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US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year RatesI begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start with rates. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but having a framework for markets and for recognizing change is important. Last year’s thoughts, including extensive fundamental background, are linked. In this piece I will recap my views on the monthly chart and follow next week with my view on the weekly chart and conclusions. A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield = a bull market in bonds. Over the last four decades bonds had consistently and reliably made lower highs and lower lows. The entire bull market was defined by a broad declining channel (A-B, C-D). The A-B downtrend line represented the "stride of demand" or the zone where buyers consistently emerged and the C-D line represented the "overbought line" or the zone where supply consistently emerged. From 2012 forward there were growing signs that the long downtrend was aging. Four things stood out. 1) The repeated failure to push to the oversold line (C-D). 2) The flattening out of the decline where each push to a new yield low only covered around 100 bps. 3) The 2018 spike to 3.25% that weakened the primary A-B downtrend. 4) In March of 2020 bonds pushed to the area around the center of the channel, and again failed to push into the overbought line (C-D), suggesting that demand was tiring. These very visible change of behavior strongly suggested that the 40 year downtrend was in danger. Now, the clear break and acceleration above the A-B downtrend has moved the long trend from bullish to neutral. While it’s likely that the move above November 2018 pivot @ 3.25% coupled with the changes of behavior mark the beginning of a long term bear market, a higher low (perhaps forming over the first half of 2023) is needed to complete/confirm that change. Note the additional changes in behavior. The 400 bps move from 0.33% to 4.33% represents the single largest bearish move since the inception of the bull market in September 1981 and the current MACD oscillator level has far exceeded the levels that marked yield highs over the course of the entire bull market. Triple Screen: Daily, Weekly, Monthly: There are several key fundamental points around rates: -The defining macro characteristic of the 40 year bull market has been the continual fall in the inflation rate. If that is changing, the secular bond trend is likely to also change. -If the trend in inflation is changing, the negative correlation between bonds and equity that drives 60/40 allocation and risk parity investing is likely to flip and become positive. In other words, bonds and equity would, outside of periods of panic, rise and fall together destroying the diversification benefit. This has been the historical norm and I expect that the market will gradually move in that direction. -The caveat being this: Quantitative easing removed the value proposition from bonds, when equities began to decline this year bonds COULDN'T provide a safe haven… they were already far too expensive, particularly in context of a Federal Reserve that was aggressively tightening monetary policy, that is no longer the case. Bonds, while still expensive can again provide a tactical hedge should risk assets weaken dramatically. -At first glance, this seems at odds with the with the change in correlation discussed above, but it is a difference between the secular tide verses the intermediate wave. -Most substantive bond rallies have been the result of a crisis that created a flight to quality. In an economy that is overly financialized and levered, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain, creating a new crisis and a subsequent flight to quality rally. While so far, there is little evidence of a systemic crisis, the lagged effect of the rapid increase in rates in an overly financialized system demands attention. Bottom Line: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the deflationary backdrop of the last several decades to an inflationary backdrop. I will be a much better seller of rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
57
US10YUS 10-Year Bond Yield | Chart #1 | The rejection of the re-test of the channel breakdown is seeing further downside follow-through. The yield is trading near the early-December lows of 3.4% of which a downside breach would create a further short term technical tailwind for bonds (i.e. yields down, bond prices up). US 10-Year Bond Yield | Chart #2 (not shown) | Note that the yield is close to it's first re-test of it's rising 200-day moving average since 29 December 2021. Usually, the 1st test after a prolonged absense is met with support, possible an overshoot to the downside followed by a rebound. Let's see how it acts if and when it gets there.
TVC:US10Y
by techpers
1
US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
2
USA need to cover chart and US10Y told us why?As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown. Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in range boxes 3 ( range 3.1% to 5.6%) and I think it is time to start another range box 3 ?!
