US10Y Bond Short on Regression BreakUS10Y is now net-short on regression break.
I am considering this pair, along with the 02Y and 05Y bonds.
Looking at EA that best suit the situation
US10Y trade ideas
U.S. 10-Year Yield (US10Y): Traders Watch Key LevelsThe U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is one of the most important indicators in the financial world, influencing everything from mortgage rates to stock market trends. It reflects investor confidence in the economy, rising when expectations for growth and inflation increase and falling when investors seek safer assets. The yield is closely watched by traders, economists, and policymakers as a key gauge of market sentiment.
The chart recently showed a confirmation bar, moving into the momentum zone, which happens when the price rises above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This signals a potential continuation in trend direction and increased interest from investors around inflation.
EUR/USD short: End of the rebound higherHello traders
My TP at 1.0370 was executed on my long EUR/USD position.
I have initiated a short EUR/USD position after Chair Powell's testimony this morning.
He expressed confidence in the economy staying robust and that there is no rush to cut interest rates.
The chart is my guiding light on a daily basis to determine which direction risk is heading.
EUR/USD is heading down again after testing the daily breakdown at 1.0382. USD CPI tomorrow MAY reverse the tide again, so keep a close eye on all these asset classes.
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Best of luck all.
Results Of QE TighteningWhat you're seeing in this chart is the 10 year. A great one to watch to see what the market is thinking. The 10 year is showing the results of QE tightening and Trumps willingness to curb the debt problem. What Trump is doing is healthy, this market needs it. To the moon does not last forever. It is looking like a twist coming in the MACD but looking previously it would have been considered a fake out. Unless Trump comes in and saves this market tomorrow could be a bloodbath. This scenario is on borrowed time regardless. We are literally bleeding dollar bills out of our ears. BRICS abandoned the dollar as we know, although tradable. During the Great Depression JP Morgan bailed out the market. People said he saved people but the people that were wiped were already gone, he saw the bottom coming in which just made JP Morgan the wealthiest company in history. Fast forward to now, nobody is bailing $37 trillion. This an end game, again, unless Trump or The Fed steps in.
US 10Y Yields - Perfect Discount Delivery!Let’s take a deep dive into Yields and have a look at how price delivered throughout last week.
The week prior, I posted that we will be seeing discount prices; 4.468% equilibrium draw in the near future and we absolutely smashed that price region.
US 10Y TREASURY: higher on inflation expectationsThe major data release during the previous week was the US jobs report. The on-farm payrolls were lower from market expectations, at the level of 143K, however, this was not a concern of the market. The major indicator which moved the US Treasury yields to the higher grounds was a drop in unemployment combined with an increase in hourly earnings of 0,5% and higher from markets initial estimate. The increase in wages implies higher consumption and in the last instance, higher inflation. In addition, the Michigan inflation expectations rose to the level of 4,1%, indicating that US consumer sentiment stands on expectation of a higher inflation during this year. This was a signal to markets that the Fed will potentially hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time.
The 10Y US benchmark rose on Friday to the level of 4,51%, but ended the week at 4,49%. Investors will certainly use the week ahead to digest the latest jobs data in the US. In this sense, some smaller correction in yields might be possible. Still, the US trade tariffs continue to be a concern of investors, in which sense, any negative news related to imposed tariffs might swiftly push the yields again to the higher grounds.
CPI week for US 10-year yieldsSince my last idea on US10-year yields the Fed opted to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.50% and the latest NFP print came in at a lackluster 143 thousand in January, down from 307 thousand in December. These two events provide a contradicting impact for US longer term yields as the weaker labour market results is indicative that the Fed may have to continue cutting rates to stimulate the economy, which is positive for bonds, while the Feds decision to pause rates plays the ball into the court of a move higher in yields towards 5.00%.
US 10-year yields touched a low of 4.4% last week before the 50-day MA at 4.50% provided support. The 50-day MA is my critical level to watch as a break below this level will invalidate my ideas calling for a move towards 5.00%. A failed move above 4.50% will allow bond bulls to pull yields onto the 200-day MA at 4.25% which coincides with the blue downward neckline and the 61.8 Fibo retracement.
A break above 4.50% will however support my idea of a 5-wave impulse higher towards 5.00%.
