YS10Y 4H10-Year Treasury Bond Analysis
The analysis is progressing very accurately and in line with the previous forecast, and we are following it with confidence.
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US10Y trade ideas
Head & Shoulder 10 Year Bond - Possible Bond Yield ReversalIn this chart I noticed the 10 Year Bond is forming a Head & Shoulders Pattern. If this plays out it would be Bullish !!! Typically when the 10-Year Bond retraces asset prices go up. Aka Prices increase to the upside !!
The RSI is also bouncing from lows nearly reaching the oversold level but not quite. It's possible that there is more downside left on the RSI and that levels continue to go down. I will be watching the RSI closely to see how it changes over the following days and weeks.
This market is CRAZY !!!
LONG 10YR Note FuturesThis could have just as well been 10Y. Forex or ZN Futures in any case a rate play in a cycle of increasing commodity prices (Cocoa, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton, Cattle, etc...) so to the 10yr rate in a period of accelerating rates and accelerating to stagnant growth. We are here at the edge or LOWER BOUND of a daily risk range volatility adjusted in a bull market which means its time to pull the trigger. Play a stop on a break a little bit below the trend line to your own risk tolerance but give it a little room to breathe.
Is the US 10Y yield dropping below 4%?My short-term profit-generating system is giving a strong signal that the US 10Y yield is about to drop below the 4% level.
The US Treasury market is regaining its safe haven status.
US 10Y Yields - End of January AnalysisToday is an important day as it marks the first day of a new month, giving me the added advantage of analysing the full month’s candle close as well as a weekly close.
Here, I share with you how fundamentals this month affected price action and where in the medium to long term the market can reprice up/down into.
The highs for the month is 4.809%
The lows for the month is 4.488%
Candle body closure above 4.818% will negate my bearish notion of retracing down into the November 2024 monthly bullish order block.
"the top is in", "for the rates"gm,
markets tend to be forward looking, and based off my understanding + the chart data, it appears the top is in for the rates.
i predict the market will begin to price in future rate cuts and start bringing the us10y down.
this will open the door to a "risk on" enviroment for big tech, as well as risk assets like crypto .
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the count on the us10y is relatively simple.
5 waves up from the 2020 lows.
predicting 3 waves down into the year ahead.
the low on the us10y should coincide with a high in the global liquidity index,,, which is set to peak into the end first month of 2026.
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ps. check out the last us10y update from 2 years ago via:
US 10Y TREASURY: relieved tensions, for the momentMuch of the tension collected for the last month has been relieved after the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected and also there were no surprises when it comes to the future course of inflation and potential Fed moves. However, Friday was a game changer, as the US President announced implementation of new import tariffs for goods coming from Canada, Mexico and China. Although the 10Y Treasury yields reached the 4,48% on Thursday, still, Friday news reverted the course of yields to the upside, bringing them to the level of 4,58%.
It will certainly take the next week until markets digest all new information regarding tariffs and its potential effect on the US economy. This also might have implications on the future course of inflation and also in the last instance, to Fed interest rate decisions in the future. For the week ahead, it should also be taken into account that non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are scheduled for a release, in which sense, market volatility might continue.
1Q2025 updateJust a quick update on my previous idea linked below. The US 10-year yield has come off and completed a 4th wave lower onto the 50-day MA of 4.83%. If this support and the current upward channel holds its ground, I expect a 5th wave higher to rip yields toward the 5% level.
A break below the blue support range between 4.45% and 4.5% will however invalidate the move and allow yields to ease towards 4.20%.
President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit.
Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive?
Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar...
Additionally, attached in the comments is the progress that the Fed has made on its balance sheet taper. So far so good, neither the US bond nor repo market hasn't crashed het like it did in September 2019 but another rip higher in US long dated treasuries might just be the spark that lights the kerosene-soaked rug which will force the Fed to step back into the bond market.
US 10Y Yields - Chasing Lower YieldsAssessing the weekly range, from low to high, it is clear to me that the yields is still trading in a premium and with major liquidity pools attacked to the upside, it's only a matter of time we see a cooldown period.
Below 4.469% is regarded as a discount and it might take several of weeks to pan out but I would like to see the weekly bearish consequent encroachment @ 4.735% respected with 4.809% being the last line of defence.
