yield ratio vs bond priceillustrating the overshoots from yield ratio formula (1/rate) when compared to bond price formula 100 - rateby wisely381
GLOBAL MARKET BOND YIELDS SIGNALS BULLISH STRENGTHThe gloabal financial markets have a direct correlation with each other The interest rates are no exception to this rule. Notice that the TVC:US10Y forms an SMT(Smart Money Divergence) with the rest of the Bond yields TVC:US10Y takes out the Sellside Liqudity while TVC:GB10Y and TVC:DE10Y did not take out their respective lows. This signal Huge accumulation of longs on German and Britain's Bond Yields This should melt Treasury Bonds and Sink the Stock MarketsLongby ifeanyichukwu_E224
Are US10Y Bond Yields really gonna plummet?With USD recently becoming a less attractive asset to hold following the recent dump and bubble burst, US10Y bond yields are not demonstrating a very appealing picture as well. Technical aspects are as follow: 1- Daily TF Cup and Handle reversal pattern 2- Uptrend lower trendline Broken 3- It has made a first Lower High and Lower Low and still pushing lower with small frame corrections King USD is in a bad shape guys with continuous loss of investor interest. Plan your trades accordingly, Best of Luck and Happy Trading :-)Shortby Uzi-Trades-Forex2
us10y Compared to goldHello friends, I hope you are well Well, I want to see this chart together US 10-year Treasuries have reached a support since they started to fall Gold followed an upward rally And now gold has reached an important resistance, and in my opinion, the price of gold will drop very soon, and in the next week, I think the price of gold will decrease. And on the other hand, the US 10-year bond has started an upward rally And from a technical point of view, we see that it has an upward path This is just my personal opinion Good luckby farzad_abdollahzade116
US10YYields can explode from here as earning on US equities disappoint on earnings and job losses set in job lossesby Mike_SnD3
How will markets react to rising yield and dollar?Moving averages can be applied to many things, from stocks and currencies to fitness measures and crop harvests. Here, the candles show US10Y is finding support off the 200ma, after making a significant decline. The 20ma (blue) and 50ma (dark blue) will indicate the yield's next trend as they separate. The green line graph shows a serious decline in the U.S. dollar. As the orange short-term trendline shows, it may be ready to move a little higher. The yield and dollar may not rise back to the highs, but they definitely can move up for a bounce in the near term. If the recent relationship continues, then this would create selling pressure for global and tech stocks while giving another lift to defensive sectors. Here's a little-known fact to watch out for: Starting in January, a new formula is being used to calculate CPI (consumer price index) data. The first release of this will be in February and the numbers are expected to increase relative to Dec. data. The new calculation will update spending weights annually (using one year's data) instead of biennally. Thus be alert to the possibility that markets react negatively to a high Jan. CPI, as the majority now think prices are coming down. On the flip side if CPI is in-line or lower even with the new formula, then markets will get quite a lift. www.federalregister.govby OptionsRising224
US 10 YR YIELD - ObservationThe US10YR has now retraced to the 200dma and close to the yearly pivot point.by Trader-Dan3
US 2/10 yield spread in a for a massive reversalUS 2/10 yield spread approaching macro support. TA bottom might be slowly forming too (need confirmation) Expecting the spread to reach 0 before the summer while the rest will be history buckle upby EdHeenok1
Looking for #us10y to find Higher LowsLooking for #us10y to find Higher Lows and continuation to the upside as new highs were made. #us10y moves opposite to the #crypto market. Longby awakensoul_3692
bombs awayAre #gold shorts paying attention to anything? All support is lost on #us10y, and now even closing below weekly EMA30 (shown in blue)!Shortby DollarCostAverage2
Looking to Short 10's On a breakdown on the daily, ill be shorting 10 year bonds. High on all the higher timeframes. Shortby Chad_McDeid11
US yields looking for another move upLooks to have formed +ve divergence on RSI. FED are NOT going to pause/pivot in coming weeks. Data still ok as a whole and until much softer yields have to go/stay higher for longer than people think. Longby WVS_Stockscreen111
Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year RatesI begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start with rates. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but having a framework for markets and for recognizing change is important. Last year’s thoughts, including extensive fundamental background, are linked. In this piece I will recap my views on the monthly chart and follow next week with my view on the weekly chart and conclusions. A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield = a bull market in bonds. Over the last four decades bonds had consistently and reliably made lower highs and lower lows. The entire bull market was defined by a broad declining channel (A-B, C-D). The A-B downtrend line represented the "stride of demand" or the zone where buyers consistently emerged and the C-D line represented the "overbought line" or the zone where supply consistently emerged. From 2012 forward there were growing signs that the long downtrend was aging. Four things stood out. 1) The repeated failure to push to the oversold line (C-D). 2) The flattening out of the decline where each push to a new yield low only covered around 100 bps. 3) The 2018 spike to 3.25% that weakened the primary A-B downtrend. 