The week ahead has two major events on the cards that will influence the US bond market. The first of which is Fed chair Powell’s testimony before congress. I’m not expecting anything new here besides the usual gibberish and double-speak but keep an ear out for the status of the Fed’s taper progress and any comments on the low liquidity levels of the Fed’s reverse repo facility.
The next event is where the significance lies, the US CPI print for January which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. Inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the US 10-year yields packing and making its way to 5.00% since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer.
Also worth noting is that the US 10-year yield topped out at 4.8% when the CPI print came in as expected at 2.9% so this time around a stronger than expected print may serve to mark the bottom at 4.4%. (Always remember, CPI is a lie).
YS10Y 4H10-Year Treasury Bond Analysis
The analysis is progressing very accurately and in line with the previous forecast, and we are following it with confidence.
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Head & Shoulder 10 Year Bond - Possible Bond Yield ReversalIn this chart I noticed the 10 Year Bond is forming a Head & Shoulders Pattern. If this plays out it would be Bullish !!! Typically when the 10-Year Bond retraces asset prices go up. Aka Prices increase to the upside !!
The RSI is also bouncing from lows nearly reaching the oversold level but not quite. It's possible that there is more downside left on the RSI and that levels continue to go down. I will be watching the RSI closely to see how it changes over the following days and weeks.
This market is CRAZY !!!
LONG 10YR Note FuturesThis could have just as well been 10Y. Forex or ZN Futures in any case a rate play in a cycle of increasing commodity prices (Cocoa, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton, Cattle, etc...) so to the 10yr rate in a period of accelerating rates and accelerating to stagnant growth. We are here at the edge or LOWER BOUND of a daily risk range volatility adjusted in a bull market which means its time to pull the trigger. Play a stop on a break a little bit below the trend line to your own risk tolerance but give it a little room to breathe.
Is the US 10Y yield dropping below 4%?My short-term profit-generating system is giving a strong signal that the US 10Y yield is about to drop below the 4% level.
The US Treasury market is regaining its safe haven status.
US 10Y Yields - End of January AnalysisToday is an important day as it marks the first day of a new month, giving me the added advantage of analysing the full month’s candle close as well as a weekly close.
Here, I share with you how fundamentals this month affected price action and where in the medium to long term the market can reprice up/down into.
The highs for the month is 4.809%
The lows for the month is 4.488%
Candle body closure above 4.818% will negate my bearish notion of retracing down into the November 2024 monthly bullish order block.
"the top is in", "for the rates"gm,
markets tend to be forward looking, and based off my understanding + the chart data, it appears the top is in for the rates.
i predict the market will begin to price in future rate cuts and start bringing the us10y down.
this will open the door to a "risk on" enviroment for big tech, as well as risk assets like crypto .
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the count on the us10y is relatively simple.
5 waves up from the 2020 lows.
predicting 3 waves down into the year ahead.
the low on the us10y should coincide with a high in the global liquidity index,,, which is set to peak into the end first month of 2026.
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ps. check out the last us10y update from 2 years ago via:
US 10Y TREASURY: relieved tensions, for the momentMuch of the tension collected for the last month has been relieved after the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected and also there were no surprises when it comes to the future course of inflation and potential Fed moves. However, Friday was a game changer, as the US President announced implementation of new import tariffs for goods coming from Canada, Mexico and China. Although the 10Y Treasury yields reached the 4,48% on Thursday, still, Friday news reverted the course of yields to the upside, bringing them to the level of 4,58%.
It will certainly take the next week until markets digest all new information regarding tariffs and its potential effect on the US economy. This also might have implications on the future course of inflation and also in the last instance, to Fed interest rate decisions in the future. For the week ahead, it should also be taken into account that non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are scheduled for a release, in which sense, market volatility might continue.
1Q2025 updateJust a quick update on my previous idea linked below. The US 10-year yield has come off and completed a 4th wave lower onto the 50-day MA of 4.83%. If this support and the current upward channel holds its ground, I expect a 5th wave higher to rip yields toward the 5% level.
A break below the blue support range between 4.45% and 4.5% will however invalidate the move and allow yields to ease towards 4.20%.
President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit.
Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive?
Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar...
Additionally, attached in the comments is the progress that the Fed has made on its balance sheet taper. So far so good, neither the US bond nor repo market hasn't crashed het like it did in September 2019 but another rip higher in US long dated treasuries might just be the spark that lights the kerosene-soaked rug which will force the Fed to step back into the bond market.
US 10Y Yields - Chasing Lower YieldsAssessing the weekly range, from low to high, it is clear to me that the yields is still trading in a premium and with major liquidity pools attacked to the upside, it's only a matter of time we see a cooldown period.
Below 4.469% is regarded as a discount and it might take several of weeks to pan out but I would like to see the weekly bearish consequent encroachment @ 4.735% respected with 4.809% being the last line of defence.
US10Y will turn bullish on its 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 17 2024 Low and is currently on its Bearish Leg. This is now approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), below which the last Higher Low was priced that initiated the Bullish Leg.
With the 1D RSI approaching the same level as then, this is the ideal level to go long again and target 5.000%, which is just below the October 23 2023 Resistance.
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US10Y afternoon analysisTechnical analysis for US10Y.
This count is looking for one more push up in yields, approaching (but not going above) 5.215%. Median line is target.
This would complete an expanded flat that started in 2012.
This analysis would suggest the end of the bond bear market is approaching, as long as 5.215% holds as resistance. Yields above 5.215% would suggest much higher yields are likely.
Yields below 4.505% before move above 5% would also invalidate this count.
US 10Y TREASURY: a FOMC weekThe previous week was a bit mixed for US Treasuries. Certainly, the most important weekly event was related to the inauguration of the new-old US President. The market was closely watching which pre-election promise will take place in the coming period. For the moment, promised tariffs on imported goods are set aside, so fear of potential inflation was a bit postponed. However, a new moment occurred when the President was addressing a business gathering in Davos, Switzerland, when he noted that he will request a drop in interest rates, immediately. Taking into account that decrease of interest rates is the responsibility of the FOMC in the US, this move from the US Administration currently remains unclear.
The 10Y US benchmark yields started the previous week around the level of 4,52% and moved up toward the level of 4,66%. At Friday's trading session, Treasury yields eased till the level of 4,61%. The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting on January 28-29, which is a promise of a potential volatile week. The “rejection” of the 4,65% level at Friday's trading session, implies a probability of a further decrease in Treasury yields, but not below the 4,55% level. On the opposite side, in a FOMC week, surprises are always possible.
US10YU.S. 10-Year Bond Analysis – Short-Term Dip, Long-Term Rise
Trump's tariff strategy isn't just about trade; it's also a tool to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates. He frequently emphasizes the need for lower rates, aiming to weaken the dollar and stimulate economic growth.
In the short term, this pressure could push bond yields lower. However, in the bigger picture, other macroeconomic forces suggest a longer-term uptrend.
For now, I see a temporary bearish move with two possible scenarios:
Plan A (More Likely): A drop confirmed by breaking 4.59, targeting 4.41, followed by a rebound towards 4.86 and 4.94.
Plan B: A corrective dip from around 4.71.
Despite short-term weakness, the broader trend remains bullish.
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BitCoin doesn’t understand the dark of the night during the dayBased on the performance of U.S. and Japanese stocks yesterday, the logic behind the Japanese interest rate hike is as follows: Previously, with low interest rates in Japan, people borrowed yen, exchanged it for dollars, and invested in U.S. stocks. So, when Japan raises interest rates, it reverses this process—liquidity flows back to Japan, the dollar weakens, U.S. stocks decline, and Japanese stocks rise. As shown in the chart, the candlestick represents the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and the blue vertical line marks the period of yesterday's movements in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, the dollar, and the yen. Therefore, Bitcoin, during the day, follows the rise of Japanese stocks, but at night, follows the decline of U.S. stocks. It’s truly like what the northeastern woman sings: "You don’t understand the dark of the night during the day."
US10Y: Buy signal on the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.381, MACD = 0.046, ADX = 33.861) as it is on a bearish wave insde the long term Channel Up pattern. The last HL bottom was priced on the 1D MA50. That is the most efficient buy entry to target the 4.0 Fibonacci extension (TP 5.100).
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