US10Y will turn bullish on its 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 17 2024 Low and is currently on its Bearish Leg. This is now approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), below which the last Higher Low was priced that initiated the Bullish Leg.
With the 1D RSI approaching the same level as then, this is the ideal level to go long again and target 5.000%, which is just below the October 23 2023 Resistance.
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US10Y afternoon analysisTechnical analysis for US10Y.
This count is looking for one more push up in yields, approaching (but not going above) 5.215%. Median line is target.
This would complete an expanded flat that started in 2012.
This analysis would suggest the end of the bond bear market is approaching, as long as 5.215% holds as resistance. Yields above 5.215% would suggest much higher yields are likely.
Yields below 4.505% before move above 5% would also invalidate this count.
US 10Y TREASURY: a FOMC weekThe previous week was a bit mixed for US Treasuries. Certainly, the most important weekly event was related to the inauguration of the new-old US President. The market was closely watching which pre-election promise will take place in the coming period. For the moment, promised tariffs on imported goods are set aside, so fear of potential inflation was a bit postponed. However, a new moment occurred when the President was addressing a business gathering in Davos, Switzerland, when he noted that he will request a drop in interest rates, immediately. Taking into account that decrease of interest rates is the responsibility of the FOMC in the US, this move from the US Administration currently remains unclear.
The 10Y US benchmark yields started the previous week around the level of 4,52% and moved up toward the level of 4,66%. At Friday's trading session, Treasury yields eased till the level of 4,61%. The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting on January 28-29, which is a promise of a potential volatile week. The “rejection” of the 4,65% level at Friday's trading session, implies a probability of a further decrease in Treasury yields, but not below the 4,55% level. On the opposite side, in a FOMC week, surprises are always possible.
US10YU.S. 10-Year Bond Analysis – Short-Term Dip, Long-Term Rise
Trump's tariff strategy isn't just about trade; it's also a tool to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates. He frequently emphasizes the need for lower rates, aiming to weaken the dollar and stimulate economic growth.
In the short term, this pressure could push bond yields lower. However, in the bigger picture, other macroeconomic forces suggest a longer-term uptrend.
For now, I see a temporary bearish move with two possible scenarios:
Plan A (More Likely): A drop confirmed by breaking 4.59, targeting 4.41, followed by a rebound towards 4.86 and 4.94.
Plan B: A corrective dip from around 4.71.
Despite short-term weakness, the broader trend remains bullish.
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BitCoin doesn’t understand the dark of the night during the dayBased on the performance of U.S. and Japanese stocks yesterday, the logic behind the Japanese interest rate hike is as follows: Previously, with low interest rates in Japan, people borrowed yen, exchanged it for dollars, and invested in U.S. stocks. So, when Japan raises interest rates, it reverses this process—liquidity flows back to Japan, the dollar weakens, U.S. stocks decline, and Japanese stocks rise. As shown in the chart, the candlestick represents the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and the blue vertical line marks the period of yesterday's movements in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, the dollar, and the yen. Therefore, Bitcoin, during the day, follows the rise of Japanese stocks, but at night, follows the decline of U.S. stocks. It’s truly like what the northeastern woman sings: "You don’t understand the dark of the night during the day."
US10Y: Buy signal on the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.381, MACD = 0.046, ADX = 33.861) as it is on a bearish wave insde the long term Channel Up pattern. The last HL bottom was priced on the 1D MA50. That is the most efficient buy entry to target the 4.0 Fibonacci extension (TP 5.100).
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US 10Y Yields - Is 5% Yields A Real Possibility? Happy new year traders!
This is a perfect time to do a review on Government Bond Yields as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias.
Here, we look into the technical and psychological elements as to why 5% might not be as soon as you think...
US 10Y TREASURY: not so scary inflationDuring the previous period, the 10Y US Treasury yields were heading toward the 4,8% level, in a fear of potential higher inflation in the US supported by the strong jobs market. However, posted inflation figures during the previous week, showed that the inflation level in December was modestly below market estimate. This was a sign for the market that the Fed might actually pursue with a planned two rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, Treasury yields tumbled down, toward the lowest weekly level of 4,57%. Still, they are ending the week at the level of 4,62%. In addition to a slowdown in inflation, a note from Fed Governor Waller that the Fed might cut multiple times this year, further cooled down the Treasury yields.
