10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession Using a 10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession. June 2025 is when the market will start to improve if history repeats itself.
US10Y trade ideas
10yr-2yr Inversion VS Stock market bottomThe last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened.
Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength.
The FED has made it clear there will be more pain ahead, and they will only strengthen their resolve next meeting.
Either way, a .50 basis or a .75 move is on the table stocks will not bottom until the inversion starts to un-invert, as proven in the past.
US10Y < EFFRIt has been interesting yesterday.
Now the US10Y is starting to go below the FFR.
This is the BOND market saying that the PIVOT is near.
The market is anticipating a rate cut in 07/2023.
Key level closingMonthly key level from 2006 is about to be tapped. Close above it, and stock market will be in BIG trouble. Rejection on weekly and monthly level here would give us a breathing space.
Key level: 4.4xx%
Fractal Alert, US 10Y, will the fractal repeat?Fractal repeat will be ominous to the asset classes, will it repeat? Caveat Emptor
10Y yields seem to be toppishTHe US 10Y treasury yields seem to have reach an important exhaustion point to complete its A wave. Expecting a pullback towards at least 3.40% if not 2.83%. Then another up-wave should follow that could reach the 7% eventually.
US 10Y YIELDS BUY OPPORTUNITYUS 10y buying oppoetunity we have beautifull breakout of structre and now retracing as regular flat may it will fly from given area good luck
Collapse after US debt callbackThe US bond yield has been confirmed to enter two waves of correction, and the two rounds of decline will drop more than 55% in total. Then it began to pull up violently. Even if the yield of US debt increased crazily, no one bought it. It can be inferred from this K line that in the next decade, the United States will have serious problems, possibly a war with China. The result is close to being killed together or the United States won miserably. Those who have the ability and conditions should stay away from these two countries for their families and themselves.
US 10Y heading to 3.75%US 10Y seems to be completing B wave and C wave correction to start .. First target is 3.75%
$US10y-$us02y US 10s minus 2's AMAZING-
ALL I CAN POST, I HAVE NO OTHER WORD THAN TO USE CAPS LOCK!
This is the beginning of the END!
US10Y Bond Yield Simple Chart AnalysisOn the other hand, 10Y bond supported & rebound to reattempt the previous high fall 4.3 area. Once break, 5.2 will be the next target.
This will be very bad for tech sector if this 10Y bond continue to rise. Can for see investor that invest into stock market will cash everything out & put into safe heaven place.
US10Y About to drop strongly after the 0.75% hike?The US10Y recently broke below the August Higher Lows trendline and remains below the 4H MA50 since October 25. The bearish divergence that RSI's Lower Lows suggested is identical to the one in April, May. The price patterns are very similar and this was a sell signal that dropped to the 1D MA50 and the Support of the previous Higher Low.
We have drawn these levels on the current pattern and that Support is at 3.567 while the 1D MA50 at 3.667. With the 1D RSI still on Lower Highs and Lower Lows and the 1W STOCH RSI on a Sell Cross, we expect the US10Y to hit at least the 1D MA50.
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$Dxy #usd don't click.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
US10Y - Possible directions Morning All.
Here is my idea on a couple possible outcomes
Be safe , Be informed keep it real.
I am a student of the art do not trade my ideas.
$tnx entering sideways consolidation US10Y, aka $tnx is likely entering a phase of sideways consolidation before another leg up
Last time it came out of a bear market bottom, it took $tnx 11 years to clear the 4-5% area for good and begin its long term uptrend phase...
11 years that $spx used to compound gains of 180%
(long pertains to $spx) for yields perhaps long 3% is a good idea! but imo the easy money on yields has been made by now.
US 10 Y to go lower in the short term4% resistance is strong.
expect the central planners to step in
and lower rates. as the economy can
not handle real postive interest rates.
they are still negative....
gold has been held down...
expect gold to bounce in jan 2023
and yeilds to go lower. remember you are not free
and there are no free markets.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bullish Engulfing in Focus Before FedThe US 10-year Treasury yield left behind a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart this Friday.
This is as the bond tested a rising range of support from August.
A turn higher from here could open the door to revisiting the October high of 4.33.
Otherwise, breaking lower exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average, which could reinstate the upside focus.
All eyes next week turn to the Fed, which is expected to deliver a 75-basis point rate hike. The focus will rather be on their language going forward as markets increasingly expect moderation.
TVC:US10Y
Big inflection point for bond yields Bond yields are now into the test area in the area of the retracement.
Many calling for a reversal in bonds but IMO we need to get through the current levels. If a low in yields is due, it's coming from around here.
I still stick to my original forecast, until it's shown to be invalid.
US10Y Huge Bearish Divergence on RSI calls a drop!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside.
What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always pulled-back and hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is currently at 3.563 (and rising).
A reversal on the bond yields can have a major impact on the financial markets, especially ahead of next week's Fed Rate Decision, as it is negatively correlated with stocks and Gold.
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Adjusting long term fib retrace I’ve adjusted the long term Fibonacci retrace to raise the first resistance zone at 4.15%.
Bond 10 year yield losing momentumDivergence shows up on the RSI versus the yield recent swing highs at the top of a channel. If yields are going to spring out of this channel and continue in this direction a pull back first should be expected. Of course it could be the top but as yet that is not evident.
