yield inversion triggerSPX may see a push if we get a pull back in the yield inversion...but longer term, notice that anytime the yield inversion unwinds...what follows is a dump in SPX...
US10Y trade ideas
Yields are pivoting....massive stock and metals rally to followI think most are leaning the wrong direction...I think yields and the DXY are pivoting and we will see a massive rally into year end for stocks and metals...
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside.
Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds.
- CFA Institute
TNote (US10Y) entering target area, expecting a pullbackThe TNote (US 10 year yield) has entered its target area for this up movement from the bottom.
Resistance area is between 4.65% to 5%.
We are expecting a pullback below 4% for the next months.
Then the uptrend should resume towards 7%, possibly higher.
A break above 5% would invalidate this view.
Bonds go down Stocks go up. The US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield goes down after each blue pivot point signal. At the same time, the SPX moves up 6 out of 7 times.
The US Government Bonds should come down a bit to the middle line of the bollinger bands and the SPX might move higher a bit.
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" |...who will win? | (Part.II)The market is waiting for one of the most important events that could give a clear direction for the coming months. Today FOMC will release interest rate decision and the main players ( TVC:DXY , TVC:GOLD , VANTAGE:SP500 and FX:EURUSD ) will suffer the consequences. Even if we cannot rule out a 25bp increase, most analysts believe that a pause may be the right choice, also because the usual press conference is not scheduled for the next FOMC meeting, so the board could take advantage of this opportunity, to explain this "temporary change in direction" to the market.
So, what will happen today? No I have an objective answer to this question, unfortunately I am not a guru but a simple Trader, so today we will limit ourselves to following events.
Having said that, from a technical point of view, we were lucky in March because we widely predicted this increase in yield rates from 3.30% area to a new high (wave 5 for Elliottians) in Part. I of this Analysis. On weekly chart the trend is bullish and the next technical levels are around 4.46%, 4.61% and 4.7%, but today TVC:US10Y could take any direction.
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" |...who will win? | (Part.I)
(Click on chart below)
Trade with care
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US 10Y TREASURY: digesting week is over?Markets spend the previous week digesting the latest information from the FOMC meeting regarding interest rates levels in the coming period, as well as FOMC economic projections for the next two years. It all created one quite a challenging week on US financial markets, as well as for the US Treasuries. The 10Y yields reached 4.5% immediately after the Fed Chair speech after the FOMC meeting on September 20th, however, during the previous week yields continued to surge further, reaching the highest weekly level at 4.67%. This could be treated as a sort of market overreaction, as yields soon returned to the level of 4.57% where they are finishing the week.
Yields continued to move within an overbought momentum for a second week in a row. This adds to the high probability that yields will further move toward the 4.5% levels which is more realistic to current economic prospectus and wording supported by the Fed. At this moment on charts, a 4.3% level could be the next target for 10Y yields, however, it might take some week or more until yields clearly reach this level.
US10year yieldHi my followers as i have said before i am bearish on us 10 year bond yield , So this is another fact why i am on that camp always ntice to price patterns on the charts .....dont go across them easily ...
Gooooood Luuuuuuck
There is a risk that $US10YR may further breach the 5% rate The US 10-YR Government Bond Yield is at risk of breaching further to as high as 5% which will then weign in more on the other safer haven yellow precious metal #Gold.
A rising yield for the past years since Covid erupted has brought pressure on both equity markets and Gold was never an excuse for this.
Why Gold shall keep falling? Real yields.dear fellows.
we believe gold prices are likely to keep falling, because unlike many analysts say, it is not a hedge against inflation, rather against real yields.
real yields have been rising, and thus, gold prices should fall.
in this video idea, we show how much divergence currently exists between these charts, and why in the next couple of weeks one can expect further losses in the gold price.
thank you for your attention.
best regards.
US BONDS 10 YEARS YIELD (daily)As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.
US bonds 10 years yield As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.
Inverted Yield US10Y-US02Y==Late 1970s to Early 1980s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted several times between the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Economic Outcome: The U.S. experienced two recessions during this period: one in 1980 and another in 1981-1982.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experiencing declines during these recessions.
==Late 1980s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 1988 and early 1989.
Economic Outcome: This inversion was followed by a mild recession in 1990.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a downturn in 1990, with the DJIA dropping by around 20%.
==Late 1990s to Early 2000s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in 2000.
Economic Outcome: The U.S. entered a recession in 2001, partly due to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market began a decline in 2000, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index dropping significantly due to the collapse of many internet-based companies.
==2006-2007:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 2006 and remained inverted into 2007.
Economic Outcome: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, triggered by a housing market crash and subsequent financial crisis.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market experienced a significant decline, with the DJIA losing more than 50% of its value from its peak in 2007 to its trough in 2009.
==2019:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in August 2019.
Economic Outcome: While many analysts were concerned about a potential recession, the U.S. economy remained resilient in 2019 and early 2020. However, the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a global economic downturn.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a sharp decline in early 2020 due to the pandemic, with the DJIA dropping by over 30% in a matter of weeks.
It's essential to note that while the inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the past, the exact timing between the inversion and the onset of a recession can vary. Additionally, other factors, such as global events, fiscal policies, and technological shifts, can also play significant roles in economic outcomes.
Why we expect EURUSD SPX to keep falling.Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further.
Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes.
The particular dynamics of each does not ensure a day to day follow up, however, eventually they do catch up.
Thank you very much for your time. Critics and suggestions are welcome.
Best regards.
US 10 Year Yield - hitting resistanceYields Surging on the long end. Hitting resistance.
Will this level hold and give the equity markets a breather to bounce?
If this continues to surge you will see a massive selloff in equities at some point as the bond market is pricing in entrenched inflation.
Long position US10YHi traders! 👋
Let's take a look at US 10 year bond yields. It's has been in an up trend for half a year now. We expect it to continue to the upside. Right now the price is testing the resistance line. We expect the price to come back to the historically strong support zone and bounce back upwards if it can hold the price. The target zone will be at the upper resistance line.
What do you think about this idea? Let us know in the comments!
US10YHi everybody start your shorting on us 10 y bond yield seriously but liitle by little .....big major resistance above that area .....enjoy this trade ....
Gooood Luuuuck
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50.
Prior idea:
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US 10yr Treasury Yield and Fed Liquidity Inverse CorrelationStill kicking since beginning of 2022.
Higher for longer
Treasury Spike...Seeing T-notes spike up like this while Fed paused Interest Rate Hikes are an environment for a market crash IMO
