US10Y Yeild US10Y in a bearish channel. Will it breakout to the up side or respect fail and break towards the downside?
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y yieldsYields are the factor that dictates what happens to the market next.
In case of a break above the white trend around 4.8% expect another push higher towards 5.2% which will mean the stock market might a final push higher, then a recession should hit at this rate.
in case of a break below the yellow channel around 4.35% expect further downside to 3.2% which should coincide with a healthy market correction and a run to safety with a rise in bonds, below this level should means recession is already in
Did the 10 year yield break in 2008?Good day Traders and investors,
The 10 year yield on the 6 month chart. This is the entire history on one chart.
What is going on with the 10 year yield? It is getting very, very volatile. It all started in 2008 with the financial crisis just looming around the corner. At the same time it broke the .236 on the Fibonacci sequence and has been diving ever since. That is until the next major crisis of the pandemic where is seems to have bottomed and took a strong bounce off a cliff dive. What does all this mean? did something break in 2008 like a lot of economist are saying? It's very possible. When we look at the chart, the 10 year yield compared to the last decade has been very stable. Even during the Volker years (late 70's early 80's) when interest rates spikes it barely made a move out from the norm and then rode the top of the trend as support for years until 2008. This volatility break out does look deferent and kind of scary. What will the volatility lead too, massive spike? or massive plunge? Could it also just bounce around sideways for years? What we have to keep in mind is, these are historically long-term trends. 20 to 40 years. Could this move up be a fake out? Yes, I think it's possible, however a fake out is on this chart 5 to 10 years, so it's of no major concern at the moment.
THE INDICATRORS
Right away, when look at the chart and the RSI, we see clear weakening and bearish divergence on the trend. We can see it playing out (bearish divergence) from 1968 to 1981, when the yield made a higher high but the RSI made a lower low. As we can see the divergence did play out, but it took almost 2 generations in 40 years. Also the ASO has been showing that the sentiment over the yield has been lessening over the years on the up swings and down swings, but it just had a major cross, so is that over now? Time will tell, a lot of it.
Touching on the Historical volatility again, we clearly see a sense of somewhat controlled or stable volatility for close to 100 years until 2008. Could this new volatility be the new trending range for the next hundred years? Possibly, if so, it shouldn't concern us. For now, we should just focus on the next 5 to 10 years and see what happens.
I have included a couple of scenarios in the chart. If the RSI gets rejected from this down trend, then yes, this is the chance that it could be a fake out move and then reverse and go lower. If volatility stays high and the trend is to go up for 20 to 40 years then I do believe the RSI would have to break this down trend. both of those in my opinions are scary, the 2nd one than the first. There is also sideways action for a decade and possible a cool down of the volatility before the next move, I would prefer this one, as it seems less scary to me.
THE FLUFF AND EXTRA
I think the yields being a fake out and go lower is the least likely scenario. However, (and here is the Fluff) my conspiracy mind has one scenario where this could happen. It all hinges and plays on CBDC's becoming a thing during this time frame. The theory is if CBDC's are introduced within the next 5 to 10 years then the yields could reverse, go back and make new lows at some point. The reason being is I don't think we can go negative yields without CBDC's. That doesn't mean it's a given if CBDC are implemented, it means the doorway would be opened for it. Remember, this is just FLUFF and opinion and means nothing.
Kind regards &
Have great day
Demetrios
2024 is a wrap - time for 2025 outlook - let's go2024 will be a memorable year
-23% gains
-Mag 7 + Semiconductors + Bitcoin all contributing nicely
-PLTR was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 (impressive 340.48%)
As always, 2024 wasn't in a straight line up, though it felt like it at times
VIX had #1 and #2 largest single day moves ever (Aug 5 and Dec 18)
April was a sticky inflation pullback month
August was a Bank of Japan deleveraging weekend scare
FED dominated the catalysts with guidance, narrative, and wait and see between employment and inflation data
2025 will bring new president, new policy, new Republican power. Many were excited about this but there are still checks and balances and markets need more reassurance than hyperbole. I plan to look at income plays and trading plays were buy and hold. Whatever I do own equities and ETFs wise, I want protection just in case the market isn't as straightforward and bullish like it has been since Oct 2022.
Happy New Year - thanks for watching!!! See you in 2025!!!
new bond paradigm?new paradigm
maybe
idk
probably not
so
probably long bonds
or dont
idc
but long bonds
ok?
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting to Fed`s narrativeThe largest surprise during the Holiday week on the Western markets was a sudden move of the 10Y US benchmark yields toward the higher grounds. The 10Y yields reached the level of 4,629% after weightening the Fed`s narrative from the last FOMC meeting. The market is now anticipating a more hawkish Fed's policy in 2025. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 2025, but there is no expectation that the Fed will make any move in interest rates during this meeting. As Fed Chair Powell noted in his statement in December, the Fed will continue to look at inflation and strength of the job market, before it decides on a next rate cut. Inflation is expected to stay sticky in 2025, while the market will continue to listen closely what Fed is saying.