TVC:US10Y
by AtareumFX
US10Y - US03MThis is another thing that is getting everyone EXCITED. It is going to invert soon. Once that happen, as you can see in the past, the Fed will PIVOT. Analysis also indicated that the MOVE Index shown previously will hit a new low the same time this 10y03m inverts. THE FED TYPICALLY CUTS RATES ON AVERAGE TWO MONTHS AFTER THE MOVE REACHES BOTTOM. So do you think the Fed will Pivot??? All I can say is expect more volatility this coming weeks. P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
TVC:US10Y
by i_am_siew
Next Recession ProjectionDescription The purpose of this idea is, based on past recessions, to try to predict when the next one could occur. Many factors could influence the future, but for now, we will focus on two of the most known indicators to predict a recession, the Yield Curve Inversion(ICV) and the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator. Usually, when the ICV stays below 0 for a period of time, it indicates that a recession will occur in the future. As can be seen, this indicator predicted the last three recessions: '90, '00, and '08. The ’20 recession is excluded. Moreover, the SPX chart is added to reference where the markets could go. The projection is indicated with pink color. Yield Curve Inversion Period The ICV period ranges between the time when the ICV went below 0% and the time of the last touch to 0%. The average for the last three periods is 425D. We are in the current period for 183D. Usually, while the ICV is below 0%, there is a high chance that the FED will not increase the interest rate or even pivot, as seen in that #1 and #2 periods. #1: 455D #2: 304D #3: 516D Projected: #4: 426D SPX While the ICV is below 0%, the SPX moved on sideways or even upwards. US Interest Rate The average for the last three periods is 253D. #1: 120D #2: 214D #3: 426D Projected: #4: 243D Sahm Rule Recession Indicator According to this indicator, once the ICV touches the last time 0%, there is a delay until the effects of a recession are seen. The average for the last three periods is 244D. #1: 214D #2: 213D #3: 307D Projected: #4: 244D Conclusion A recession could start at the beginning of 2024. This would also coincide with the Presidential Cycle theory, where the third year of the US presidential mandate is more bullish than bearish, and the fourth year is more bearish than bullish. Please keep in mind that this is purely speculation based on previous data, and there are many other factors that can change the outcome.
TVC:US10Y
by EthanOS
US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here? While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government. 
Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” . Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles. Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward: U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊 What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates? Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy? Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
2
Are U.S. Yield Curve Inversions Signaling 2023 Recession? Looking at the Inverted Yield Curve Chart s of the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 3mo Treasury (US10Y - US03M), along with the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 2yr Treasury (US10Y - US02Y) — are yields signaling a topping process? Or, should we even higher yields into 23'? 4-Hour Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Daily Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Weekly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Monthly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Top Chart: US10Y - US03M Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y Monthly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊 Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. SPY (SPX ES1!) 📊 Black Line: SPY Blue Line: US02Y Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. QQQ (NQ Nasdaq) 📊 Black Line: QQQ Blue Line: US02Y Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. DIA (Dow Jones Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA) 📊 Black Line: DIA Blue Line: US02Y Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. IWM (Russell 2000 Russell Small Caps RUT) 📊 Black Line: IWM Blue Line: US02Y Inverted Do you think that yields have reached their peak for this Federal Reserve tightening cycle here in late 22'? Or, will we see further rises in yields, putting more pressure on risk assets in the new year (23')? 👇🏼 Yield Curve Inversion Chart Template 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury Curve vs. Asset (SPY QQQ DIA IWM) Chart Template 📊👇🏼 www.tradingview.com
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
US10Y The 1D MA50 is the key. So far rejected.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame): Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far this is quite similar to the early August rise. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low. In order to extend selling the US10Y, we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (October 21 High) Resistance. So far the 1D MA50 seems to get rejected. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
2
dollar and yields more upthe bullish momentum in dxy/ bearish momentum in eur slowed down significantly most recently, this probably correlates with "an end in sight" of the FEDs interest rate hikes. nevertheless there are more hikes to come and we havent seen US10y yield ranging around common interest rate targets around 5%. the countermovement in dxy, the bullish break of eu's downtrend have endured for quite some time now and its probable we see the former momentum take over again for quite some time. prepare for a bullish dollar and a bearish eur again. targets for this something around early FEB next year, till then most rate hikes should be completed or announced.
TVC:US10YLong
by MrKrft
1