10year and 2 year Yield Curve InversionThe 10-year and 2-year yields foreshadow a recession. However, the market top is indicated when the yield curve stops inverting around the green area.
US10Y trade ideas
$US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out' as the 10-year Treasury yield indeed reversed its upward trend, aligning with the bearish divergence signal. This divergence resolution may have led to a shift in market sentiment or investment strategies, impacting various sectors and asset classes."
10 years US Yield UP to 1.3%10 years US Yield UP to 1.3%,that position 2016.7,or 2020.2.at that time in 2016,FED pause Hike Rate in whole year.at sametime China supply Money to property, property price fly high in China.
The Bond Market is Pricing in a Collapse of The Yen Carry TradeThe spread between the US10Y and JP10Y has historically been a great leading indicator of contraction within the Yen Carry Trade and likely will be into the future.
If we were to apply TA to it, we can see that the spread appears to be Double Topping and has formed a Bearish Shark at this top as the RSI breaks down and the MACD Diverges. If we are to take this as a warning, then we should expect this spread to go down significantly, and that would be accompanied by the contraction of the Carry Trade, leading to lower liquidity and signfiicantly tighter credit conditions and ultimately a depreciation in market pricing.
I think we could see JPY and USD strength during this time but would avoid other currencies.
10 & 30 have short term topped since call on Oct 23GOOD MORNING!
Didn't have time to post yesterday.
Busy the entire day until I got home @ 9pm!\
10 Yr #yield topped the day the original tweet was posted.
30 Yr yield topped the following day!
#stocks #bonds TVC:TNX (See profile for more info)
10 minus 2 year Yield SpreadTime bomb...
1990-91
recession
2001
recession
2008-09
recession
2020
recession
#recession #gold #spx #purchasingpower
US 10Y yield has topped short-termThe Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% and the US 10Y yield sold off on the back of a less hawkish Fed.
The daily chart reveals a small top completed between 4.80-5.02 and this implies a short-term target of 4.58.
We are viewing this as a correction lower, rather than the end of the longer-term broader upward trend at this stage.
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Strongest Recession Signal EverThe yield curve has inverted to the most extreme degree ever, which is a warning that a recession is coming. In this video, I analyze the charts for the AMEX:SPY S&P 500, NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia, NASDAQ:AAPL Apple, and the yield curve on U.S. Treasurys to see what they're telling us about future price action.
In the video, I mention that the bull rally following the Great Recession was primarily due to the Fed's monetary easing. The chart below shows evidence of this. When the value of the assets added to the Fed's balance sheet is compared against the value of the S&P 500, the stock market appears to have essentially moved horizontally. This shows that the primary reason for the stock market's rally is the central bank's extreme expansion of its balance sheet.
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Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Possible bull flag? Pretty new to this. Looking for feedback to this idea. If breakout occurs, target is approximately the pole height.
Pick your fib target. How far do Bonds crash?Inverse chart of US 10 year bond yields.
6.249% looks like near certainty.
8%, 10% & 12% are all on the table.
US 10-year yield topped out?The US 10-year yield is showing signs of topping out after recently touching a 16-year high just above 5.00%. It’s still too early to confirm that long-term yields have topped out but given the entrenched inflation, risk-off sentiment and growing US government debt, US long-term yields will probably remain elevated until the Fed’s interest rate policy becomes clearer. Yields of 4.80% is the first level of support and a break below this level will allow yields to ease lower towards 4.50%.
There is also a degree of divergence on the RSI that I'm keeping my eye on.
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting FOMCThe US Treasury yields eased a bit during the previous week, as inflation data are showing further relaxation in inflation figures. The 10Y US benchmark tested 5.0% level at the start of the previous week, however, the week ended at level of 4.83%. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 1st, but current expectations are that the Fed will not further increase interest rates due to the latest posted inflation figures. However, Fed Chair Powell's statement after the meeting will be closely watched, which might bring some volatility back in Treasury yields.
The 10Y Treasury yields will start the week ahead by testing 4.8% level. At this point on charts, there is no indication that yields have opted to return to the levels of 5.0% and above, in which sense, some further relaxation to the downside is probable. In this case, 4.6% might be a probable target and a short stop on the road toward 4.4% in the weeks to come.
10 Year wants 5%...at a minimumDo you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out?
Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum.
"Don't fight the Fed"
The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone think this is on the horizon?