It could be expected that the markets will continue to consolidate in the coming period, after the inflation figures showed that there is a decreasing trend, regardless of a strong jobs market. However, there is still a day to watch on Monday, January 20th, where an inauguration of a new US administration will take place. There is some probability for a higher volatility on this day, but still, it could not be expected for some higher moves to either side.
US Recession, Yield Inversion And Unemployment Rate ChartThe chart combines the 3. The center blue horizontal line is the 0 line. When the yield curve "un-inverts", as it is happening now, recession follows.
Are We Forming A Top On The US10YR?It looks like we may be forming a top on the US10YR. I assume there will be some volatility in the first few months with the new Trump administration. Trump went on record saying that rates are currently too high. His last term in 2017, it took rates about 5-6 months to come down. Will this time be faster?
Bitcoin (BTC) vs. US 10-Year Treasury Yield AnalysisKey Dynamics:
Rising inflation has pushed the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (10YR Yield) higher, creating macro headwinds for Bitcoin as rising yields often reflect tighter financial conditions and increased risk aversion.
Despite this, Bitcoin has shown resilience, maintaining an upward trend in its price action.
Current Setup:
10YR Yield Resistance Zone:
The 4.70%-5.00% range is a critical resistance zone that has capped yields in the past.
A rejection at this level would signal easing inflation concerns and a potential stabilization in financial conditions, supporting BTC's bullish trajectory.
Breakout Scenario:
If the 10YR Yield breaks above 5%, it could signal further inflationary pressures or expectations of higher interest rates for longer.
This would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, potentially weighing on BTC's price.
Implications for Bitcoin:
Bullish Outlook:
A rejection at the 10YR Yield resistance, combined with improved inflation control, could act as a tailwind for BTC, enabling it to continue its upward momentum.
BTC’s trajectory could also benefit from a rotation of funds into risk assets as financial conditions stabilize.
Bearish Risks:
A breakout above 5% would likely put downward pressure on BTC, potentially leading to a period of consolidation or retracement in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Key Levels to Monitor:
10YR Yield:
Resistance at 4.70%-5.00% and the significance of a potential breakout or rejection.
BTC Support and Resistance:
Short-term support: $91,000-$93,000.
Resistance: $102,500-$105,000.
Conclusion:
Monitoring the interaction between the 10YR Yield and Bitcoin's price action is critical. While BTC's upward trend remains intact, a rejection in yields near 5% could strengthen bullish momentum, while a breakout above this level may present challenges. Upcoming economic data will play a significant role in shaping both the yield curve and BTC's trajectory in the near term.
US 10 yield finally dropping. Back to Risk-on assets.Bye bye $DXY/#Dollar and #US 10 Yield.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC back at 100K and everyone is reverting to risk-on assets.👏🙌
Some Needed Relief for RatesMortgage lenders can breathe today... we got some MUCH needed relief for rates.
US 10yr Yields Eyeing 5%?Chart Analysis:
The 10-Year US Treasury Yield continues to climb within a well-defined ascending channel, highlighting robust bullish momentum in recent months.
1️⃣ Ascending Channel:
Yields are trading near the upper boundary of the ascending channel (green-shaded area), reflecting sustained upward pressure.
Traders should monitor reactions at this boundary for potential breakout attempts or a pullback toward the channel’s midline.
2️⃣ Key Resistance Levels:
4.80%: Immediate resistance level, capping recent gains.
5.02%: A critical horizontal resistance zone, representing a multi-year high and potential target on continued strength.
3️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Trending upward at 4.33%, providing dynamic support.
200-day SMA (red): Rising at 4.24%, reinforcing the broader bullish trend.
4️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 75.68, signaling overbought conditions, which may precede a consolidation or corrective pullback.
MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong, with the MACD line above the signal line and in positive territory.
What to Watch:
Sustained breaks above 4.80% could pave the way for a test of 5.02%, with potential for further upside if this resistance fails.
Any pullback may find support near the 50-day SMA or the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
RSI overbought conditions suggest vigilance for potential divergences or reversal signals.
The 10-Year Yield’s bullish structure remains intact, supported by rising moving averages and upward momentum. However, caution is warranted as yields approach critical resistance levels.
-MW
