. What is currently certain is that the 4% level will be tested at the beginning of 2024, with some probability that the level of 3% might be reached as of the year-end.
Support & Resistance Level on US 10 Year Treasury - Weekly ChartOn this Weekly chart I add the lines of key support and resistance levels for the US 10 Year Treasury. It's at a pivotal point right now hovering around 4%. What i'm watching for is to see if it's going to reclaim 4% for 2 consecutive weeks at a minimum and move higher to re-test that 4.25 to 4.28 range or if it will stay below 4% for 2-3 consecutive weeks and move lower into the next level down that I have marked off with white lines. I watch this closely as I am in the mortgage business and what the 10 year does daily will impact mortgage rates.
Critical Levels and Market Anticipation - US 10Y yieldUnveiling the High-Stakes Dance of US Inflation and the 10-Year Yield: Critical Levels and Market Anticipation"
A slew of US inflation data is scheduled for release on Friday, prompting our attention towards the US 10-year yield. Initially holding ground at 3.79, it has recently broken its short-term downtrend and is undergoing an upward correction. The market has paused near the 4.10 level, precisely aligning with the high of March 23 at 4.09.
It seems the market is consolidating its recent gains. Beyond the 4.10 mark, the immediate target price appears to be a combination of the 55-day moving average, presently at 4.31, and the previous peak in August 2023 at 4.36. Notably, these two levels stand out clearly on the chart, also marking the high from October 2022.
From a technical perspective, breaching 4.10 could lead to an upward movement towards 4.31 to 4.36, serving as the next significant barrier. On the downside, the recent low of 3.79 and the 20-month moving average at 3.80 act as initial support levels. Below this lies a more substantial base of support, not encountered until 3.25.
The forthcoming inflation figures on Friday should be interesting. All eyes are set on these critical levels for the US 10-year yield, hinting at potential market movements ahead.
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Higher yields coming blow off top? Countries are losing faith in the USA and gaining faith in the Brics nations. Expect higher inflation in food and lower asset prices with higher yields moving forward
UST 10 yr yield, breaking the trend line on a closing basisThe rally in UST that began end of October and was supported by Mr Dove JP, is now unwinding. If NFP's are strong this Friday could push yields back to 4.25.
Short term rates still look weak while long term look betterHAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉
US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE.
This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of.
Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME
1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to weaken a bit more.
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HOWEVER, long term debt looks to be solidifying a bit.
The 10 & 30Yr #Yield look identical & both look like they want to bounce here. How strong? We'll see. Took small position on Thurs.
This could also be more of a technical set up as both are at support levels, 30yr is at strong long term support.
TVC:TNX #bonds
Understanding quarterly shifts in DXYIf you engage in futures trading, it's crucial to closely monitor quarterly shifts in DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD, and yields. These indicators provide valuable insights into potential directional changes. Pay special attention to daily Market Structure High (MSB) and Smart Money Tool (SMT) patterns among correlated assets. Once a shift is identified, focus your trades in alignment with that new direction, emphasizing a strategy that considers the prevailing macroeconomic factors. The correlation and intermarket analysis, integral to this approach, involve studying relationships between assets to discern potential market movements. Success in implementing this strategy relies on a trader's expertise, risk management, and adaptability to evolving market conditions. Stay informed about global economic events and regularly reassess your trading strategy in response to market developments.
10Y-02Y US bond yield spread completes Ichimoku cloud backtestSince early 2021, the 10Y-02Y yield spread (an early bellwether indicator for a coming US recession) has undergone a long and deep inversion. Fears of economic instability as 10 year yields sharply rose in fall of 2023 eventually subsided as stocks rallied to close the year. However, the year also ends with a sign that another sharp increase in the yield spread could be coming sooner than most suspect.
déjà vuCircle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical.
Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle.
I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek"
Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original.
Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us.
FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED.
Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market
Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market
Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets.
Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall.
The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak.
For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities.
This trend is about to shift rapidly.
And the speed of such a shift is extreme.
While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y.
Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating.
In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown.
Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market.
History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds.
Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash.
Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW — TNX GOES NUTS!Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults.
Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent.
This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. US debt growth has also slowed in recent years, and a "full blown" recession has yet to be officially declared.
If a full-blown recession does not occur in the next year or two, the restart of the credit cycle will be delayed. For now, analysts still predict that a moderate/short recession is more likely than a full blown recession.
Markets are increasingly nervous about the prospect of a future downturn, with the New York Fed's Recession Probability Index projecting appr. 70 percent chance of a recession hitting by April 2024. The risk comes from the Fed's aggressive 21-fold increase in interest rates over the past 15 months to tame inflation.
The US Federal Reserve, having fired a lot of "HIKE RATE" ammos over the past two years. And certainly has fulfilled its goals.
In fact, in the second quarter of 2023, the rolling 12-month growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (April value = 4.9%) was below the Core CPI (April value = 5.5%).
In human words that means prices of food and energy are deflating year-over-year.
To some extent, the risk is also heightened by the recent banking turmoil, as lenders suffer losses on their "HELD-TO-MATURITY" (and in fact "READY-TO-SELL") portfolios of long-term corporate bonds and US Government bonds, as well as in due to a sharp outflow of deposits.
The technical picture in TVC:TNX says the key trend is still strong, thanks to tailwinds from the first quarter of 2022 and support of Weekly SMA(52).
The second half of 2023 is off to an interesting start.
High quality "AAA" 10-year Bond' yield is back to pain levels corresponding to the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange last fall, as well as the collapse of regional and cryptocurrency banks as early as this spring, 2023 (like SVB, FRC and others).
At the same time, real (that is, minus inflation) rates are now certainly much higher, against each of those two marks, as inflation is down.