Here are the 3 things Powell stated would need to happen for a pause (not a pivot ) at Jackson Hole:
1. Lower Growth
2. Softening Labor Market
3. Inflation on pace to 2%.
2022 Q2 vs. Q3 GDP came in positive and much stronger than expected, Jobs reports remain hot and inflation isn't anywhere near 2%. So at this point, we can't even check off any boxes for a possible pause in rate hikes let alone a pivot . In addition, Powell hasn't really wavered in his statements since Covid, he's been pretty straightforward, so why would he all of a sudden change his behavior?
US10Y: Channel Up intact but first time on a Bearish Divergence.US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's bottom, we will see and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 4.600). Until then, we will but on the first 1D candle that closes under the S1 level, aiming at a +10.70% rise (TP = 5.185).
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10YR Treasury to Resume Rise Post-FedThe 10yr has taken a break in the past couple days off it's highs. This is normal but and happens regularly in the relentless overall path upwards in rates. The Fed has made all the signals that they are blind to the supply and demand issues of treasuries and willing to allow the market to do what it will as long as it results in less inflation. Chairman Powell in his September 26th speech stated that he still does not believe rates are restrictive enough and with a 4.9% GDP - although questionable at best - he will likely continue his hawkish tone in the November 1st meeting. Once the market realizes there will be another period in which no help is coming - along with a massive issuance of treasuries coming in November and in the line up for 2024 - rates will continue to rise into the end of the year. Target is 5.5% by EOY. I expect it to be choppy, but we won't be stopping here at 5%.
We broke about the blue horizontal line which is a Gann fan dating back to 1982's peak in rates. This is the first time in 40 years we've risen above this line and we've stayed over it. The pace higher will continue until something breaks or the Fed changes tone on their QT policy.
No one wants our treasuries - Japan, China, etc. The Fed isn't buying and Yellen keeps adding billions more to the market weekly. Important dates are November 8th and 9th where the 10 year and 30 year auctions take place. A bad auction could be the onset of the rise if the Fed doesn't provide that on Nov 1.
When in doubt zoom out! 10 year likely falls to 4.73% next week giving stocks a reversal opportunity to trade back above 4,200.
B/C phase currently getting underway. TIMBERRRR
#US10Y Yields perhaps a little extended here short term?Got to be brave trying to run infront of this steamroller, but we are starting to see signs of bearish divergence where price(yield) is making higher highs, not confirmed by the RSI and MACD which are currently making lower highs. This could be warning of a short term reprieve in yields which could be bullish risk assets. However, given the current environment with conflict in the middle east, one has to becareful
this chart signals equities have peakednow the price of this chart is rising.
This means the yield of 10Y bond is rising
harder then the 2 year. which means
debt is more expensive. which means less
cheap money. money is still cheap in real terms
but now less cheap than a year ago.
what will the central bankers do?
inflation is hidden but still high and if your smart
you know the govt numbers are understated.
inflation tax is gonna wreck you.
US 10 YEAR YIELDS (UPDATE)🚀Despite hitting our target, the US10Y has kept pushing much higher due to economic uncertainty. Biden has requested for an extra $100 billion in Congress to fund the Russia & Ukraine war, to give money to Taiwan & more money to Israel, to carry on their genocide against Palestine.
If this $100 billion is approved, then we can expect Bond prices to carry on crashing, while the US10Y keeps reaching new highs.
Bond yields crashing down from here. My TA shows that bond yields will crash down here with the dollar (dxy). BTC just launched up and I believe the stock market is next.
$US10Y Negative Divergence RSITVC:US10Y Negative Divergence RSI The TVC:US10Y showcases a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicates that while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might be increasing, the momentum behind this rise is weakening. Historically, such divergences in the RSI can signal potential trend reversals or price corrections in the near future. Investors and traders should be cautious and closely monitor subsequent price actions and other technical indicators to validate this potential divergence.
How the Fed affects long Bond YieldsInverse chart of US10Y Yield to show changes in Bond prices.
Overlayed with the following:
Fed Funds Rate
US Treasury Deposits to Federal Reserve Banks
Increase/Decrease Rate of change to Fed Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Total in separate pane below
The USCBBS Percentage Change shows the money raining down :-D
It's clear to see the relationship between the Fed buying Treasuries, i.e. Quantitative Easing (QE) and the increase in US10Y prices.
Quantitative Tightening (QT) is the name of the game now. There is A LOT of QT left to do, we're at most 25% into QT since the Fed has only rolled off roughly 1Trillion. They likely have 3+ Trillion to go. Expect US10Y to be under continued pressure as long as QT is in effect. Even when Fed Funds rates are lowered it will have little effect on US10Y while the biggest buyer of Treasuries is on hiatus.