UP "Please provide a meaningful and detailed description of your prediction..." Says Tradingview
Up. It go up. Why? Idono the same as you do or do not know. It's the simple things I think that makes dollars sound like soundness of mind. While lil Timmy has been working hard to get a few bucks to buy his favorite dog coin he heard about at lunch yesterday in middle school.
Asking a fool like me what to buy with his allowance. Who isn't looking for a return nowadays I guess even at 11 we need to make 1000x gainz because "10 years!?" "That's forever!" he and any other like minded person may say to me. I think all they heard was the "10 Year" Part...😋
Ya know? One things for sure we are all counting dollars when this or whatever thing you think will make you money moves up or down. Hummmmmm Maybe there's something to that whole I need a dollar thought?🤑
I bet it would be carzy to see the Yield on the 10 year US GOV Bonds run up to 16%.
What kind of future are we all living in when that happens??? Asking for this 11 year old thats asking me what the next best coin is from here....
YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so.
🚽👄 Toilet Mouth: "Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT"
⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits.
⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not.
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK!
🙏FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
You have been warned by The Coin SLayer!
P.S. Now witha bag!
P.S.S. well two or Ten
10 YR StuckAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
You Are Here -> 10YR YIELDSThe next financial crisis is potentially right around the corner
11:11
The question is, has the fed lost control?
Is it by design?
In less than 50 Days the fed gets back together, 11/7
Election is 11/5
Veterans Day is 11/11
Look What 10 Year Yields Have Been Doing for The Last 10 YearsThis is a 10 year chart of the 20 Week SMA of the US 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield.
The simple moving average of the US10Y formed similar head and shoulder patterns, one inverse, before the last two large reversals.
10 YR Heading HigherAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
10 YR Heading HigherAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
A Turning Point for RatesAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
Comparing US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX, fundamental/technical analysisProposed technical/fundamental analysis for US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX.
Bank unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held to maturity securities was $364 billion in Q3 2024; this number will continue to increase as long-term treasure rates increase (www.fdic.gov).
US10Y yield chart looks for yield to go higher, north of 5%. If treasury rates continue to increase, there may be a bank run, as banks get more and more underwater with their unrealized losses. DXY will go up above 120, US500 will crater below October 2022 low of 3490.2, and VIX will pop towards 80.
Understanding the US10Y Crab Pattern in 2024
The US10Y refers to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy and is closely watched by investors.
"Analyzing the US10Y trend, a bearish butterfly pattern has emerged at the 1.276 and 1.618 level, indicating a potential bullish trend in 2023. This pattern suggested a reversal in the current market direction, and The US10Y bond market has been exhibiting an intriguing pattern known as the "CRAB PATTERN," with implications for the year 2024.
This pattern suggests that the market may experience a period of consolidation before potentially reversing its direction. Additionally, the presence of a parallel channel further supports the notion of a bearish trend, as this technical indicator typically indicates a downward trajectory in the market.
Traders and analysts should closely monitor these developments and consider potential strategies to navigate the market amidst this anticipated trend.
It is crucial to conduct thorough analysis and consider various factors before making any significant trading decisions in response to the observed pattern and trend.
US 10Y TREASURY: only 50 bps in 2025?The Fed spoiled the market game for one more time. Although interest rates were cut by another 25 bps as expected, still the market did not like what Powell said about projections for 2025. He noted that the Fed expects persistent inflation, hence, the current projections are drop in interest rates by only 50 bps. Inflation expectations were also corrected, so now the Fed expects the PCE indicator to end next year at 2,5%, versus 2,2% previously forecasted, while its targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027.
The inevitable happened on the Treasury market - yields went strongly higher. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moved from 4,3% from the start of the week toward the highest weekly level at 4,58%. However, they eased at Friday's trading session, after better than expected US inflation data, ending the week at 4,52%.
Holiday season on Western markets is coming in the week ahead. During this period of time it should not expect any stronger moves or higher corrections. In this sense, the 10Y US Treasury would most probably end this year around levels of 4,5%.
100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield.
Basis = 10 Year SMA
Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis
Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis
For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction.
*** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
Market Alert: US 10Y YieldBack in mid-October, I mentioned keeping the US 10Y yield on your radar 📊 as it appeared to be forming a potential falling wedge pattern. This pattern, if completed, would indicate higher interest rates ahead.
Well... the time is here! 👀 Should the market close above 4.42% today, this pattern will officially complete.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Ideally, a second close above this zone in the New Year would confirm the breakout.
✅ This suggests not only a retest of the 2023 high of 5.02%, but also an upside measured target of 5.60%!
Stay sharp and keep this on your radar! 📈
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70s over again?US10y yields has just broken up, suggesting higher yields. How far will it go, and can the stock market cope with it? I think its time to be very cautios
US10Y vs US02Y Bond Re-Inversion ContinuesBreakout after FED meeting yesterday.
The Inversion has indicate recession in the past by it does fall within the rate cut cycle for the FED right now.
This chart shows just how on the edge the Bond Market IsI find it hard to argue with this chart. Clearly we are on a knifes edge. It may be time to de-risk and lock in profit. PROCEED WITH CAUTION !!!
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top:
Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook.
The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize.
For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc.
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