4) In March of 2020 bonds pushed to the area around the center of the channel, and again failed to push into the overbought line (C-D), suggesting that demand was tiring. These very visible change of behavior strongly suggested that the 40 year downtrend was in danger. Now, the clear break and acceleration above the A-B downtrend has moved the long trend from bullish to neutral. While it’s likely that the move above November 2018 pivot @ 3.25% coupled with the changes of behavior mark the beginning of a long term bear market, a higher low (perhaps forming over the first half of 2023) is needed to complete/confirm that change. Note the additional changes in behavior. The 400 bps move from 0.33% to 4.33% represents the single largest bearish move since the inception of the bull market in September 1981 and the current MACD oscillator level has far exceeded the levels that marked yield highs over the course of the entire bull market. Triple Screen: Daily, Weekly, Monthly: There are several key fundamental points around rates: -The defining macro characteristic of the 40 year bull market has been the continual fall in the inflation rate. If that is changing, the secular bond trend is likely to also change. -If the trend in inflation is changing, the negative correlation between bonds and equity that drives 60/40 allocation and risk parity investing is likely to flip and become positive. In other words, bonds and equity would, outside of periods of panic, rise and fall together destroying the diversification benefit. This has been the historical norm and I expect that the market will gradually move in that direction. -The caveat being this: Quantitative easing removed the value proposition from bonds, when equities began to decline this year bonds COULDN'T provide a safe haven… they were already far too expensive, particularly in context of a Federal Reserve that was aggressively tightening monetary policy, that is no longer the case. Bonds, while still expensive can again provide a tactical hedge should risk assets weaken dramatically. -At first glance, this seems at odds with the with the change in correlation discussed above, but it is a difference between the secular tide verses the intermediate wave. -Most substantive bond rallies have been the result of a crisis that created a flight to quality. In an economy that is overly financialized and levered, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain, creating a new crisis and a subsequent flight to quality rally. While so far, there is little evidence of a systemic crisis, the lagged effect of the rapid increase in rates in an overly financialized system demands attention. Bottom Line: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the deflationary backdrop of the last several decades to an inflationary backdrop. I will be a much better seller of rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur. by CMT_Association5757625
US10YUS 10-Year Bond Yield | Chart #1 | The rejection of the re-test of the channel breakdown is seeing further downside follow-through. The yield is trading near the early-December lows of 3.4% of which a downside breach would create a further short term technical tailwind for bonds (i.e. yields down, bond prices up). US 10-Year Bond Yield | Chart #2 (not shown) | Note that the yield is close to it's first re-test of it's rising 200-day moving average since 29 December 2021. Usually, the 1st test after a prolonged absense is met with support, possible an overshoot to the downside followed by a rebound. Let's see how it acts if and when it gets there. by techpers116
US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##by InvestingScope2214
US 10Y Yield at key inflection pointMarket looks fragile, and has potential for a sharp reversal lower.Shortby TheHermitTrader_111
US10YTesting the waters here- as i have taken a long break from TA and want to experiment with new ideas. by AToTheMoon11
Will the backup hold?The 10 year T is fighting the line. A bounce and break of current downtrend could mean more pain. But a break of the secondary support would demolish the bears as it would signal my long-expected blow-off top in the U.S. stock market. Stay tuned.Shortby stewdamus221
10YR-02YR Inversion (Daily) 01/11/2023Well this inversion is probably more popular than the 10yr-03mo, and it also keeps looking worse! They are both inverted pretty deep as I mentioned on the 10-3mo published chart. This is also often a key leading recession indicator.Longby Markets-Sniper0
10YR-3MO Inversion (Daily) - 01/11/2023Well this keeps looking worse! Many follow the 10-2y, some prefer this 10y-3mo yield curve. They are both inverted pretty deep. This is often a key leading recession indicator.Longby Markets-Sniper0
US10y vs FED rate. Should u put $ into bank or buy gold? 10/Jan/US2Y and 10Y bonds yields always “follow” FED rate paths. Now we “see” some “experts” encouraged us to “save” money into banks (especially USD denominated a.c) to gain higher rate. Hope to enjoy high fixed guaranteed return like early 1980s which was above 10%!!! Looking at those chart and gold price do you think “fixed deposits “ into bank is “worth” as investments?by SteveTan222
Are the 2 and 10 year bond markets calling JPOW's bluff?In this video I cover the divergence between the 2 and 10 year treasuries and the recent FOMC press conference language. Jerome Powell is promising one thing (continued rate increases), while the bond market seems to be claiming otherwise (Fed pause incoming). Who's right? Let's take a closer look.Short20:02by stewdamus5
Potential bull flag pattern formation 1D timeframe on US10Yjust sharing a potential bull flag pattern formation on the daily timeframe for US10Y. current candle bounces on the 0.5 fib level, would affect negatively for stocks and BTC if this plays out. Longby KinsfatherUpdated 1